Happy Holid--let's get down to business; It's rivalry week! It's time to finalize the conference championship games! It's make or break for bowling for a shocking number of teams! It's TWO days of full slates! And...Notre Dame!
Now for the bad news; this week is going to involve a lot of reading and parsing of divisional tiebreakers and whatnot. There won't be a test at the end though. Probably.
Matchup, Time (ET), TV
Tuesday, November 20
Ball State at Miami (Ohio) @ 7:00pm - ESPN+
While Ball State has managed to build an impressive 4-7 record, beating MiamiO would be the icing on the cake, killing the Red Hawks bowl and conference championsh dreams. Why, yes, 5-6 MiamO *does* still have a chance of winning the MACnon-Michigans division! If they win here plus Buffalo loses at Bowling Green (only a 14 point spread) while Ohio beats Akron (as a 22 point favorite) to set up a 3-way tie, then as they are all 1-1 against each other, 9-3 Buffalo would be the first team eliminated under the MAC tiebreaker rules (record against the #4 team=Bowling Green), then Ohio would be eliminated due to the head-to-head! Fascinating, isn't it?
Quote:
Tiebreaking Procedures
Divisional Champions
The divisional championship shall be decided on conference winning percentage. If two or more teams are tied for the championship, they shall be considered divisional co-champions. The following tie-breaking formula shall be used to determine which team will represent that division in the MAC Championship game:
1. Head-to-head competition:
a. In the event of a multiple-team (two or more teams) tie, the team with the best head-to-head record amongst the tied teams wins the tie-breaker.
b. In a two-team tie, head-to-head competition will be the first criteria.
c. If two teams did not play, the second criteria is used to break the tie.
2. Record of tied teams within the division [versus rank order, highest to lowest, of division teams]:
a. The above tie-breaker procedure is used to determine rank order in the division.
b. Team(s) eliminated in the second tie-breaker criterion are not included in further consideration in the tie- breaking formula.
c. Head-to-head competition is again used to break the tie between the remaining tied teams.
3. Comparison of conference winning percentage of cross-over opponents of tied teams:
a. Tie-breaker is awarded to the team whose cross-division opponents had the best cumulative conference winning percentage.
b. Head-to-head competition is used to break the tie between the two tied teams.
4. If multiple teams remain tied, the final tie-breaker is as follows:
a. Record of tied teams versus cross-division opponents in rank order.
b. Head-to-head competition is used to break the tie between the two tied teams.
NIU at Western Michigan @ 7:00pm - ESPNU
NIU doesn't have to worry about any of that as they already have the MACMichigans division wrapped up. Western Michigan has made the 6 win mark, too, so maybe this game will be a complete dud except NIU still has a shot at that elusive TEN WIN SEASON while WMU can still crush that dream, as only a 5.5 point dog!
Thursday, November 22
Colorado State at Air Force @ 3:30pm - CBSSN Mississippi State at Ole Miss @ 7:30pm - ESPN
Egg Bowl begins rivalry week! In this game you can toss the records out which is good because one of them has really sucked while the other has a bad record anyway. Ole Miss isn't really trying to make a Bowl since they're banned from it. Cowbell has, I'll admit, been playing pretty well recently. Should still be ashamed of themselves though.
Friday, November 23
Akron at Ohio @ 12:00pm - CBSSN
Possibly pivotal MACtion as Ohio also still has a shot at winning the MACnon-Michigans should MiamO falter and Buffalo go on to lose at Bowling Green.
Buffalo at Bowling Green @ 12:00pm - ESPNU
Zoiks! It's SIMULTANEOUS MACtion! Sure Bowling Green is 3-8 but they've won 2 in a row!
Central Michigan at Toledo @ 12:00pm - ESPN3
Eastern Michigan at Kent State @ 12:00pm - ESPN3 Houston at Memphis @ 12:00pm - ABC
Of course the big question is if Ed Oliver will play or, failing that, since it'll be 55 and rainy, if they'll let him use one of the raincoats. A Memphis win could set up anywhere from a 2 to 4-team tie for the aac! west, but the way the tiebreakers work it'll actually be the winner of this game who wins the division. So it's essentially the division championship game!
