Simmons & Milton for an open market FA contract Lonzo and a significantly overpaid Steven Adams? This has gone way too far. Recency bias is alive and well even in poker forums.

I like this post

I got the Hawks +3500 before game 7 to 'ship.

Now +1200.

Better to just bet each series and roll over the money.

Hawks were +245 to win game 7. Betting that and rolling it over on them at +1200 returns +4385.

Even better:

+245
+370 (Price vs. Bucks)
+250 (Avg. Price vs. Suns/Clippers)

= +5500

It would be awesome to have something similar to matchbook's futures bets using blockchain so all the $ that is matched is put in defi lending so your money isn't just sitting for 6 months at a time gaining zero return.

Feels like there is room for lots of innovation in sports betting. Futures bets are so -EV as of now. Too much vig when the book directly takes your action and too much time where your money is locked up.

BREAKING

I did bet them game 7 on the ml.

I don't usually bet them either. +3500 seemed silly for a nibble.

Do not want Simmons in Charlotte, even if it means giving up a broken Hayward.

A healthy Hayward would be a good fit in Philadelphia.

Of course, attaching "healthy" to "Hayward" is oxymoronic on its face.

I think the way this year's playoffs are shaping up bodes well for the Clippers retaining Kawhi and Paul George long term and that may be the best core in the league over the next 5 years. So I think I'd have the Clippers much higher. Also, Curry is 33 years old now and will be 34 by next year's playoffs, Draymond has somewhat regressed and we should expect similar from Klay. I don't see how they have much equity, especially for the next 5 years. Likewise, Lebron will be 37 and half by next year's Finals. In fact, I'd take the Celtics, Hawks and the Mavericks over 7, 8 and 10 on your list. I think the Sixers are better than that group as well.

So maybe something like

Tier 1:
1. Clippers
2. Nets
3. Bucks
4. Nuggets

Tier 2:
5. Suns
6. Sixers
7. Celtics
8. Mavericks
9. Lakers
10. Hawks

Honorable Mentions: Heat, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Warriors, Jazz, Blazers

I haven't put a lot of thought into this and I don't remember everyone's contract/cap situation so YMMV.

And I will beat him this time.

Perhaps you should spend your remaining time dedicating your life to higher existence activities in preparation for arrival at Saint Peter's Gate.

Afa ring expectation, I think you have to put PHX and MIL at the top simply because they both probably have 40% equity this year and will still be good next.

I was excluding this season for my ranking - otherwise you're right that those two have to be at the top. I don't think any team's ring equity over the next 5 years is higher than ~1, so including equity from the current season where we're down to just 4 teams is a bit unfair.

Perhaps you should report spam (like I did) rather than quoting it, thus ensuring it remains even though the original post has been deleted by Mods

This is basically Lonzo for Simmons

People wouldn't take Lonzo over Simmons right now? I don't even think that is close given Simmons limitations.

Seems weird that the Pels aren't snap signing Lonzo then? I'm unsure if every GM snap takes Lonzo over Ben. Even as bad as Ben has been this year in the playoffs he had an 18 PER and a 4.3 BPM. Lonzo has never made the playoffs and can even sniff those numbers. He's improving and I get there is a lot to like and also hate when it comes to Ben, but this isn't the weirdest take to saying Ben is more valuable than Lonzo. But Lonzo at least will shoot, so there is that.

Simmons disappearing offensively against Boston in '18 and Toronto in '19 made sense, young player and those were very good defenses.

Banged up Hawks in '21? Nah that's brutal....Not saying he sucks but gimme Lonzo all day.

So Lonzo is a mystery box, he's never been in the playoffs. We will have to see in this offseason/next season.

I thought we agreed that Mempis has the highest ring equity for the next decade around the time dating was solved

Philly lead that game with 3-4 minutes to go - how close are we to the narrative that says nice win for Philly and mainly thanks to Simmons defense for holding Trae to 5/23?

Didn't Philly cut the lead to 1 with like 3 mins left? They lead by 4 after a Harris 3pt play but that was around the 6 minute mark I believe

I mean, I don't think we're that close to much Philly narrative changing history. They played awful, got exposed and lost to an inferior team despite HCA and a glorified scrimmage for a 1st rd series.

it is just over with this team.....the best argument for Philly is that the west is the superior conference and brooklyn is old

Lonzo for Simmons works precisely because people have differing opinions of their value, both teams will win in public opinion, and because NOLA is cash-strapped and trying to keep Zion happy by at least making the play-in, which they will with Simmons. Philly gets the value of Adams as the backup C, and NOLA can offload his contract albeit taking on Simmons', who will also be a draw because of LSU. NOLA adds Milton (could do a slightly better version of this with a bonus sign and trade of Korkmaz if that's cap legal?). I've completely talked myself in to it.

Hawks are too low on people's next 5 year ring equity imo. Hunter is really good, and the same team minus LouWill and Solomon Hill will be back if they match on Collins. Reddish hated Lloyd Pierce and may can turn in to not one of the worst players in the league under McMillan. They can use the MLE on a backup PG (TJ McConnell?) and maybe LouWill signs vet's min to stay close to home (Magic City and/or Gwinnett). Okongwu has best backup C in the league potential and may surpass Capela once he adds strength. They have the 20th pick in a stacked draft for role players (Cam Thomas as another potential stud wing plz). Trae will also be a pull for some stars if Hawks look to change it up because he is fun to play with because of his willingness to distribute. Trae media hype is going to be pretty nuts going in to and through early next season.

I would put them around even with the Sixers as the 3rd best chance in the East, maybe slightly above.

One thing about Atlanta's ring equity, and we won't know until next year, is that the new rule changes will likely make it tougher for him to score reliably.

I think Curry's game should age even better - and I think he's closer to his peak athletically than Chris Paul was at the same age - but that still doesn't bode well for him being a top-5 player for the next 3 years, his age 33-35 seasons. Chris Paul was a lot better in his prime than he has been the past 3 seasons.

Chris Paul BPM age 27-32: 8.2
Chris Paul BPM age 33-35: 4.3

Steph Curry BPM age 27-32: 8.3

That's fair, but the championship core was assembled by 2013 - other than KD, I don't know if anyone else they've acquired since moved the needle and I suspect that a lot of the key people involved in putting that team together aren't around anymore.

Speaking of narratives, does anyone else find it suspicious that Ben Simmons, the 2nd best player on his team, gets this much blame in the media for the team losing a close series? The exact same thing happened to Paul George last year. And neither player played that terribly in the series on the whole, though both had memeable moments. Maybe it's a pure coincidence but it almost feels like Doc has friends in the media that are trying to push a specific narrative.