Is this Iowa kind of a Wiscy replay from a few years ago ... where they climb super high without playing Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State, or anybody out of conference?
Is this Iowa kind of a Wiscy replay from a few years ago ... where they climb super high without playing Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State, or anybody out of conference?
Is this Iowa kind of a Wiscy replay from a few years ago ... where they climb super high without playing Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State, or anybody out of conference?
I think Iowa is a replay of 2015 Iowa where the Hawks started 12-0.
The current rankings for both Wisconsin (seventh) and unbeaten Iowa (16th) tell us a lot about how SP+ views efficiency and turnovers. The success rate measure -- how frequently you're gaining 50% of your required yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth -- makes up a healthy portion of the SP+ formula, and Wisconsin dominates Iowa on both sides of the ball.
Success rate (garbage time filtered out): Wisconsin offense 44.7% (53rd in FBS), Iowa 36.2% (119th)
Generally, these efficiency levels are just about the most predictable and sustainable part of football, and Wisconsin clearly has the edge here. But a large reason the Hawkeyes are unbeaten and looking good for the CFP while the Badgers are trying to scrape back to .500 is turnovers.
Turnovers committed: Iowa 5, Wisconsin 14 (11 in losses)
Turnovers created: Iowa 20, Wisconsin 3 (1 in losses)
Wisconsin has recovered only 36% of fumbles in its five games, while Iowa has recovered 58% of fumbles in six. Meanwhile, the Hawkeye secondary has turned 42 passes defensed (interceptions plus breakups) into 16 interceptions, while Wisconsin's defense has turned 26 passes defensed into just two picks. Based on national averages for fumble recovery rates and the ratio of INTs to breakups, Wisconsin's turnover margin should be about minus-1.6. It's minus-11. Iowa's should be about plus-6.4. It's plus-15.
Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz has been particularly careless with the football, and Iowa's secondary has been utterly brilliant at creating turnover chances. But SP+ sees these teams' turnover margins as unsustainable in two different directions, and as a predictive measure, it sees the Badgers as the more likely team to play at a top-10 level moving forward.
Well I guess I over-corrected on UK. After having Gators beat them no-brainer and thinking LSU was a tossup, UK showed big both times ... so I guessed UGA 14.5 over them at the poker table the other night. Only missed by about 10. Somebody else said 11 so I did better than him anhyway.
Sagarin top 10 / Sagarin rating / Vegas diff this week
UGA 96 (+4, which means Vegas has the line for this game 4 points higher than Sag)
Bama 93 (+3)
OSU 92 -
Iowa 87 (-6)
OU 87 (0)
Mich 87 -
PSU 86 -
ISU 85 (+1.5)
UF 85 (+5.5)
Cincy 85 (+4.5)
I’ll be impressed and surprised if Cincy is in the top 10. And if they are in the top 10, I’ll be suspicious that it’s only so they can feel the joy of bumping them down a couple spots each remaining week.
OU at 8 is legit. I think that’s correct. They’ve needed miracles to beat Tulane and Kansas. I would put cincy at 5 though. I think they did pretty good. Oregon over osu is correct imo