Quote:
The following procedures will only be used to eliminate all but two teams, at which point the two-team tie-breaking procedure (head-to-head result) will be applied.
*Head-to-head (best record in games among the tied teams).
*Record in games played within the division.
*Record against the next highest placed team in the division (based on record in all Conference games, both divisional and non-divisional).
*Record against the next highest placed team in the division (based on record in divisional games).
*Record against common non-divisional opponents.
*Best overall winning percentage in all games.
*Highest CFP ranking following the last weekend of regular-season games.
*Coin toss.
And you can trust me on this one; winner Memphis would prevail in all tiebreaking scenarios whether it be 2, 3, or 4-way. Not that you can't trust me on all the other stuff.
Nebraska at Iowa @ 12:00pm - FOX
Cornado or whatever they call it--this year's "Hope Springs Eternal" game. Believe it or not, Nebraska has won 4 of their last 5 games with the only loss a 5 pointer to tOSU. So, logically, if Nebraska wins they'd either try to get a waiver for bowl eligibility or scramble to cram Akron or some other patsy next week. That'd be great! Sounds like bad news for Iowa, who's dropped 3 of 4. Reminds me of my favorite character from 'the One Armed Boxer vs. the Blind Master of the Flying Guillotine'; Tornado of Knives! Always wondered what the second round of that tournament was going to look like.
Texas at Kansas @ 12:00pm - FS1 Arkansas at Missouri @ 2:30pm - CBS
This is a weird game to be on CBS, but I think they're contractually obligated to get every team in (not sure if yearly or every other year). Another of the massive conspiracies against Alabama that is still better than the time they tried to make the Iron Bowl a goddamned Thanksgiving Day game. Not that these others aren't wonderful.
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama @ 3:00pm - ESPN+
East Carolina at Cincinnati @ 3:30pm - CBSSN Virginia at Virginia Tech @ 3:30pm - ABC
The Commonwealth Cup Trophy game? Ever wonder why there's no "Virginia State"? It's because it's a commonwealth. 7-4 Virginia is favored by 4, which is noteworthy for this series. 4-6 VT may or may not be able to get a waiver for a bowl if they win. Not hearing Fuente in the "hot seat" discussions, for some reason.
Oregon at Oregon State @ 4:00pm - FS1
Pee-you; we're really relying on rivalry magic to make this "Civil War" interesting. State has, if you dismiss Southern Utah (Thunderbirds), won 1 game and kept 1 other one competitive. Oregon on the other hand continues to be gorgeous and tall if nothing else.
UCF at USF @ 4:00pm - ESPN
UCF you know. USF you may vaguely remember started out 7-0 before dropping their last 4 and assumably soon to be 5 and maybe a 6th in a bowl. Last year's game, however, was a classic of the form; 49-42 with 6 lead changes, 1200 yards of offense, and the deal sealed with a 95 yard kickoff return touchdown with a minute left.
Oklahoma at West Virginia @ 8:00pm - ESPN
Oh my, it's a pick 'em. Pardon me I...just need to go move some cash around. I'll be curious to see where WVU falls in this week's committee rankings from 9th. Probably tOSU/UCF are 9 & 10 in some order, then we (sigh) have to assume 11. Florida who looked better than Alabama against Idaho, and if they put West Virginia there at 12 I'd take it to mean they're still thinking of them as live. Less so if they drop behind Texas or Penn State or both. Poor Oklahoma; that offense is such an outlier it isn't even appreciated. Like, WVU is the #4 offense in adjusted YPP, but the margin is the same as the one between West Virginia and #75 Georgia Southern (or Duke). So, yes, WVU's defense is *better* yet it matters not.
