windiana should be a scary opponent for any team

Pitt / SMU being on the ACC network is so hilarious

Tennessee Kentucky clock guy ref crew stuff is sorta terrible.

I hope some fans show up to the Iron Bowl in Vandy jerseys this year

Maybe they made the schedule's in the preseason?

man, what a day for BYU and SMU if all this holds

South Carolina is pretty tough

How did these guys barely beat ODU

punting here is so, so, so bad

lol Clemson kicking the XP to go down 12 with 6 minutes left

12 or 13 doesn't matter, 2 TDs wins

12 or 11 is a huge diff, can tie with a TD and FG and 2p

Expected nothing less from DABOAH

A&M had better change qbs.

USC loses another close game

USC is the new Nebraska

rugby in Rocky Top

Boise has to be in play for a bye with all these upsets. If BYU loses a game how is the Big 12 going to be ranked ahead of Boise State? They're already going to climb at least a couple spots after today's results. And personally I think Boise would beat any Big 12 team.

Guess the oddsmakers knew something when they made SMU -7.

BTW, this game has a chance to be a CFB scorigami if SMU gets another TD. 55-11 has never happened.

1 Oregon
2 Georgia
3 Ohio State
4 Miami
5 Indiana

6 Tennessee
7 Texas
8 Alabama
9 Penn State
10 BYU

11 SMU
12 Notre Dame
13 Iowa State
14 Texas A&M
15 LSU

16 Boise State
17 Kansas State
18 Ole Miss
19 Arizona State
20 Vanderbilt

21 Clemson
22 Colorado
23 Pittsburgh
24 Washington State
25 Missouri

26 Iowa
27 Army
28 South Carolina
29 Louisville
30 Minnesota

12-1 BYU would have 3 top-25 wins and Boise would have zero

BYU would have TEN top-70 wins (almost certainly the most in the country), Boise would have THREE

Boise is good. They would've been a small dog to ISU and KSU and a small favorite over BYU prior to this week, and ISU and KSU both got upset.

But their resume isn't even close

BYU's win over an ACC champ SMU would lead to chaos. Not-SEC&BUG would have to have a playoff just to qualify to play against the Big 2.

ok, have a lot more clarity on b1g multiway ties now

between OSU Oregon PSU and Indiana

If there is a 4 way 1-loss tie
ohio state goes, bc they will have by far the best opponent record
either oregon drops (if they lose to wash, psu and iu will have beaten) or isu drops (worst opponent record)
psu is in either way

if oregon wins out and there is a 3 way 1-loss tie
osu goes bc they beat both iu/psu (assuming osu > iu)

if oregon wins out and iu beats osu but loses to mich:
osu is out w 2 losses
iu > psu bc of osu win


if oregon loses 1, psu loses again, so 3 way osu-oregon-iu tie
psu out with -2
osu in
oregon goes if the loss was to wisconsin, iu goes if the loss was to mary or wash

so, ohio state almost always goes if they win out

A couple that I love and wanna make sure I'm not missing anything:

Indiana YES Playoff -200
LSU NO Playoff -190

Indiana has to be a lock at 11-1, right?
And LSU almost always misses at 9-3, right? Bc they're def a huge fav to drop a game out of Bama, @Fla, Vandy, OU

Playoff odds

Vegas / Me


B1G
Oregon 98% / 99%

Ohio State 97% / 99%

Penn State 75% / 83%
I don't really get how Vegas is so low here. I have PSU 59% to finish 11-1 and 35% to finish 10-2. @WV, @USC, @Wisconsin, and either @Minn or vs Washington are all solid wins, although none of them will end up ranked. Even if you think they're only 70% to go at 10-2, that's 83% overall.

Indiana 67% / 87%
Vegas continues to disrespect Indiana's playoff odds. If they go 11-1, they're in, and that happens 87% of the time according to Vegas' own odds! They are -14 against Michigan and +9.5 against Ohio State. We can see the numbers right there!



