Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Ames
I agreed with all of them--right up until that one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Ames
Lane far too aggressive there. Dumbass.
You're playing at bama, down 14-0 with 6 minutes left in the half, 4th and 1 at your own 31. You're 95% gonna lose no matter what you do
EV wise, I think the math says going for it on 4th and 1 pretty much anywhere is correct. Doubly so when you're an underdog, tripply so when you're an underdog and losing, quadruply so when your team's strength is the offense
Even more so in this spot... if you punt it, Bama often drives, gets a score of some kind without any time for you to hit back, and you're basically dead
If you get it, putting up a score probably also eats up enough time that Bama probably just goes into half up 14-7 and you're super live
If you miss, Bama prob scores again, but the silver lining is that they might leave you 2-3 minutes to try to get one back before half