18 Washington at 8 Washington State @ 8:30pm - FOX
The Apple Cup and effectively the PAC12 North Division Championship Game! Wazzu is actually favored by 3.5 and depending on which metrics you look at that's either way too little or too much or even the wrong team favored. This will be the best defense Wazzu has played all year, top 10 in both total AND passing adjusted YPP. The only defense that was even close was Cal's who held them to a season-low 19 points. Meanwhile it actually looks like Washington has faced and beaten two teams with "better" offenses, holding Stanford and ASU to 23 and 20 points. Looks like they're back to Jake Browning.
Saturday, November 24
13 Florida at Florida State @ 12:00pm - ABC
Florida is favored by just four here and that should be the nail in the coffin in any discussion about them being good. There could be some truth to FSU playing for pride like to keep a bowl steak alive; their win over Boston College represented their first victory over any team ever ranked this season, and only the second that was even close! The other was the 1 point loss to Miami. See, regional pride, bowl streak pride, let's hope it comes together for another day. Because it occurs to me that technically, somewhere around West Virginia's "get in" scenario is the possibility that Florida has some equity (committee seems to love them). Probably also need UGA to lose to GT though.
Meanwhile, if Florida really wanted to crush Florida State's self-image, the could just schedule UCF and call it a bigger game. Plus Florida is always saying they don't want to play an OOC game outside of Florida. Either way we get a problem solved.
Georgia Tech at 5 Georgia @ 12:00pm - SECN
Clean Old Fashioned Hate! GT has really turned their season around after losing 3 in a row--now winners of 6 out of 7 and 4 in a row. Georgia has also won 4 in a row plus 24 of its last 27. In the Kirby Smart era, Georgia is 1-1 in this series, but with a total point margin of +30. Only favored by 17.5, bet up from an opening 17. After seeing this:
I can't help but wonder if they might find a way to get Fields a few more snaps.
Marshall at FIU @ 12:00pm - Facebook
Yeah watch it on Facebook! Conference USA East championship game. Win and in for both teams. In to the Conference USA Championship game at lovely Birmingham, AL!
4 Michigan at 10 Ohio State @ 12:00pm - FOX
The Big Game and effectively the B1Ggood Division Championship Game (just like they drew it up). My casual observation of these teams mostly based on a few highlights and hearing from their fans here is that Ohio State has somehow managed to have a bad defense and no rushing attack to speak of despite their typical oodles of talent while Michigan is so close to perfect that their loss to undefeated Notre Dame is a sin for which they should never forgive themselves and/or self-ban from the playoffs. Anyway I'm sure you guys know more about this one than me so please fill us in on the deficiencies of your opponent and any secret stuff you know about their momma.
Navy at Tulane @ 12:00pm - ESPNU
Green Waves need this win to make a bowl and possible memorialization as co-champions of their division (or tri-champions, or quad-champions). Making a bowl is a big deal for Tulane and they'd probably put up a banner for the divisional title!
Purdue at Indiana @ 12:00pm - ESPN2
Don't know if they have a name for this one or even care but they are both in the same state (Indiana) and both 5-6 so...TWO TEAM ENTER, ONE TEAM LEAVE!!! I'm a little confused--is Jeff Brohm still coaching Purdue? Still? Seems like yes, granted not very well as they've dropped 3 of 4 after smoking Ohio State.
I'm just kidding--it's the Old Oaken Bucket!
Syracuse at Boston College @ 12:00pm - ESPN
Two teams coming off losses now looking at a vulnerable opponent in front of them. Possibly a "seeding ACC bowl tie-ins" game. Like that Geico commercial spoofing the Chevy commercial; "WHAT?!? A better little bowl?!?" Although maybe they also think of this as the battle for the ACC's Northernmost title or something. Cuse is trying to take another step toward a ten win season but not sure if they'll have their starting quarterback available.
Texas Tech vs. Baylor (in Arlington, TX) @ 12:00pm - FS1
WKU at LA Tech @ 12:00pm - CBSSN NC State at North Carolina @ 12:20pm - Raycom Sports
Meaningless game for us but, if I know my NC State fans, this game matters to them.
