What a great week of games! Mostly win or die now, although "die" really just means getting knocked down a rung and arguably another win or die scenario. Because it's kids it still works psychologically though. Except Nebraska and UCLA; they're up against the 7th loss kind of death like Arkansas was before they lost to Vanderbilt.
Matchup, Time (ET), TV
Thursday, November 1
NIU at Akron @ 7:00pm - CBSSN
Ohio at Western Michigan @ 7:00pm - ESPNU
If you haven't had enough MACTION already this week, congratulations.
Temple at 12 UCF @ 7:30pm - ESPN
Temple is coming in on a 3 game win streak and has won 5 of their last 6. UCF is coming in on a 20 game win streak, of course, and would desperately like to look dominant in this game. Fortunately/unfortunately for UCF, I've actually got Temple as their toughest remaining opponent; it's fortunate in that the rest of their schedule is easier, and it's unfortunate in both the sense they may lose AND probably won't get much credit if they do win (since Temple hilariously started the season by losing to Villanova).
How has Temple put together a decent season? Pass defence. They are top ten in adjusted passing YPP allowed, and #1 in Passing S&P+ despite being fairly mediocre at getting to the QB. They are average-to-good at almost everything else, but they do appear to suck at special teams.
Unfortunately for UCF, they've kind of struggled at living up to their expected passing numbers this year. Aaaaand also suck at special teams outside of having a good kicker.
If I were going to pick a game where UCF would lose this season, this would be it. And I do, and I have. Not saying it's free money, but I think the +325 odds are MORE than fair.
Friday, November 2
Pitt at 25 Virginia @ 7:30pm - ESPN2
Lookie there, it's ranked Virginia! Sure, it took 7 out of the bottom 8 in the top 25 losing last week. Sure, Virginia's 3 game win streak over "respectable" teams is actually more like "teams we once thought were respectable". Sure they've lost 2 out of 3 road games. Sure, most advanced metrics have them in the 50s or 60s, but all that stuff misses the point:
*They're here!
*They're Cavalier!
*They're in a 3-way tie for the lead in the ACC Coastal, with games coming up against the other two (Pitt (tee, hee) and Virginia Tech) plus Georgia Tech who they humiliated into throwing 22 passes last year!
If they can take care of business the next 3 weeks while they're favored, they may not even need to beat VT to make the ACC Championship game, but merely want to do so for ****s and giggles! Who woulda' thought?
Oh, and if you're wondering; "6". That's how many of the 22 passes GT completed (not counting the 2 interceptions).
WKU at Middle Tennessee @ 8:00pm - CBSSN
Colorado at Arizona @ 10:30pm - FS1
Losers of 3 in a row versus losers of 2 out of 3, who are on a 1-game hot streak having taken out the golden child. Still a pretty decent matchup for a late Friday game.
Saturday, November 3
Air Force at Army @ 12:00pm - CBSSN
The second "Commander in Chief" matchup; Army is the favorite, but then so was Navy and we all know how that turned out! Oh, nobody knows? It was Air Force in a rout. So they could wrap it up right here.
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan @ 12:00pm - ESPN3
A pivotal game in the Mac Michigans division.
24 Iowa State at Kansas @ 12:00pm - FSN
Just highlighting this since Kansas beat TCU last week, evidently.
Louisville at 2 Clemson @ 12:00pm - ABC
Just a 39 point spread. Somehow I feel that's a touch low.
Memphis at East Carolina @ 12:00pm - ESPNU
Michigan State at Maryland @ 12:00pm - ESPN2
Oh yeah, Maryland now has to go out and play a football game. Pretty weird but at this point I think having the entire team actually arrive at the game is kind of a victory in itself. So in a way they'll both be winners. In another, more accurate way, Michigan State will be the winner. Remember when Maryland fired a coach with a 75-50 record and refused to let their designated "Head Coach in Waiting" take the job, and it was James Franklin? Remember when they hired Randy Edsall instead? Remember when "Head Coach in Waiting" was an actual job title and everyone acted like it was some reasonable, normal thing? Ah, memories.
Nebraska at 10 Ohio State @ 12:00pm - FOX
What does this game have to do with Kentucky, you ask? Kentucky has been so much better than projected on defense, I can find no comparable team. Except the Ohio State, just in the opposite way. With Kentucky being top 3 and tOSU around average, it is eerily as if the Ohio State and Kentucky defenses switched bodies or something before the season. Not saying that's what happened, but I'm not not saying that's what happened! I have a bit of a sinking feeling that Scott Frost is not really going to try to win this game, which is too bad because they might have a chance if they'd stay away from the near-constant barrage of personal foul penalties, plus if they win they have like a 10% chance of winning out and making a bowl!
