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Old 09-24-2020, 03:57 AM   #15676
VincentVega
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

Ya know, maybe mike d should realize that his style isnt conducive to winning a ship perhaps? (Maybe it is but hes had A+ talent for years that fit "his system" and never made a finals). So, they something slightly different in the East and see if he can figure it out one last time, cause this would be it for his career I'd imagine. Embiid is a bit of a ***** but no way do you move him. Simmons needs to go. Get paul in a 3 way trade while accumulating assets. Him and Joel could be great, and I cant stand paul.

Yes I know his contract is a problem
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Old 09-24-2020, 04:05 AM   #15677
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

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Ya know, maybe mike d should realize that his style isnt conducive to winning a ship perhaps? (Maybe it is but hes had A+ talent for years that fit "his system" and never made a finals). So, they something slightly different in the East and see if he can figure it out one last time, cause this would be it for his career I'd imagine. Embiid is a bit of a ***** but no way do you move him. Simmons needs to go. Get paul in a 3 way trade while accumulating assets. Him and Joel could be great, and I cant stand paul.

Yes I know his contract is a problem

You think you could dump Horford along w Simmons?

Cuz that could be swell.

D’Antoni reworking his system could be like Rocky in Rocky 2 learning to fight right handed, which if I remember correctly... shocked the world!
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Old 09-24-2020, 04:12 AM   #15678
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

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Danny Ainge has a perfect draft record. Just ask him. I love when these stories come out. If you thought he was so great, how about you trade up to take him.
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Old 09-24-2020, 04:15 AM   #15679
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

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You think you could dump Horford along w Simmons?

Cuz that could be swell.

D’Antoni reworking his system could be like Rocky in Rocky 2 learning to fight right handed, which if I remember correctly... shocked the world!
Oh god that albatross of Horfords contract, yea...plus tobias which I am higher on that most here but hes just a 2and unit leader and 3rd scorer at best in playoff time.

Horford has to be moved you're right.
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Old 09-24-2020, 04:18 AM   #15680
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

Herro has been fantastic but as an IU fan growing up I'm obligated to despising any UK player, except murray who just balls and plays for the nuggets. But I'd like to see him play on the road in playoff games of this magnitude and see if itd make a difference . Jamal mashburn was the **** too
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Old 09-24-2020, 04:32 AM   #15681
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

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Old 09-24-2020, 11:28 AM   #15682
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

Dang hero, too good. Today I got nugs +6
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Old 09-24-2020, 11:29 AM   #15683
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

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Herro has been fantastic but as an IU fan growing up I'm obligated to despising any UK player, except murray who just balls and plays for the nuggets. But I'd like to see him play on the road in playoff games of this magnitude and see if itd make a difference . Jamal mashburn was the **** too
Traditions are meant to be broken, Love all and all love
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Old 09-24-2020, 11:56 AM   #15684
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

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How much they getting you for a subscription?

(Yes, I realize I'm perfectly capable of looking this up)
I'm paying $12 monthly.
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Old 09-24-2020, 12:13 PM   #15685
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

i signed up. they delivered a lot of value for me over the years.
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Old 09-24-2020, 12:36 PM   #15686
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

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Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
Ya know, maybe mike d should realize that his style isnt conducive to winning a ship perhaps? (Maybe it is but hes had A+ talent for years that fit "his system" and never made a finals). So, they something slightly different in the East and see if he can figure it out one last time, cause this would be it for his career I'd imagine. Embiid is a bit of a ***** but no way do you move him. Simmons needs to go. Get paul in a 3 way trade while accumulating assets. Him and Joel could be great, and I cant stand paul.
The 76ers were a 6th seed that got swept in the first round in the East - the 4-year run the Rockets had with D'Antoni would be a big step-up from where they are. This isn't a ready-made championship-caliber team where anything short of a title is a failure. If Kevin Durant comes back and plays well, the 76ers are probably roughly the 6th best team in the East.

Also while D'Antoni's teams have historically underperformed in the playoffs relative to their regular season success, I don't think they have underperformed relative to their talent level - they just have done way better in the regular season relative to the talent level. In the past 4 playoff runs, they've only lost to clearly better teams.
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Old 09-24-2020, 12:56 PM   #15687
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

Current vig-free pricing has the Lakers as a 75/25 favorite over both the Heat and the Celtics, which doesn't make much sense.

Vegas already thinks the Celtics are better than the heat (-2.5, -3.5 last 2 games, -3 for game 5), and the only way that the Lakers face the Celtics is if the C's win 3 in a row which presumably increases their rating even more.

So you'd think that the Heat should be a bigger dog than the C's vs. the Lakers, but I guess it's probably still within the cone of vig

There's also a small arb series arb if anybody is in NJ, C's are +410 for the series on Fanduel and Heat are -400 on BOL
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Old 09-24-2020, 01:07 PM   #15688
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

75/25 favorite translates into about 62% to win any given game which is ~ -3.5

Idk, I feel like people are somehow still sleeping on the Heat. They're 11-2 so far in the playoffs, and they match up pretty well with the Lakers.