Wake Forest at Duke @ 12:30pm - RSN/ESPN3
Wake needs a win to make a bowl. Duke's also probably playing that bowl-ladder game, plus they just plain like being dicks.
Old Dominion at Rice @ 1:00pm - ESPN+ Georgia Southern at Georgia State @ 2:00pm - ESPN+
Oh yeah--Now THESE two REALLY hate each other! Georgia State is in fact still mad that Georgia State came along and STOLE their abbreviation! MUST KILL!
New Mexico State at Liberty @ 2:00pm - ESPN3 Troy at Appalachian State @ 2:30pm - ESPN+
Effectively the SunBelt East division championship game heading to the innaugural SunBelt Championship Game! Appy is a full 10.5 point favorite, but remember Troy *did* beat Nebraska!
Wyoming at New Mexico @ 2:30pm - ATTSN Louisiana at ULM @ 3:00pm - ESPN+
The battle of little Louisianna and possible SunBelt West divisional title game should Lafayette win while for LaMo they'd need to win AND Arkansas State lose to Texas State. This one would just come down to head-to-head so need to post the full tiebreaker rules. Besides, what's far more interesting (and hilarious) is the procedure for deciding the site of the championship game:
Quote:
Tiebreaking Procedure for Determination of Host Site
The Championship Game shall be played at the home venue of the Division Champion with highest winning percentage in Conference games only.
The following tie-breaker procedure is used to determine the host location for the Sun Belt Conference Football Championship Game if necessary.
*Head to head result between tied teams;
*If still tied, if one team was ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings and wins in the final weekend of the conference regular season, it will be declared the host. If in that same scenario, the team that was the highest-ranked team in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings loses in the final weekend of the conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings will be used to determine the host;
*If there are multiple teams ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings, the highest-ranked team that wins in the final weekend of the conference regular season will be declared the host;
*If none of the ranked teams win on the final weekend of the conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings that include all games on the final weekend of the conference regular season, will be used to determine the host;
*If no teams are ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings going into the final weekend of the conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings that include all games on the final weekend of the conference regular season, will be used to determine the host;
*If still tied, the team with the highest winning percentage against all common conference opponents shall be the host;
*If still tied, the team with the highest overall (conference and non-conference) winning percentage against FBS teams shall be the host;
*If still tied, coin toss will be conducted by the Commissioner.
Bwahahaha--that's 3 callouts for what to do if one or multiple teams are in the CFP rankings! Ought to call it the OptimistBelt!
Southern Miss at UTEP @ 3:00pm - ESPN+
Stanford at UCLA @ 3:00pm - Pac-12N
UAB at Middle Tennessee @ 3:00pm - ESPN3 Arizona State at Arizona @ 3:30pm - FS1
Duel in the Desert although technically it's in a city in the desert and grass is kinda helpful to the process.
Auburn at 1 Alabama @ 3:30pm - CBS
The Iron Bowl? More like "Let's See if Auburn has Iron Bowels While We Kick the Everloving **** out of Them". Between the embarrassment with Citadel and last year's loss at Auburn, I don't think we can expect to see the gentle Nick Saban in this one.
Illinois at Northwestern @ 3:30pm - BTN Maryland at Penn State @ 3:30pm - ABC
Yep, Maryland is still trying to earn that bowl berth. PSU's been shaky winning lately.
Minnesota at Wisconsin @ 3:30pm - ESPN2
Minny can make a bowl, too! See, everyone gets a shot!
Pitt at Miami (FL) @ 3:30pm - ESPN
Your ACCbad division winner. I mean Pitt.
SMU at Tulsa @ 3:30pm - CBSSN
SMU trying to make a bowl. Tulsa trying to prove those close losses in the face of big spreads were no fluke (Narrator; "They were").
Temple at UConn @ 3:30pm - ESPNU
Arkansas State at Texas State @ 4:00pm - ESPN3
Rutgers at Michigan State @ 4:00pm - FOX Tennessee at Vanderbilt @ 4:00pm - SECN
Needs a name. Winner goes bowling. UT may have to go with the QB from Stanford (Chryst). Vandy's is a guy named Shurmur who's talents as QB may make him a coach or analyst some day.
