Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimmer4141
Don't understand how Cal is an underdog @ Colorado
On the surface, we're 4-4 and scoring 28.4ppg to 28.4ppg
One level down though, we're getting crushed 5.65 YPP to 4.86YPP. That's a big difference.
Primarily because we've run hotter than expectation on turnovers (+5) and 4th down conversions (20/31 in our favor)
You might believe we're actually good at getting picks because Wilcox looks to be such a smart defensive coach and our players are consistently in the right position, but #2 in the country is almost certainly above expectation.
That said, CU looks almost identical. 4-4 and 25.8ppg to 24.6ppg in spite of being outgained 5.92 ypp to 5.31ypp and +4 TOs (including 14/20 fumble recoveries which is all luck)
Three common opponents... we both got stomped by Washington, we both lost narrowly to Arizona and then obv the big outlier is we crushed Wazzu who crushed them. We even both have the same WWWLLLWL profile. The 5 opponents we don't have in common, Cal's are a bit tougher which gives them the edge.
Idk, nets out we look pretty even, maybe Cal has a slight, slight edge. Dunno about injuries. Then HFA, which is maybe a little greater b/c Boulder is a mile above sea level... makes sense to me