Seems Bama is getting iffy to deserve to be in at this point even without the second loss. So no way in with second loss ... but let's see what committee does upcoming because it may well be everybody but the committee thinking that way.

The season never (almost) goes the Wolverines way in terms of winning it all, exception 1997 title year, which was something to see. Even then leading OSU 20-0 the game got sick as hell. Otherwise there is always heartbreak waiting for them to amazing levels. Harbaugh only adds to that. I'll just go against them every step of the way here, getting a bunch this Saturday, and be fine with it if it breaks their way, which I say it won't but hope it does.

Since they hired Bo in 1969, the season run outs have just been ultra sick against them, with one exception which also hinted at the sickness. I saw them all so it's a thing ... and a thing I can't shake when handicapping Michigan.

We're guaranteed to beat Iowa. We'll even cover -10.5. Again they have no QB therefore they are drawing dead. We're also guaranteed to win the first round of the playoffs. We'll beat Cincy/OK St/ND. So this whole season is all gonna come down to Michigan vs Georgia assuming Georgia doesn't massively choke this week. Michigan has the best pass rush in the country and Georgia will be playing an immobile white guy at QB and we have an elite OL to neutralize their D. That game really shouldn't be that close. This is Michigan's year. People just need to accept it. The universe will finally be in balance. The winningest program in the history of the game will be back on top once again.

agree about 2 loss Bama but please can we not do the bolded just for one year

Wow, that's a lot of pronouncements. Only one season in the last 70 rolled Michigan's way in spite of constantly in the picture, and now at the first sign it might go their way you assume their way to victories as if its a bye. Kind of reminds me of UK football. Long held down, whenever it appears things are different they immediately assume wins over all comers but the most elite. It's some kind of knee jerk reaction to the longsuffering period.

So instead of saying there are good match up advantages for Michigan, you say they can't lose. LOL. Any one of these teams can obviously beat Michigan; you don't get a bye because you have an advantage. They don't beat Iowa 100 times out of 100, they don't beat Cincy 100 times out of 100, they don't beat NDame 100 times out of 100, they don't beat Bama 100 times out of 100. Etc. Nor do they beat most of those teams 75 out of 100. Hell, they don't beat Mich St. 100 times out of 100 when they are up 2 and have the ball with 10 seconds left, or up 30-14 with a little over a quarter to go. This isn't dissing Michigan, it's just being a little more realistic about competition. Michigan is about 4/1 favorite in the game, not a million-to-one because they have a great pass rush.

You develop a history. It's hard to live it down. It certainly can be done, and it was great watching it happen in '97. The winningest team ever with 40 some conference titles has had one season in the last 70 realize the title. It's kind of weird. How many teams have multiple titles since then? Gonna guess 10, first guess was 15. Michigan just had their biggest orgasm in 100 years. And the ensuing games are byes? Ohhhhkay.

Really couldn't find a better matchup stylistically for Michigan than Iowa. Should be an absolute dumptruck.

We can say Michigan wants Bama in the first round as long as we're pretending they were the 97 champions.

Stetson Bennett is pretty mobile actually

Oh c,mon, I’s clearly kidding with the question, lol. Still it is silly to think the well-positioned shiny helmet guys don’t get in put in at the first defensible opportunity (and being the last major 1-loss team would be it). Sure, they’ll be cannon fodder for, assumably, UGA but why on earth would you mind that?

agreed that which teams would be favored should have nothing to do with it, only mentioned that bc people use the "best 4 teams" argument for Bama to get in but not for Oh St - even though they are both pretty obviously top 4 teams.

97 Huskers had one of Sagarin's all time best ratings. Michigan didn't even deserve that half title.

Remember though wasn't it kind of classic that they split that title? Both teams seemed to do what was required to win it, and lo and behold, there was the polls splitting it between them. It seemed fair to me. The fact than Nebraska is favored over them isn't so germane, is it?

Yah, but who wouldn't have wanted to see them settle it on the field, could've been a classic.

Although I think Nebraska would've worked them. Michigan had the #1 D, but more their secondary w/Woodson, rush D was only like 10th. Their O was garbage. They only put up 30+ 3x and season high was like 38, and Nebraska also had a great D, so they would've had trouble scoring.

Nebraska O was insanely good. Michigan only faced 1 top 10 rush offense all year, and that was #8 Iowa, who put up a ton of points on them. To put it in perspective, Iowa was the 8th best rush offense at like 250 yds per, and Nebraska was #1 at almost 400 per. They would've run wild. Not a great matchup for Michigan, they got lucky.

Also kinda lame that 2 teams get to claim a natty from 1 year when everyone else since that season has had to earn it via BCS/playoff.

I was just thinking that of all the knocks against Bennett, mobility is pretty far down the list, but lolbigtenfans, as usual.

is this your first ILP experience? if so, it's a shame you weren't around to fade every single one of his demonstrative bet predictions from a year or so ago.

Still I thought the system of the day worked in that instance. Just think if it hadn't awarded half to Michigan, the winningest program of them all with a direct path to the Rose Bowl all those year would have zero titles in over 70 years. I liked the way it was split that year, and again, it's not really about who would be favored in a match up, or who was better, under the system of the time.

