It’s always funny, I think the committee rankings are always pretty good (ie close to “average Vegas rankings with my “what % of the time would a top 5 team achieve this record or getter against this schedule” metric, then flip teams if they are close and one has H2H)

But their explanations are always so bad and incoherent I can’t reconcile the actual rankings with the gibberish they spit out

But yeah this seems right. Anchoring more to power (Bama up) than I think they should, but whatever.

Also Cincy is going to be fine. The odds that Bama, Oregon and the OSU/msu winner win out are really, really small.

thats not the only way they dont make it though. OU and probably Michigan is a lock to pass Cincy if they win out and unlike other teams Bama usually only drops 3 spots max when they lose, Bama being 4 spots ahead of Cincy this week is the committee preparing to put in 2 loss Bama over undefeated Cincy.

Team A:
#26 in Sagarin
6-2 (zero committee top-25 wins)
Best wins: @#35, #46
Losses: #3, #144

Team B:
#10 in Sagarin
5-3 (two committee top-25 wins)
Best wins: #9, @#12
Losses: @#3, @#19, #91

One is unranked, one is #20...

I will bet a lot of money that undefeated cincy gets in over 2 loss Alabama.

Oregon is like ~85% to lose a game (a little skeptical of this #)

Oklahoma is like ~70% to lose a game

Bama is like ~20% to lose a game BEFORE the play UGA, and i don't even know if they would be favored against UGA

Sparty is literally 99% to lose a game, and they're 75% to lose a game in addition to Ohio State

Heck, OHIO STATE is better than a flip to lose a game

I think it depends; 1-loss Bama loses to UGA and they don't make it. 2 loss Bama (assuming it's not to NM State and/or Bama looks "normal" in their other games) beats undefeated UGA and probably both UGA and Bama are in. But the key is here:

Why not just assume the cartel is going to do what cartels do, coherence be damned?

Sagarin hates Sparty, it seems...

2 through 6 all struggled this week, although Oregon actually outgained Washington 477-166 and held them to 7 first downs and ended the game on their 1 yard line.

My guess is the committee gives more respect to LSU than they deserve and keeps Bama at 2

1 Georgia
2 Bama
3 Oregon
4 tOSU
5 Cincy
6 Michigan State
7 Michigan
8 Oklahoma
9 Notre Dame
10 ATM
11 OK State
12 Wake
13 BYU
14 Ole Miss
15 NC State
16 Auburn
17 Baylor
18 Wisconsin
19 Pittsburgh
20 Arkansas
21 Iowa
22 Penn State
23 Iowa State
24 Purdue
25 Utah

Don't think Houston will get in there yet, might slide in at ~25 or so. If they finish 11-1 they will be in there for sure though

Don't think UTSA is close

Think there is a pretty clear delineation at #11... everybody 11 and up is alive, and everybody except ATM and Notre Dame is probably > 90% if they win out

In the B1G, OSU, Michigan and MSU are all still live. OSU still has to play both and both MSU/UM still play PSU, and all 3 have an extra losable game plus a negative freeroll in the title game.

Cincy needs to win out and hope that Houston ends up ranked and that ND wins as much as possible

In the Pac, Oregon needs to fade Oregon State and Wazzu then beat Utah twice (once on the road, once in the title game)

In the Big-12, OU has a brutal closing slate @ Baylor, vs ISU and @ Oklahoma State. They *probably* need to win out, although I could see them losing to Baylor, then beating ranked 8-4 ISU and 9-3 OK State then beating the doors off Baylor in the title game to avenge their only loss. OK State just needs to win out and beat Oklahoma a second time in the title game.



Pitt is *probably* dead although if Clemson and NC State both win out and Tennessee manages to upset Georgia, Pitt could end up with 3 top-25 wins

Notre Dame has a classic "grind of mediums" slate, but could end up with as many as 3 ranked wins (Wisconsin, Purdue and UNC) but would need some help. They're super capped by Cincy though, so unless things go really sideways (UGA beats the doors off bama, Oregon loses, Iowa State wins the Big-12) and they BOTH make the playoff, it's hard to see ND jumping them

Unless Cincy gets wrecked in their title game or somehow loses two or something

There’s nothing better about #25 vs 26 compared to 21 vs 20, being top 25 is just an arbitrary cut off.

I mean I know all the metrics say Michigan > MSU, but they are literally ranked right next to each other and MSU JUST BEAT THEM

You can't have Oregon > OSU but then have Michigan > MSU. Makes zero sense

Can we just go back to the bcs and take the top 4? Seems like it would be better than this non sense

Good line. You gotta be wondering like me why they put Michigan ahead of Michigan State. Not that it matters. But I think it's a gremlin because if this was the final week and they were competing for 4 and 5 with Sparty heads up win, they put Sparty in guaranteed. So this is BS.

What would Georgia and Bama be favored over Cincy?

UGA 40+

Maybe you would pick them to win by 40, but that is a different point. I think the line around 17.5 to 20.5.

GoldenBears, do you have power rankings based on Vegas lines?

Oregon is fake, Cincy is fake, Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, UTSA … all fake. Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Baylor, Pitt -- fake.

All these teams are about the same, about an “8-out-10” in terms of excellence/greatness. So “fake” is a bit overstated, but meaning as potential champions they aren't the real deal. Wouldn’t it be fun if there was no Georgia, no Bama, and no Ohio State … and there was a 16-team playoff or so between these other teams? All those match ups are a pick’em, with no idea who is going to win any of the games.

So if Bama and/or Ohio State are eliminated with a second loss, both with a very tough schedule upcoming, all these other teams are about the same. Except the Monster Dogs.

Just a thought … a wide open tournament with every game a virtual pick’em and no big money-lines. Would be a happening thing.

Bama is not even close to being eliminated w a 2nd loss

There's a 0.0% chance a 1-loss Cincy would be selected over a 1-loss ND. ND just needs them to lose, doesn't matter by how much.

They already put 1-loss Michigan over 1-loss Sparty.

Got to be at least a 5% chance given that it was an 11 point game in South Bend.

But of course money talks so no higher than that.

especially since with A&m's third loss a 2 loss Bama still goes to the SECCG. If Bama loses to Arky then beats Auburn and UGA the committee is not going to leave them out.

And thats why I said IF they are eliminated with a second loss, because they sure are in without a second loss. Hello. However if you'd like to bet right now whether they get in or not with two losses, let's do it. There are scenarios in which they get in with two losses, with lots of help of course.

The PC has been consistent as far as sorting by losses. And it looks like there will be plenty of 1 loss conf champions.