Oklahoma State at Baylor @ 12:00pm - FS1
Rutgers at Wisconsin @ 12:00pm - BTN
South Carolina at Ole Miss @ 12:00pm - SECN
19 Syracuse at Wake Forest @ 12:00pm - RSN/ESPN3
Look, every game is dangerous for Syracuse, especially road games. If you're Wake Forest, who else are you going to try to sneak up on?
20 Texas A&M at Auburn @ 12:00pm - ESPN
For the second week in a row, your proverbial "ranked team as a road dog to an unranked" and they never win. Except Kentucky last week--team of destiny. A loss here sends TAMU toward their 7-5 destiny. Remind me, WTF is Auburn's deal, again?
Georgia Tech at North Carolina @ 12:15pm - Raycom Sports
That excellent-looking new GT quarterback is benched in favor of the senior leader but "will get some snaps" or something. Probably the wings are in favor of that move. And definitely North Carolina.
San Jose State at Wyoming @ 2:00pm - ATTSN
Texas State at Georgia State @ 2:00pm - ESPN+
Georgia Southern at ULM @ 3:00pm - ESPN3
Marshall at Southern Miss @ 3:00pm - Facebook
South Alabama at Arkansas State @ 3:00pm - ESPN+
Florida State at 21 NC State @ 3:30pm - ABC
Another opportunity to catch FSU taking a beatdown. I imagine Willie Taggart is not particularly worried about NC State's defensive line. Oh, that's right, Francois got hurt in garbage time last week. Will he play this week or will it be that stick guy from last year? Now there's a guy who could take a few hits!
6 Georgia at 9 Kentucky @ 3:30pm - CBS
Divisional Championship weekend in the SEC kicks off with a 12 point home dog who's kind of a scrappy underdog except for the whole basketball thing. Which are you going to believe kids; your own eyes or what Vegas tells ya? I like Kentucky's chances except for them not being very good and probably mainly just wanting to not get embarrassed. Don't think of that as a slight--not getting embarrassed is an important life skill right up there with knowing when to quit and knowing when to lie. It's just not particularly helpful for winning big time football games is all.
In case you missed it, Georgia has been picking up a bit of a peanut gallery (and not just AngerPush):
16 Iowa at Purdue @ 3:30pm - ESPN2
I could be wrong, but I think this might still be a relevant game in the B1G bad division.
Kansas State at TCU @ 3:30pm - FS1
Liberty at UMass @ 3:30pm - 11 Sports / NESN / WZBJ-24
Louisiana at Troy @ 3:30pm - ESPN+
Minnesota at Illinois @ 3:30pm - BTN
Navy at Cincinnati @ 3:30pm - ESPNU
Tulane at USF @ 3:30pm - CBSSN
Classic trap game coming off their first loss of the season against a sometimes-game Tulane who's eyes have probably been bulging out of their sockets watching the Georgia Tech film.
UTEP at Rice @ 3:30pm - ESPN3
13 West Virginia at 17 Texas @ 3:30pm - FOX
Two teams still alive for both the conference title and the playoff, believe it or not. Texas is only a small favorite but WVU winning here would probably shoot them right into committee consciousness! I guess we're assuming Texas' regular QB will start.
22 Boston College at Virginia Tech @ 3:45pm - Raycom Sports
Not only is BC ranked--they're also favored on the road here. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
14 Penn State at 5 Michigan @ 3:45pm - ESPN
It's the last game in the ILOVEPOKERsomenumber sweepstakes! Michigan takes this one and ILP's back in full-throated support of Wolverine historical season! All they have to do is outsmart James Franklin. Yes you're right--it shouldn't be that hard when you put it that way.
Alcorn State at New Mexico State @ 4:00pm - AggieVision
Charlotte at Tennessee @ 4:00pm - SECN Alt.
This is only a 21 point spread and a team that's been pretty much thrown under the bus by their coaches and athletic director who obviously has designs on being the coach again since the Alabama game. It's about time a Sunbelt team pulled one of these out.
Missouri at 11 Florida @ 4:00pm - SECN
Another game Florida can totally lose and it wouldn't be that big of a deal. Florida should be a nice break for the Missouri offense, coming off the Kentucky defense. Gotta' use these phrases when the opportunity is there. Mizzu's run defense is absolutely bone-crushing, so looking at you, Franks!
15 Utah at Arizona State @ 4:00pm - Pac-12N
The sole member of last week's 18-25 ranked to not lose their game takes on a team coached by a bunch of NFL fossils that I must admit, has not been the tire fire I expected. Capping USC and Michigan State are their big accomplishments, but this would be bigger than either of those. Then there's that weird tidbit that each of their 4 losses has been by exactly 7 points, and I for one would certainly consider adding a fifth to be a great accomplishment, despite the spread being *very intelligently* set at exactly +7 here!
Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina @ 5:00pm - ESPN+
A bounce-back game for the formerly ranked Mountaineers against one of the Sunbelt's mediocre (for the SunBelt) examples.
Duke at Miami (FL) @ 7:00pm - ESPN2
Battle of 2-game losing streaks, with Duke also having dropped 3 of 4 after a 4-0 start against a fairly decent schedule. Miami is at least still alive in the divisional race, and of course *could* just run a desperation kickoff-lateral-style play any time they wish to score a touchdown.
Houston at SMU @ 7:00pm - ESPNU
UConn at Tulsa @ 7:00pm - CBSSN
3 Notre Dame at Northwestern @ 7:15pm - ESPN
The Irish are a big favorite here, but (while I have not watched a single snap of a Northwestern game this year) NW *has* won 4 in a row including @Sparty and Wisconsin last week and only lost by 3 to Michigan right before this streak! OK, OK; it's weird they escaped from Rutgers by only 3. Looks like Notre Dame needs to work on their "eye test" skills. Perhaps they've been playing down to their competition--winning 1 score games against Pitt and Vanderbilt already, and at home. Northwestern is...in the lead for the B1G bad division? Well, I guess Duke and Akron are not in the B1G, so sure.
Florida Atlantic at FIU @ 7:30pm - Stadium
LA Tech at 18 Mississippi State @ 7:30pm - SECN
Believe it or not this is kind of a rivalry game, as Cowbell does not have a great history of being a competitive program and they traditionally recruited the same junior college circuit. Mississippi State is a big 23.5 point favorite, and I think that's hilarious. Like that's the "they really turned the corner against TAMU and now they're going to be as good as we expected" number instead of the "LOL Aggies" number. LaTech *did* keep LSU within 17 at LSU and has logged wins @North Texas and @Florida Atlantic.
UCLA at Oregon @ 7:30pm - FOX
UCLA is now 2-6 and I suppose the announcers may need to start considering the possibility they may not make it to the Rose Bowl this year. Meanwhile if this QB can't start dominating more games, I suppose he could always just put himself out to stud. There are worse ways to make a living; garbageman, telemarketing, accounting...
UTSA at UAB @ 7:30pm - beIN SPORTS
1 Alabama at 4 LSU @ 8:00pm - CBS
2nd part of a rare CBS doubleheader, for the other divisional championship, essentially. You're probably familiar with Alabama by now; best QB, best offense (now), 2nd best defense, bad kicker, strict adherance to their maniacal coach's fixation of "playing up to our standard" which amounts to murderous humiliation of anyone they can. I think LSU has done a fine job of pretending to be good enough to be here but expect an exposure is in order. The little tricks coach 0 used to throw off UGA are simply not going to be available against a Saban staff with two weeks' to prepare.
7 Oklahoma at Texas Tech @ 8:00pm - ABC
Not even a trap game so much as a dangerous opponent on the road. The total is set at a paltry 77, which seems like a lot since TTech is aiming to hang their hats on their defense this year.
Stanford at Washington @ 9:00pm - Pac-12N
I'm getting a little confused about how relevant this game is at this point, but I supposed a little yackity sax and it'll matter who wins this one. Vaguely recall hearing Washington has been toying with some other QB due to various disappointing performances, while Stanford's possibly hypochondriac running back *may not* be hobbling around until after the game starts. If he's not a hypochondriac, does that mean there's some sort of wormhole between him and the coaches so they can't *see* he's limping before giving him the ball again?
USC at Oregon State @ 10:00pm - FS1
BYU at Boise State @ 10:15pm - ESPN2
Something to hold your attention for a little while. Be great if they let BYU wear their home blues!
San Diego State at New Mexico @ 10:15pm - ESPNU
23 Fresno State at UNLV @ 10:30pm - CBSSN
Last tuneup before the deciding matchups with Boise and San Diego State.
California at 8 Washington State @ 10:45pm - ESPN
Cal goes for the unexpected Washington sweep against the surprising Cougs. Surprising in a number of ways; surprising they turned a mediocre grad transfer into the nation's leading passer after their starting QB comitted suicide, surprising they are 7-1, surprising the committee ranked them 11th claiming their "eye test" was the reason despite their laughable OOC and 1 win over a decent team by more than 4 points (Oregon, currently 50th in Sagarin), and surprising they managed to blow the USC game.
Utah State at Hawaii @ 11:59pm - Spectrum
Well not being able to see this one kinda' sucks.