It's strength vs strength, with Lebron/Davis vs Jimmy/Bam, and the Lakers obviously have the edge there but the heat have a ton of bodies to throw at them - They can put Crowder, Iggy, DJJ and Jimmy on Lebron, and throw Bam and Olynyk at AD. They've certainly got the bodies.

And Goran/Herro/Robinson/Crowder is a way better fitting supporting cast than KCP/Rondo/Caruso/Kooz/Danny Green/Dwight & Javale
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Old 09-24-2020, 01:16 PM   #15689
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

Interesting, so is this how the betting lines would order the remaining teams in terms of strength?

Lakers > Celtics > Heat > Nuggets

Not having looked at the numbers closely, I would've thought:

Lakers > Nuggets > Heat > Celtics
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Old 09-24-2020, 01:22 PM   #15690
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

Lakers > Heat >> Nuggets > Celtics just because of position in the series would be my guess.

BTW My friend managed to get a parlay in Nugs ML G3 and Den +1.5 for the series at +3100, kicking myself for not getting in as well. I think it was on BetGM a couple hours before game 3.
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Old 09-24-2020, 01:27 PM   #15691
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

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Lakers > Heat >> Nuggets > Celtics just because of position in the series would be my guess.
I don't mean the chances of winning the title - I'm talking about how good I think each team is right now, vs what the betting lines (based on what GoldenBears posted above) think how good each team is. The Heat are far more likely to win the title than the Celtics but the betting lines have been consistent in saying that the Celtics are the better team.
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Old 09-24-2020, 01:31 PM   #15692
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

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Interesting, so is this how the betting lines would order the remaining teams in terms of strength?

Lakers > Celtics > Heat > Nuggets

Not having looked at the numbers closely, I would've thought:

Lakers > Nuggets > Heat > Celtics
It's a little goofy when you can't strip out all the juice b/c it's usually not evenly applied, also there is a difference between the power rankings *NOW* and the power rankings *conditional on the teams facing each other*

i.e. currently the Heat > Nuggets, but the only way they actually play is if the Nuggets come back to beat the Lakers, in which case their power rating would be higher than it is now.

The best odds for the nuggets are +1700 which actually imply they'd be a 59% favorite if they make the finals, but that's almost certainly because big lines like that tend to be heavily juiced.

Much more telling is the fact that the Lakers are -6 over the Nuggets, a 92% favorite to make the Finals, and the heat/celtics have 25% equity against the WC opponent which is almost certainly the Lakers which implies a line of -3.5 which is large enough to say that it's almost impossible that they are currently worse than the Nuggets.


Now, in the real world you'd account for variance (skewing to the upside or downside, i.e. in my opinion the Lakers are the thinnest team left) and actual matchups (which make much less of a difference than you'd think), but it's pretty clear that Vegas is currently rating Lakers > Celtics > Heat > Nuggets

Given that we know Lakers > Nuggets is 6-7 points and Celtics > Heat is about 3 points, then that means Lakers (1.5) Celtics (3) Heat (1.5) Nuggets is probably about what Vegas has, give or take a point on each one

which is why it's wild that a team they are supposedly 1.5 points better than is the same price as a team they're supposedly 4.5 points better than

Probably more like Lakers (2) Celtics (2) Heat (2) Nuggets or something like that, and the 2 vs 4 point delta is mostly made up by juice and there is maybe a little edge on betting Celtics to title and then delta hedging by betting on the Heat in the individual games
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Old 09-24-2020, 02:53 PM   #15693
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

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The Atlanta Hawks have agreed to hire Landry Fields as assistant general manager.

Fields was previously general manager of the Austin Spurs of the G League.

Field spent five seasons in the NBA.
My man Landry, you really love to see it
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Old 09-24-2020, 02:57 PM   #15694
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

I'd be very surprised if Lakers/Heat lines were -3.5 LAL

Feels like that would be around 5, about where Houston was for most of the games iirc
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Old 09-24-2020, 03:11 PM   #15695
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

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I'd be very surprised if Lakers/Heat lines were -3.5 LAL

Feels like that would be around 5, about where Houston was for most of the games iirc
You can short Miami on BM at -424 then

Including juice, you win if Miami's average win expectation is less than 37%

You could bet a ton on it then just delta hedge with Miami moneyline every game and squeeze out the difference
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Old 09-24-2020, 03:28 PM   #15696
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

I'll take the over on LBJ FT's tonight:

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Old 09-24-2020, 03:40 PM   #15697
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

Welp, gg Nugs.
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Old 09-24-2020, 04:16 PM   #15698
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

Tyler Herro is a star in this league
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Old 09-24-2020, 04:20 PM   #15699
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

I do sorta feel LeBron dominates tonight.
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Old 09-24-2020, 04:46 PM   #15700
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Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020



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