The first glimpse of what UNC will be post Drake Maye is not very promising.

ngl, I enjoy all the stupid mayo-related hijinks surrounding this bowl.

Duke’s is definitely paying extra

TAMU 3rd string qb goes down 10 seconds into the game. And here I thought it was a bad sign Okie lite sent the opening kickoff out of bounds.

We went 9-4 and ended the season with a blowout victory over THE GREATEST UNC TEAM OF ALL TIME so hey pretty good season imo

I feel like this USC kid is going to get laid tonight.

B1G moves to 4-0 in bowls

Next up, Rutgers

How long until the defense learns that 1st and 10 is better than 2nd and 1 when you desperately need the ball back

Take the points. Never fails…

It seemed the okst rb was about to go out of bounds with 50 seconds left, but the A&M defender judo hip threw back to keep the clock running.

Spread was 14 when I made this observation. OFC I didn't fire.

WVU GOAT

The Michigan Juggernaut:

2023: 13-0 reg season + CCgame ... Rose Bowl versus Bama
2022: 13-0 reg season + CCgame ... vaunted D gives up 50 to TCU and loses 51-45 in Fiesta Bowl as 7.5 pt. favorite
2021: 12-1 reg season + CCgame ... routed by UGA in Orange Bowl 34-11 as 7.5 pt. dog
2019: 9-3 reg season ... routed by Bama 35-16 in Citrus as 4 pt. dog
2018: 10-2 reg season ... routed by Florida 41-15 in Peach Bowl as 7.5 pt. favorite
2017: 8-4 reg season ... beaten by South Carolina 26-19 in Outback Bowl as 9 pt. favorite


That's a trend. The last 3 seasons they went 38-1 before the bowl game and 0-2 in the bowls. For the six seasons they went 65-10 before the bowls and 0-5 in the bowls. In the five bowls they under-performed the line by 93 points: 13.5, 15.5, 15, 33.5, and 16 points. So in each of the five bowls they under-performed by at least two touchdowns. It's safe to say they have been vastly overrated. Yet again and again and again the same thing.

Over the last three seasons, they were one big comeback by Mich. State from going 38-0 regular season and 0-2 dubious bowl performances. This record is Schembechler on steroids.

Yet of course they are really building, flipping the ownership in the Buckeye series ... no doubt a big step.

I'll pick it close. Lot's of field goals by both sides. That's not a vintage Bama team ... nothing particularly awesome about them. Third time a charm with the byes into the playoff: Wolverines 23-20.

Excited to watch true frosh QB Avery Johnson make his first ever start for Kansas State in the bowl game tonight. Dark horse for next year's Heisman. Kid is electric. Reminds me of Lamar Jackson. Maybe he can jump start his campaign for next season with a big game.

Big-12 with a great start to bowl season:

Texas Tech 34 Cal 14
GT 30 UCF 17
Kansas 49 UNLV 36
Oklahoma State 31 Texas A&M 23
WVU 30 UNC 10

a week ago I felt pretty good about SMU -10.

after watching the AAC get wrecked twice in the last 24 hours, not feeling real good now.

Poor SMU should be in NY6 but instead playing in an 11am game in rainy Boston

And just the weather might screw you

I'm on BC +400 and feel great about it right now

Both teams are missing a ton of players, SMU might be disappointed after just missing out on the G5 bid, the game is being played in a swimming pool, who knows what the f is going to happen, just huge reduction in priors

Castellanos is a good runner (ran for almost 1k yards this year) and I know they're missing some linemen but it feels like a game that could be slow and grindy with a bunch of random fumbles and turnovers, and +400 was a pretty incredible price I thought. I think it got as high as +460 right before kickoff.

I have a couple tweaks to my systems for bowls that historically have printed. Got put in a 15k hole early, but on a 40k upswing that started with coastal ml.

This bowl season has been pretty classic in that the first weekend of games looked a lot like they were supposed to, and the deeper in we get, the more chaotic they get (opt outs, coaches moving, transfers), and the weather has been a great tailwind to the chaos too (no pun intended)

Care to share? IIRC you’ve been a big ML underdog fan for bowl season.

That was the initial premise, but now I think I also map opt outs better than Vegas (i.e. I had Oklahoma State +150 or something bc the expected opt outs for ATM were gigantic, and that's what ended up happening and OK State was favored at kickoff), although it's too early to tell if I'm just getting lucky or there's something there.

Then, my friend's models are just really good at valuing each player, in particular defensive players, so a lot of bets close to game time once we know what the opt outs are. In particular the advanced stats on modeling "stars" sitting out which generate big line moves but their backups are actually just as good or better. It's particularly good at the totals, Vegas doesn't seem to adjust well for the second order effects of some of the opt outs (i.e. starting passing QB is out and star WR is out, and backup QB runs a lot more, so they're going to run a ton more than usual, which is good for under).

The "live betting momentum in very high uncertainty games" modifications are back above water after losing in a couple big spots early.

I don't put a ton of time into it since I can't afford to distract much from my day job, but it's fun to do on the side. Having one of my best years ever this year, which is nice since I lost a decent amount at the series this summer

That’s great stuff.

Do you do any mid-game bets? Have thought those would be highly volatile yet exploitable if your models are dialed in.

Yikes, FSU has 21 players opting out / transferring. Practically their entire starting offense is gone. They'll be starting 10 3-star players, a QB who is 10/25, a RB who has 21 carries and WRs who had 7 and 2 catches



Players missing:

QB Jordan Travis (649 snaps) is out for the year.
Backup QB Tate Rodemaker (141 snaps)

Starting RB Trey Benson (413 snaps)
RB Lawrance Toafili (361 snaps) isn't on depth chart following surgery.
RB Rodney Hill (109 snaps)
RB Cj Campbell (43 snaps)

Starting WR Johnny Wilson (459 snaps)
Starting WR Keon Coleman (672 snaps)
WR Winston Wright (29 snaps)

Starting TE Jaheim Bell (451 snaps)
TE Markeston Douglas (210 snaps)

OT Bless Harris (390 snaps)
OG Thomas Shrader (47 snaps)



Starting DE Jared Verse (586 snaps)
Starting DT Fabien Lovett (337 snaps)
DT Malcolm Ray (246 snaps)
DT Ayobami Tifase (20 snaps)
DL Joshua Farmer (427 snaps) has paused his transfer portal request and is listed on the bowl depth chart.

Starting LB DJ Lundy (403 snaps)

Starting S Akeem Dent (446 snaps)
Starting CB Renardo Green (651 snaps)
Starting CB Jarrion Jones (453 snaps)





Georgia:

Backup QB Brock Vandagriff (55 snaps)

Starting WR Rara Thomas (391 snaps) wasn't dressed for the SEC title game.
WR Jackson Meeks (85 snaps)
WR/PR Mekhi Mews (750+ all-purpose yards)
WR Zeed Haynes (21 snaps)

TE Brock Bowers (520 snaps)

OT Amarius Mims (297 snaps)
OL Austin Blaske (29 snaps)


EDGE CJ Madden (49 snaps)
EDGE Darris Smith (39 snaps)
DL Jonathan Jefferson (67 snaps)


Starting LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson (336 snaps; missed final four games)
OLB Marvin Jones Jr. (247 snaps)
LB Xavien Sorey Jr. (188 snaps)

CB AJ Harris (89 snaps)
CB Daniel Harris (46 snaps)
CB Julian Humphrey (168 snaps) hasn't played since Week 11.

18.5 point spread is incredible.

B1G just keeps on doing Big things