ACC
Miami 91% / 90%
Miami is 69% to win out, in which case theyre in regardless of the ACCCG. There's a 28% chance they lose a game, in which case they're probably still in. And if they lose a game, and then lose in the ACCG, there are certainly some worlds where they're the bubble team

Clemson 29% /
Clemson is only 40% to win out in the first place with three tough games left (@ VT, @ Pitt, v USCe). If they win out, they often get left out of the ACCCG, and I think they get left out a lot. They'd have 0-2 top-25 wins and both of their losses were beat downs. If they end up making the ACCCG, They're obviously in if they win, but I think almost definitely out if they lose

Pitt 4% / 1%
Pitt is only 1% to win out, and I doubt they are in at 10-2 bc of their terrible power rating



B12
B12 is tough because the conference championship itself is so in the air
Using best odds, I see:
BYU 31%
ISU 27%
Colorado 22%
K State 11%
Texas Tech 8%
ASU 4%
Cincy 2%

Which adds up to 106%, so there is some juice in there. It's too hard for me to figure out without a monte carlo since it very frequently involves a multi way tie with 2 losses for second.

So, if you take those odds as gospel, Texas Tech , ASU and Cincy have zero chance as an at-large.


K-State 11% / 11%?
KSU is 22% to win out, which would involve winning @ ISU. They almost always need Colorado to lose another game (79%) and then if they do, KSUalmost always makes the B12CG, where they are probably a favorite.

Colorado 29% / 23%
They're 21% to win out. But if they win out, they need ISU to lose (80%) to make the title game, where they're a flip to win.
Then, 21% of the time they win out, and 20% of the time ISU wins out too, and then they get left out of the title game but have some very slim at-large odds
Then sometimes they lose again but win a multi way tie and get in to the CG
So, I have them 1% extra of making it as an at-large above their conference title odds

ISU 28% / 29%
20% to win out, then 55% to win so that's 11%
20% to win out, then 45% to lose, maybe they make it 80% of the time, so 8%
29% to lose to not-KSU, make title idk, half the time? then win 55%, so 8%
12% to lose 1 to KSU, make title idk, 35% of the time? win 55%, so 2%

BYU 57% / 52%
19% to win out, they're in so that's 19%
42% to lose 1 game, 45% to win title, so 19%
42% to lose 1 game, 55% to lose, make it maybe 60% of the time so 12%
Maybe 2% chance that they lose 2 games, but make it to the title game anyway, then win it



SEC

UGA 94% / 96%

Texas 93% / 91%

Tennessee 67% / 83%
Tenn is 17% to go 11-1 and 66% to go 10-2 (almost all of which is losing to UGA). Can't see them getting left out, not sure why this line is so low

Bama 56% / 50%
They are 39% to win out. Their resume is pretty great, with wins over UGA, Mizzou by a million, @ wisconsin by a million, south carolina. The losses to Tenn and Vandy are close. They're 47% to finish with 1 loss, but 33% of that is to LSU which is tough because that gives them H2H. Losing to Auburn at home in the finale is also not great. But 11% of their 9-3 scenarios are losing @ Oklahoma which isn't horrible. I think 50% is roughly right.

Ole Miss 40% / 34%
I think they're in at 10-2 and out at 9-3

LSU 31% / 25%
LSU and Bama are very similar. Each have a marquee win (Ole Miss in LSU's case) and a couple other solid wins and a couple understandable losses. They are in at 10-2 and have outs at 9-3 for the winner of Saturday's matchup
18% to win out and they're obviously in, with the win over Ole Miss plus Bama.
11% 9-3 with a loss to UF, very often in I think (equivalent of Bama losing to OU) call it 4%
2% losing to Vandy might be OK... Vandy would probably be 7-5 call it 1%
5% Losing to OU also would have some outs, but losing the last game is really tough call it 2%

ATM 18% / 21%
I have them at 17% to win out, so 18% seems like a good deal. If they lose at Auburn then turn around and beat Texas, they'd be live as a 9-3 team with wins over Texas, LSU and Mizzou.


ND 67% / 52%
ND wins out they're in. I think they are usually out at 10-2

TUESDAY
Bowling Green -13.5
Central Michigan 14
some weekday MACTION. BGSU (3-1), Miami OH (3-1), Ohio (3-1) and WMU (4-0) are all contenders fighting proxy battles this week

Miami (OH) -11.5
Ball State 12.5


WEDNESDAY
Ohio -18.5
Kent 19.5

Northern Illinois -1.5
Western Michigan 2


THURSDAY
Florida Atlantic 7.5
East Carolina -7.5

Appalachian State 1.5
Coastal Carolina -1


FRIDAY
California -7
Wake Forest 7.5

Rice 9.5
Memphis -9.5

Iowa -6.5
UCLA 6.5
There are no playoff implications, but this is a good game for Friday night. UCLA was extremely underrated after playing pretty solidly against the nation's toughest schedule, and finally got it together in an upset at Nebraska. Iowa beat the hell out of Wisconsin last week. Okay actually there are some minor playoff implications, ISU could really use a 9-3 finish and top-25 ranking from their hated rivals.