Charlotte at Florida Atlantic @ 6:00pm - Stadium
FaU and Lane in the hunt for a bowl game here.
Colorado at California @ 7:00pm - Pac-12N
Colorado needs a win for a bowl. Cal already in but still has a chance for 8 wins with the Big Game rescheduled for next week (fire allowing).
Kansas State at Iowa State @ 7:00pm - FS1
Kansas State makes a bowl with a win! Like I said, a truly inordinate number of teams in this particular boat.
Kentucky at Louisville @ 7:00pm - ESPN2
The Governor's Cup but really the "When Do We Play in Basketball" game. It's a chance to shine, but probably Kentucky will just make it super boring anyway.
North Texas at UTSA @ 7:00pm - ESPN+
San Jose State at Fresno State @ 7:00pm - ESPNU South Carolina at 2 Clemson @ 7:00pm - ESPN
The Palmetto Bowl, or "the White Trash Palm Tree" game. I'm afraid to even look at the---Jedsus, 25 point spread. In the 6 games since the quarterbackless squeaker over Syracuse, Clemson has outscored their (all ACC) opponents 302-49.
LSU at Texas A&M @ 7:30pm - SECN
LSU's first game since Alabama, unless you count the 7 point win over Arkansas, where they heroically looked like they might cover the spread for a while. I'll admit I'm curious to see if the committee decides losing at TAMU is as good as a win as well. Not sure how TAMU has done it as it still looks like Kellen Mond back there, but it does seem they play a lot better at home. Also LSU is overated garbage that lucked into a Georgia brainfart gameplan and Miami before we realized they suck and they still have the second worst quarterback in the SEC (thank god for Arkansas).
3 Notre Dame at USC @ 8:00pm - ABC
LOL, USC will be shooting for bowl eligibility in this game. Actually it'd be great if "expected" USC somehow showed up for this game. Never thought I'd say this but I'm really looking forward to ND being back in their regular uniforms. Thank you for finally settling the question that, yes, I do hate the Yankees more.
Oklahoma State at TCU @ 8:00pm - FOX
It's TCU fighting for bowl eligibility! Which reminds me of when my HS team was on the verge of making the playoffs with a win and all the seniors decided another week of practice was just going to suck so **** that. Of course, we ran the triple option, so maybe TCU won't decide the same.
Nevada at UNLV @ 9:30pm - CBSSN
The Fremont Cannon. Yes, that *IS* a cannon on the line along with the freedom to paint it and roll it around or something.
BYU at 19 Utah @ 10:00pm - FS1
Holy War. That's what they call it although I'd think BYU vs Liberty or Utah-Notre Dame would be more appropriate. I guess "Mormon War" was a little too on the nose? Poor Utah. Should be banging on the door of the top ten.
14 Utah State at 21 Boise State @ 10:15pm - ESPN
Not a rivalry but it is a showdown between ranked teams AND the effective WAC Mountain West West Mountain division championship game! Winner gets to host the Fresnos. Also, yes, Boise is a favorite BUT they are also ranked, so the "ranked team as a road dog to an unranked" jinx is not on!
Hawaii at San Diego State @ 10:30pm - ESPNU
Well it'll be on! Hawaii's already managed a 7-5 record, that feels like a mistake to me, somehow.
I thought the same thing about Florida, if the odds makers have them as only a 4 point favorite than they must suck, especially with Michigan as a 3.5 favorite vs OSU.
As meh as Florida is, if they're only favored by 4 any and all bets on Florida are the very freest of money. I don't care that they beat BC, Florida State is abysmal.
Such a sick slate, and this season has been super short on chaos so hoping it delivers.
Not sure how WV is a pick against Oklahoma. I'm not exaggerating when I say I think we should go for it on every reasonable 4th down, (i.e. 4th and 1 on your own 20, 4th and 6 at midfield), kick onside every time and go for 2 every time. We might both score 8 touchdowns but if we go 5/8 on 2 point conversions that'll be the difference!
