Well well well, we've got ourselves a series

30-9 after this

so predictable

Ec_outlaw is like the Suns version of me wrt getting tilted by reffing, it’s awesome.

Lol, I've had the same thought.

Drink!

Drink!

OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG

Cam!!!!!

Cam ****ing Johnson.

That's a flagrant for the lean back!

If you gave the teams the EV of every shot taken, pretty sure Bucks up 2-1

An NBA Playoff Series does not BEGIN until a team loses a game at HOME!

Mild Take: A 7 game series by virtue of sample size is essentially a crapshoot EV shooting wise.

Monty WILliams

I have no idea what supposedly happened there. Kept waiting for an elbow or something

Knee injury I think

Edit: Or not?

MOML

Suns offense will be fine my only real concern for them on that part is the past 2 games Booker hasnt gotten to the rim at all and hasnt really done alot as a playmaker. Just jumper after jumper difference was 2nd half of game 2 he made everything.

Biggest issue for the Suns is defense and Im not really talking about Giannis going off thatll happen especially when Ayton isnt out there(lol Monty fouled him out of the game himself basically). Rotations and help defense was terrible tonight, and they just got outworked in terms of hustling for rebounds, boxing out loose balls and making extra efforts on defense. But the help defense stuff was the biggest stuff just not knowing what they were doing, this is 2 bad CP3 defensive games in a row now which shows how top to bottom the issue is.

The hype Booker's gotten has obviously been greater, but the stats don't lie imo:

(all regular season)

Raw advanced stats

Jamal Murray - +1.15Lebron, +1.7 BPM, .592TS, .129WS/48, +7.6Netrtg, +5.3 Netrtgswing
Devin Booker - +1.19Lebron, -.1 BPM, .587TS, .104WS/48, +7.2Netrtg, +3.1 Netrtgswing

Rankings

Jamal Murray - RPM 19th, RAPTOR 30th, EPM 27th
Devin Booker - RPM 45th, RAPTOR 45th, EPM 107th

And Jamal has been far better in the playoffs. His run as a 21 year old two years ago is arguably better than what Devin has done these playoffs at 24, and last year's Jamal was light years better than this years Book. Also bear in mind these stats included an abysmal start where Murray was so banged up that he didn't pick up a basketball until training camp, per his words ofc.

Giannis over 50% FG shooting in 10 straight playoff games while averaging over 30. (Actually over 60% cumulative.)

Nobody. (??) That's considerably better than Alcindor for the Bucks 50 years ago. Throwing in 12 boards and 4.5 assists. Dude may be close to third team All-History-NBA or may already be there??

If Giannis keeps performing like he did tonight and the Bucks lose in 7 I think it's possible he gets FMVP.

Oh I dont agree at all with the being far better in the playoffs part. Jamal is at 24/6 on 59% TS in the playoffs for his career Booker is at 26/5 on 56% TS and I think has had a harder role, doesnt have Jokic and for 8 of his playoff games this yr basically had no CP3/ or one armed CP3 who was often a net negative vs LA.

The Booker impact metric thing has been an ongoing source of debate amongst dorkapoolza on NBA twitter it basically comes down to the fact impact metrics continue to be very very low on his defense. Booker had a sizeable lead on O-LEBRON the past 2 yrs over Murray its entirely the D-LEBRON that brings him down. O-EPM was a wash this yr previous 2 yrs Booker had the edge. So it basically just comes down to if you think Booker is THAT level of bad on defense. Ive watched over half of Bookers games the past 2 yrs probably, I think Suns fans overrate his defensive improvement he's still a poor defender but when I see things like EPM having Murray as a 55th-75th percentile defender vs Booker being 15-25th percentile I dont buy there's that kind of gap between them at all. Think they are largely a wash on defense, Murray has improved he might be a bit better now but I dont buy that Murray is providing any kind of positive value on defense and Mike Malone doesnt act like he does either by how he uses him.

So it's as it always is with defense its a very grey area, if someone goes by the impact metrics and says "they say Booker always sucks every yr so he must suck" I dont really blame them per se. But I dont buy there is any kind of meaningful difference in the defensive value Murray vs Booker provide. And I think Booker is a better offensive player than Murray. More advanced scorer who takes on a greater burden of responsibility, makes more advanced reads as a passer. You can [see how good the Suns offense was last yr when Booker was on the court relative to other players](https://go.nba.com/uqsa) and that really was not a high level supporting cast at all in 2020, I dont buy if you put Murray in that type of situation he is going to be able to lead that kind of offense for you.

Gonna be tough. Even that LeBron guy didn't get it in 15

Citing scoring stats for playoff performance seems weird since it's such a small part of the game, why not at least go with the advanced numbers?

Murray -

2019 (21) - +2.8 BPM - .120 WS/48 - .534 TS - 19.4 PER
2020 (22) - +5.9 BPM - .174 WS/48 - .626 TS - 23.7 PER

Booker (24) -

2021 (24) - +0.0 BPM - .077 WS/48 - .558 TS - 15.9 PER

The impact numbers are even more stark (+12.9 netrating swing vs. +7.3). Sure we can argue that Jamal as a lead ballhandler with Jokic around him and much less shooting is an easier job than Devin as a secondary ball-handler with a GOAT PG and shooting galore, but I don't think that's a good argument as they both have an equally less-demanding job than a typical #2 would. They both have nearly identical percentages of assisted buckets (35%) and have similar shot profiles.

Jamal's highs in the playoffs have been higher and there are fewer lows.

Gamescores below 6, or "dud" games

Booker 3/19 games (16%)
Murray 1/33 (3%)

above 20 ("star" games)

Booker 6/19 (32%)
Murray 14/33 (42%)

Above 30 (superstar)

Booker 2/19 (11%)
Murray 4/33 (12%)

Above 35 (BEAST MODE)

Booker 1/19 (5%)
Murray 3/33 (9%)

unless he averages a TrIpLe DoUbLe (so like 13 assists rest of the way) it'll go to cp3

Because these metrics arent any good, these are all just box score aggregators and outdated at best. Using both PER/BPM in particular makes no sense. GameScore is largely just PER without adjusting for minutes or pace same issue. Dealing with bad metrics with small sample sizes(which are what playoff samples) adds to the issues. LEBRON has playoff data from 2018-20, when they update it for this year with Booker we can see where he lands and compare from there. Murray is at +1.52 in their playoff LEBRON sample size. He ironically suffers from the thing Booker does in their reg season LEBRON, great offensive data but his horrible D-LEBRON is bringing him down a good bit.

Ive seen Snarr tweet out playoff EPM once or twice before, maybe he'll give more extensive data on it at some point. Im not the biggest RAPTOR guy but it's better than PER/BPM we can look at it as a start.

This year Booker: +5.1 total RAPTOR. Murray 2020 8.5 RAPTOR, Murray 2019 RAPTOR 1.9. Think his weighted average is a little ahead of Booker but its rather close.

The problem with analytics is that most analytics people are idiots.