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NCAA Basketball Thread 2017-18 NCAA Basketball Thread 2017-18

01-08-2018 , 12:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wahoo3
Uva can't really say much until we start doing better in the tournament, true. Variance is a *****. I honestly think our Natty equity was super great the year we choked so badly in the e8 vs Syracuse. Our next games would've been vs unc and then Villanova, both of whom we beat in the regular season. But it is what it is and our style is a gimmick that doesn't work in March until it does.
just blowing off steam. UVa has a great program. maybe this is the year.
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01-08-2018 , 12:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBears
Can't believe WV is good enough to have legit dumbass haters.

Is this what it's like to be a fan of a good team
**** you for 2010

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01-08-2018 , 01:29 AM
Conference of mothafockin champions ya heard, least coast?

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01-08-2018 , 03:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBears
Can't believe WV is good enough to have legit dumbass haters.

Is this what it's like to be a fan of a good team
Meh, you're a smart guy Galen... I didn't watch the game but WVU has finished in the top 2 Nationally in turnover % the past 4 years. Thats an insane stat... WVU fouls a lot, like a lot. I have a hard time with WVU fans that cry foul over too many foul calls against them b/c I have watched a lot of WVU games in the past and they play more aggressive and commit more fouls than any power conference team that I have ever seen.
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01-08-2018 , 09:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by charder30
Meh, you're a smart guy Galen... I didn't watch the game but WVU has finished in the top 2 Nationally in turnover % the past 4 years. Thats an insane stat... WVU fouls a lot, like a lot. I have a hard time with WVU fans that cry foul over too many foul calls against them b/c I have watched a lot of WVU games in the past and they play more aggressive and commit more fouls than any power conference team that I have ever seen.
this post holds a lot of credence. this is coming from a man who has seen a ton of dook games b/c Maryland used to be in the ACC.
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01-08-2018 , 10:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckleslovakian
**** you for 2010





I was actually a big fan of that game in 2010.
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01-08-2018 , 11:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by charder30
Meh, you're a smart guy Galen... I didn't watch the game but WVU has finished in the top 2 Nationally in turnover % the past 4 years. Thats an insane stat... WVU fouls a lot, like a lot. I have a hard time with WVU fans that cry foul over too many foul calls against them b/c I have watched a lot of WVU games in the past and they play more aggressive and commit more fouls than any power conference team that I have ever seen.
Kenpom doesn't have a "fouls called per posession" stat, so I guess the closest proxy is FTA/FGA

Out of 351 d-1 teams, WVU ranks 332nd this year
Last year, 313th
The year before that, 351st (dead last)
The year before that, 351st (dead last again)

So, over the last four years it seems probable that in the entire 351-team division, WVU is the team with the single most fouls called on them.

Which makes sense - they have the most aggressive press and force the most turnovers.

Since they have the highest volume of fouls committed and fouls called, it seems pretty likely that among all teams in the NCAA they also lead in fouls committed that the refs fail to call. It also seems likely/obvious that they lead the NCAA in fouls called on them that are not actually fouls.

So the question is, is the accuracy rate of fouls called against them higher or lower than the average team?

One countervailing argument seems to be that "they literally foul so much that refs' elasticity of foul calling gets pushed to the extremes, and even though they call more fouls on WV than any other team in the country, they won't actually call a foul on every single play, so the ratio of fouls gotten away with to phantom fouls tips in WV's favor."

This seems somewhat plausible, but I'm skeptical. The thing you're essentially arguing is that a team with the single worst reputation for fouling actually gets a longer leash from refs.**

As a corollary, let's try to argue that NBA players with reputations for earning lots of technical fouls would be less likely to get a T than a player with a reputation for not earning lots of technical fouls. Obviously, if you've ever watched Boogie or Sheed, you know the opposite to be true.

Or, let's look at James Harden, who has a rep for drawing lots of fouls. If he goes to the bucket and draws contact vs some other guard who does the same thing, is he more or less likely to get a call? Obviously more.

Now, these obviously aren't perfect allegories (especially the T one, because the same caution against calling an absurd amount isn't there), but I think it's at least a reasonable counter argument.

