Quote:
Originally Posted by Holliday
You think any Big 12 Champ with 2 losses would make the playoff? I mean, their 1-loss champ probably gets shafted (unless it's specifically Oklahoma, maybe).
WVU probably not, Oklahoma at 1-loss is > 80% to make it. Would happily bet at 80% odds that they make it if 1-loss. They would end on an 8 game win streak, would have beaten ~5-7 top-25 teams and would have scheduled aggressively OOC. That's gonna get rewarded.
WVU's problem is they lost the only marquee noncon game, but their losses are pretty early. They too would end on an 8 game win streak with a murderers row... and either get to avenge the TCU loss or TCU will drop 2 on their own between now and then. Also helps that neither loss was at home and both were by 1 score. Hell, I'm even bullish Texas making it in if they win out (as evidenced by by 500-1 bet when they were 1-2).
There's a LOT of games left, totally possible we see several 2 or 3 loss champions. Lots of chaos to come.
Totally plausible that USC wins the Pac-12 with 2 or 3 losses
Totally plausible that a 2-loss Stanford or Wazzu team could win it as well.
Totally plausible Michigan beats OSU and Penn State, but also loses to Indiana (line is less than a touchdown) then beats Wisconsin to win it... or Wisconsin could lose to Indiana and Michigan and win it etc.
SEC, it's almost impossible to see anyone other than Bama or an 11-1 Auburn coming out of the SEC-W, but you could easily have a two loss winner out of the East... UGA could lose 2 of their last 3 (@ Auburn and @ GT) and then win the title game. That's not crazy at all.
ACC, NC State could totally beat Clemson, lose to ND or @Wake and then win the ACC at 11-2... Clemson could lose 2 of their last 3 (FSU and @ South Carolina) then win the ACC... GT or VT could easily lose another game and then win the ACC.
Also remember that lots of contenders (USC, Stanford, Miami, NC State) all play Notre Dame so there's big chances to pick up an additional loss without getting buried in the conference race. ND could beat Stanford and NC State and lose to Miami and USC, and then have Stanford and NCS go on to win their respective conferences at 3 and 2 losses and also end up with 3 losses itself.