New Mexico 3.5
San Diego State -3



SATURDAY
Navy -3.5
South Florida 3.5

Florida 21.5
Texas -21.5
Florida might've beaten UGA if Lagway didn't get hurt. Texas has a 3-game grind of mediums (v UF, @ ARk, v UK) before their season-ending showdown with ATM. Losing any one of those 3 would make for some epic stakes in that final game

Texas State -7
Louisiana-Monroe 7.5

West Virginia 4
Cincinnati -4
With only 2 conference losses, both of these teams are technically still alive, though it would require some tiebreak magic. Nicco Marchiol went off last week in place of Garrett Greene, not sure whether GG will be back this week or not.

Syracuse 2
Boston College -2
Syracuse is off to a 6-2 start in Adrian Autry's first season thanks to a 4-1 record in close games.

Miami -11
Georgia Tech 12.5
Miami's offense has been putting on a show, but their defense has given up 30+ in 4 of the last 5 games (lol FSU)

Minnesota -6
Rutgers 6.5

Purdue 38.5
Ohio State -37.5

Liberty -10.5
Middle Tenn. St 10.5

UConn -6
UAB 6.5

Marshall -13.5
Southern Miss 14

Army -6
North Texas 6
Notre dame's on deck...

San Jose State 3
Oregon State -2.5

Georgia -2.5
Mississippi 2.5
It's do or die for Ole Miss. Bubble teams everywhere will be rooting for the Dawgs

Georgia State 16.5
James Madison -16.5

Iowa State -3
Kansas 3.5
ISU is on thin ice now. Every game is probably must win for them

Clemson -6.5
Virginia Tech 6.5
If Clemson wins out they have a decent chance, but another loss kills them.

Duke 3.5
North Carolina State -3

Michigan 14
Indiana -14
I believe.

Temple 26.5
Tulane -25.5

Colorado -3.5
Texas Tech 3.5
Colorado has two losses but only 1 in the B12. If they win out, they've got a great shot to play in the CCG

Kennesaw State 4
UTEP -3.5

South Carolina -3.5
Vanderbilt 3.5
Two underdogs enter, only one will leave.

Jacksonville State -9.5
Louisiana Tech 10.5

Arkansas State 17
Louisiana-Lafayette -16.5

Western Kentucky -18
New Mexico State 18.5

Mississippi State 24
Tennessee -23.5

Oklahoma State 11.5
TCU -10.5

Central Florida 3
Arizona State -3
Both coming off of huge wins last week. ASU still in fringe contention for the B12 title. If it wasn't for Indiana, Dillingham would be getting a lot more love for COTY for what he's done at ASU

Maryland 25.5
Oregon -24

Alabama -2.5
LSU 3
PROBABLY a de-facto play-in game, although there's some chance the winner could still lose out, and the loser could still backdoor in. But, this is the quintessential 12-team playoff era game that was meaningless last year but is epic this year.

Florida State 25
Notre Dame -25

Oklahoma 2
Missouri -2
I think Mizzou is dead, but they're still technically only a 2-loss SEC team. Let's hope OU kills them off for good

Nevada 24.5
Boise State -24

Virginia 7.5
Pittsburgh -7.5
SMU (and Clemson) are rooting for Pitt now

Washington 13.5
Penn State -13.5
Washington finally broke through last week against doomswitched USC. I think Penn State is a lock at 10-2 but Vegas thinks it's dicier.

UNLV -13
Hawaii 13.5

Fresno State -10.5
Air Force 10.5

BYU -4.5
Utah 4.5
HOLY WAR hits different this year. Two teams going in opposite directions

Utah State 20.5
Washington State -20.5

You missed SMU. I'm interested in those #s too

Did you forget that the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS exist?

Do we get playoff rankings before the end of the year?