Also, I think we can all easily agree that the thing I was joking about is true as well - if WV does get a longer leash, it's certainly not because of any of the reasons that Duke or UNC might get more calls than Gonzaga or Butler. The name on the jerseys isn't driving any eyeballs for the NCAA.

Mostly, I think that WV probably gets called for fouls at roughly the same rate as other teams, but because there are so many more missed calls in each direction than fans are used to, and because you obviously index higher to your own teams' missed calls than missed calls in your favor, watching WV games will give opposing fans the sense that they're being screwed more than normal, while giving WV fans probably have developed a higher baseline for missed calls.

Then, there's also the particular context of the fouls that are called, rather than the literal number. I've seen games where we absolutely mug teams and get away with murder, especially late in the game. This particular game felt like we ran bad on the calls, not because I have a view on the total number, but in particular because two of the four calls against Carter were pretty obviously bad calls (no opinion on whether there were missed calls against him as well), which hurt much more than normal bad calls, because he was so effective in shutting down Young.



**And, I'm not even convinced that if this phenomenon is true, it's a reasonable thing to complain about. It just seems like a part of the game that smart coaches will adapt to and dumb coaches will whine about. Like, if you think it's true that refs won't call a foul on a drive to the basket for a game winner, then obviously it's smarter to step back for a jump shot rather than drive to the bucket, get fouled and then complain when you miss and lose. You can complain about what should or should not be the case, but if you agree that something is the case, then you shouldn't complain about coaches altering their decisions based on referee bias
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01-08-2018 , 11:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
I was actually a big fan of that game in 2010.
You guys do run pretty hot in having other teams beat Kentucky for you
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01-08-2018 , 11:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBears
You guys do run pretty hot in having other teams beat Kentucky for you
yea, I am a big fan. I kinda enjoy the years where Duke is good, but Kentucky is the clear best team in the country and gets beat before we have to play them. Really adds something to the tournament.
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01-08-2018 , 05:17 PM
I hope that blog post was cathartic to write, because ain’t nobody reading that much
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01-09-2018 , 08:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dudd
I hope that blog post was cathartic to write, because ain’t nobody reading that much
Yeah I don't see how it takes that many words to come to the obvious conclusion that "Team that presses and commits a ton of fouls gets called for a lot of fouls"
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01-09-2018 , 08:29 PM
Ugh, Konate down with what looks like an ankle injury.

Hope it's not bad. Second most important player on the team after Carter, we just don't have any other bigs and his shot blocking is so important because our guards gamble so much
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01-09-2018 , 08:32 PM
Javon Carter wins the Greg Oden Memorial "Looks like he qualifies for AARP" Award
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01-09-2018 , 08:45 PM
Um ok he seems fine

Blocks a shot

off the backboard

by pinning it

with both hands
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01-09-2018 , 09:01 PM
Non zero chance Virginia holds Syracuse under 30.
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01-09-2018 , 09:24 PM
HE DID IT AGAIN
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01-09-2018 , 09:45 PM
Cuse making tough shots all over the place. No way they keep it up in the 2nd half.
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01-09-2018 , 09:48 PM
Virginia is one of those teams that fouls every play because they know refs won't call it every time.
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01-09-2018 , 10:01 PM
The last 5 minutes of game time have taken 35 minutes of real time, featured about 20 stoppages of play, about ten terrible calls including us getting possession on two consecutive jump balls, zero baskets, and I think three total free throws

Real ugly
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01-09-2018 , 10:12 PM
LOL at the refs in the UK game with under 4 secs left... bear hug the guy... nothing to see here folks. moving right along.

fkn joke.
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01-09-2018 , 10:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar
LOL at the refs in the UK game with under 4 secs left... bear hug the guy... nothing to see here folks. moving right along.

fkn joke.
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01-09-2018 , 10:54 PM
Purdue prettay good.
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01-09-2018 , 10:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tabbaker
Virginia is one of those teams that fouls every play because they know refs won't call it every time.
Lol. Va getting mugged all over the place with no calls. And then a foul on a 3 where we barely touch him. Then they have to review an obvious out on cuse. But it's cool.
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01-09-2018 , 11:00 PM
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery
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01-09-2018 , 11:38 PM
I'm shocked to report that this Auburn basketball team is legit salty.
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