Other things I think are true:
No idea how ASU is only -2 against Arizona. ASU is legitimately decent (beat Sparty, USC and Utah, barely lost @ Oregon and @ Washington), and Arizona is a ****ing dumpster fire.
Texas @ Kansas seems like a good candidate for Chaos. Everybody is already penciling them in to the B12CG, but Kansas has been playing better lately and did beat UT a couple years ago... (would be real bad for WV)
Not sure how Nebraska is such a big dog to Iowa, seems more like it should be -3. Nebraska is also legitimately decent. Then again, Sagarin has it at 17.5 so what do I know.
Houston @ Memphis will be sick. Mostly bc I bet an insane amount on Houston to win the AAC when they were 3 losses up on Memphis and now I need them to pull a big upset to go to the CG. Oliver storyline is good drama too
Apple cup will be lit too. Everybody's talking about Minshew and Leach, but Wazzu has a really good defense this year too.
GT's been playing well, having won 6 of 7. Beating UGA wouldn't really be CHAOS though, doesn't change much in the overall picture. (Helpful for the WVUs and UCFs of the world who could now be assured UGA falls behind them with a Bama loss)
North Carolina might be the unluckiest team ever. They are averaging 6.0 YPP and giving up 6.1 YPP , averaging 27ppg and giving up 34ppg and yet somehow they are 2-8
Can't imagine it really ever matters for Clemson, but if Cuse, Pitt and NC State all lose, they probably end the season as the only ranked team in the entire ACC. If Clemson loses, and Michigan and Oklahoma win out... could CLEMSON be the one outside looking in?
Also massive LOL at "number 7" LSU being a 2 point dog to 7-4 ATM
Oh no, I forgot to highlight Illinois at Northwestern. Sorry guys, didn't mean that as a slight or to make you feel left out--it's rivalry week! Want everyone to feel at home here (especially MyTurnToRaise).
Illinois at Northwestern @ 3:30pm - BTN
Now the "Land of Lincoln" trophy (ever since the NCAA mandated that all Native American imagery deemed hostile and abusive must be removed from college athletics), previously the "Sweet Sioux Tomahawk", previously the "Cigar Store Indian Chief Illiniweek" (before it was stolen and probably still stands in some restricted country club), previously an actual human scalp. I've also heard it referred to as "the Battle of the Windy ****ties" and the "Passive Aggressive Bowl" due to the large amount of cutting asides muttered under everyone's breath.
Of all the college rivalries, this one may represent the biggest clash of cultures as NW is refined and intellectual while Illinois is a bunch of ignorant bumpkins, but it's what they have in common that binds them; consistently sucking at football. This year Illinois appears to be even worse than usual, but a win here would pretty much make them even. Sad really.
OK, OK; I just made one of those trophies up. But which one?
Such a sick slate, and this season has been super short on chaos so hoping it delivers.
Not sure how WV is a pick against Oklahoma. I'm not exaggerating when I say I think we should go for it on every reasonable 4th down, (i.e. 4th and 1 on your own 20, 4th and 6 at midfield), kick onside every time and go for 2 every time. We might both score 8 touchdowns but if we go 5/8 on 2 point conversions that'll be the difference!
obviously its a different system, but i was at that Army vs OU game where army converted 80% of their 4th down conversions. its clearly doable against OU. there's very little reason not to in a game like that.
Thanks guys, the writeups are fun for me especially on a week like this when they pretty much write themselves. Saw an ESPN headline about "Guide to the 37 games that matter this weekend" and, while I did not actually count, that seems about right. I cannot remember such a closing weekend.
GT has been playing well BUT it hasn't been against particularly good competition. The most comparable opponent they've played was Clemson and they got straight-up murdered at home 49-21 and the YPP story was an even worse 7.3-3.2! I also think Georgia's bend but don't break defense is about optimal to handle the triple-option, and on the other side of the ball GT's defense is so small and weak Georgia may actually be able run the ball into the end zone from the 1!
that write up