Of course the game I remember in 1997 is ND lost at Michigan by 7; a smaller MOV than Boob Davies lost @Purdue and vs Sparty en route to his 7-6 debut as ND HC.

say, do we still need an emergency hire?

The committee was clearly already giving Oregon a mulligan (somewhat deserved) for that fluky Stanford loss. And the Utah carpetbombing would definitely be disqualifying except for the specific fact that they get to "undo" it somewhat if they beat them in the title game.

It'll be Baylor over Oregon though, don't know why I'm overthinking it. Their two losses are to OK State (top-10, which will be avenged in this scenario) and by 2 on the road to TCU, which is exactly the sort of loss that the committee is very forgiving of.

They'll have beaten Oklahoma and Ok State, and it seems like everybody is forgetting that they also beat #12 BYU? That will be 3 top-12 teams with one loss to a top-10 team and narrow road loss to a decent team. Losses are basically the same as 2-loss Bama, but 3 impressive wins to Bama's 1, and on top of that a conference title and avoiding excluding another conf champ.

Of course Baylor is about as un-sexy as it gets, so i doubt they'd actually get in over Bama

Yep.

You better hope UGA takes care of business against Bama.

You'd go from facing Ok State or Cincy followed by an 80% chance of playing UGA to a 100% chance of playing UGA then a good chance at playing Bama.

If Bama upsets UGA it will go 1 Bama then 2/3 Michigan and UGA and then 4 Ok St / Cincy / ND

Now I'm starting to wonder how live Baylor might actually be somewhat live

I assume this week will be:
1 UGA
2 Michigan
3 Bama
4 Cincy
5 ND
6 Ok State
7 OSU
8 Baylor
9 Ole Miss
10 Oregon

It's helpful that the committee already had Baylor over Ole Miss. Only interesting questions are whether Bama or Cincy is 3-4 and whether Ok State jumps ND yet for 5-6. I think Ok State should jump ND, but I wouldn't bet on it yet.

I don't think OSU will drop below Baylor. It doesn't really matter bc Baylor would obviously leap them with a win, but mentally it's easier to leap 2 spots than 3 or 4 in the final rankings. That's why it would also be helpful if Bama was already at 4 and Ok State was already ahead of ND.

If Bama/Michigan or Bama/Cincy or Michigan/Cincy lose and Baylor wins, Byalor obviously jumps OSU and Ok State. I assume ND almost always slides in there ahead of them, and that Baylor is obviously ahead of Michigan and Cincy, so it would come down to them and 2 loss Bama for the last spot.

Everything points to it being Baylor (not wanting UGA/Bama as the 1-4, champion vs non champion, better resume vs worse resume) other than the fact that it's BAYLOR and it's ALABAMA. If it was Texas, it'd be a no brainer.

I think if Bama loses by a decent margin, it's Baylor for sure, but unsure of what happens in a close loss

Baylor's ~34% to beat OKST, then there is a ~27% chance that 2 of 3 Mich/Cincy/Bama lose, so that's a ~9% chance times whatever odds they get picked over bama that they sneak in there.

Of course, they'd then be like 17 point dogs to UGA in the first round (yikes) so their actual odds of titling are still like 1/300 or whatever, but not zero!

Also, nobody is really paying attention to it, but we were also so close this year to having BYU be right there too.

They finished 10-2 with 6 P5 wins as well as win over potential MWC champ Utah State. The loss to Boise was a fluke, a game they dominated statistically but lost b/c they lost the TO battle 4-0.

If they win there, they're 11-1 with the only loss coming to a top-10 team. Where would they rank, 7th? Their resume would basically be identical to Notre Dame's - one loss to a top-10 team, one victory over a ranked team (ND now has zero I think) and a respectable grind of mediums.

Let's not forget that they were also 11-1 last year, so like Cincy they would have two years of momentum built up to crack through. Cincy will probably finish with 1 win against a top-50 Sagarin team this year (houston is 47 and SMU is 51) while BYU would've had 5: asu 34, utah 14, wazzu 44, uva 50, boise 31

Also, as long as we're playing this game, SDSU finished 11-1 with wins over utah (14), air force (48), nevada (45), boise (31) and would've been 12-0 if they won the flip vs fresno (46). and another win over a 'p5' program (arizona) to boot.

They're a flip away from being 12-0 and having a better resume than cincy. Nevada beat Cal, Fresno beat UCLA and took Oregon to the brink, SDSU beat Arizona and Utah, Utah State beat Wazzu... top half of the MWC was at least as good as the top half of the Pac-12 this year.

Also, Nebraska was a few single-digit losses away from 12-0.

imagine the championship games go all chalk this weekend


1 UGA* vs [[8 Ohio State vs 9 Utah]]
2 Michigan* vs [[7 Ole Miss vs 10 Michigan State]]
3 Ok state* vs [[6 ND vs 11 BYU]]
4 Cincy* vs [[5 Bama vs 12 Pitt*]]

Would have to futz with the seedings a bit to avoid cincy/nd or ohio state/michigan rematches (could also swap sparty and BYU to avoid a sparty/mich rematch, but ND vs BYU would be so fun)