Sorry in advance for wall of text
Here are my tourney projections as of today...obviously, a lot will change between now and 11 days from now, but we are starting to get a clearer picture of some things. Also, remember that there are 68 teams this year instead of 65. Here we go...
Conferences that only have a shot at one bid (14): America East, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt.
ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Down to four this week in the ACC, but Clemson, I think could get in with 2-3 more wins including their play in the conference tournament. Maryland and Boston College probably need at least that, too, to get consideration. Virginia Tech is looking safer after defeating Duke at home, but they need to win another game or two to feel totally secure. Somebody will likely finish strong and give this league a fifth bid...right now, though, only four are currently worthy.
Atlantic Ten (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Xavier and Temple are looking good for bids right now, but Richmond remains in only by the skin of their teeth. There are no longer other contenders for at-large bids in this conference, so it comes down to Richmond finishing strong. If they don't, the A-10 will become a two-bid league barring an upset in conference tournament play.
Atlantic Sun (1-2): Belmont
Hopefully, Belmont will win the conference tournament in a conference they've thoroughly dominated this year. If they don't, their chances of making it in as an at-large aren't great, but they're not dead, either. The team could get to nearly 30 wins without winning the conference tourney title, and that's pretty solid considering Big Dance expansion.
Big East (11): Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, Georgetown, Connecticut, Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
Talk about re-defining the term "power conference". The Big East is over the top loaded this year and almost a shoo-in for ten, or even eleven teams. Marquette has to be added to the field this week as they are finishing strong. I would be very surprised at this point if this conference gets anything short of eleven teams in. Marquette would have to collapse for that to happen. Everybody else should be safely in.
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State
Things have sort of worked themselves out in the Big 12 where now these five teams stand out as tournament worthy. Some projections have Colorado and Baylor still in the at-large mix as well, but I think those two teams are a ways off right now from consideration and would have to advance deep into the Big 12 tourney to get a serious look.
Big Ten (5): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State
The first three here are locks, obviously, but then it's kind of a mess. Michigan State is currently my last team in and they need to win two more games in my mind to realistically feel comfortable about themselves. Illinois also falls into that category. Both of those teams could split their final two games and then win a conference tourney game and that should be enough. Or, they could win their final two games. Anything less than that, though, and it's shaky. Michigan, Penn State, and Minnesota need to go deep into the Big 10 tourney at this point to get in, I believe.
Colonial (2-3): George Mason, Old Dominion
One of the premeir mid-major conferences, the expansion to 68 teams this year means the Colonial will get a deserving two teams in. Both of these teams are in solid shape right now. There's also a shot at a third bid via an upset in the conference tourney. I think these two are near locks right now, so that sort of upset won't change their spots in the field, but it might make other "bubble" teams uncomfortable.
Conference USA (1-2): UAB
I just can't keep reserving two bids for a league in which the teams are as fickle as this bunch. I do think UAB would have the best chance at an at-large should they fail to win the C-USA tourney, but beyond them, the other teams aren't impressing anyone much at the moment. UTEP, Memphis, and Southern Miss are the teams I'm referring to...we'll see if any of them can get hot this week and make a case.
Horizon (1-2): Cleveland State/Butler
Much like the Colonial, the Horizon has grown into what the MAC used to be...a top tier mid-major conference. However, Cleveland State's at-large case has been severely weakened of late and now they're a longshot to gain consideration. Butler is in a little better standing, but has to advance to the Horizon conference tourney final to get a look. I think in the end, one bid for the Horizon is more likely, but there's still slim hopes for something beyond that.
Ivy (1-2): Princeton/Harvard
Another banner year for the Ivy with two very good teams vying for the conference title. Would the committee consider two teams from this conference? It's unlikely, but with the bubble being so soft right now, don't rule it out just yet.
Missouri Valley (1-2): Missouri State
Wichita State's at-large chances are dead now, and so it's Missouri State that has the only shot at an at-large bid. The Bears have been hosed plenty of times before, but I'm not sure they deserve to go this year even in an expanded field. Winning the regular season title won't hurt them, though, and if they get to the MVC tournament final and lose a heart-breaker, they'll be in the discussion.
Mountain West (3): Brigham Young, San Diego State, UNLV
With an RPI better than the ACC, the MWC is going to get three teams in, no questions asked. However, I've got Colorado State on the outside looking in this week. They need to win three more games to get that turned around and that may be a tall order. Stay tuned.
Pac-10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Again this week, a fairly clear cut conference. Washington State has lost all momentum, leaving the conference almost certainly at three bids. Washington needs to finish strong or they could get placed on the "bubble", though, so that's worth keeping an eye on.
SEC (6): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee
This is going to end up being a five-bid league, I think. In order to get six in (where I have it now), Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia all need to finish strong. One of those three won't be up to that task and therefore I do think one will lose their bid in the next twelve days. All three MUST win two more games minimum to get in.
Summit (1-2): Oakland
Would the committee actually put a team in with double-digit losses who resides in the Summit League? Very, very doubtful. Yet, this team has played well against the big boys this year. Here's hoping they get the auto invite from this league as they deserve it.
West Coast (1-2): St. Mary's/Gonzaga
See the Horizon league. St. Mary's represents Cleveland State. Gonzaga represents Butler. This is likely going to be a one-bid league, but if either teams loses in a close conference tourney final, they will draw consideration.
WAC (1-2): Utah State
That Bracket Buster win on the road at St. Mary's should have sealed the deal for Utah State. I think they're in no matter what now...other bubble teams just have to hope that they win their conference tourney to keep the WAC at one bid only. Not everyone has them as secure as I do, but they'd be hard-pressed to leave a team inside the top 20 in RPI out in a 68-team field. Won't happen.
Top Sixteen Seeds (as of today):
#1- Ohio State, Kansas, Brigham Young, Pittsburgh
#2- Duke, Purdue, Notre Dame, Texas
#3- San Diego State, Syracuse, Wisconsin, North Carolina
#4- Florida, Louisville, Georgetown, Arizona
Thoughts??
