as far as jokic's star potential, i'd take embiid over him just because i think he'll be an mvp candidate if he stays healthy. i think jokic could be v good, but probs tops out at an al horford kind of career imo

jokic's lack of athleticism NOT affecting his value in the playoffs would be pretty surprising to me despite how good he is on offense

it's not even that i think he's bad on d in reg season, but i think in the playofs there's a certain level of intensity that could expose him a bit no matter how good his decisionmaking/positioning is


for the same reason i think you could convincingly argue turner/staps are > jokic too, and i think towns is obviously>jokic despite the wolves being disappointing this yr

It seems to me that there is 0 history of this being the case with Centers in the NBA. Any prior guys you can refer to or is this just, "i've got a feeling"

This is probably correct if you're looking at it like 'highest median win shares' or something. Maybe Harris over LaVine even. My list was gambling on upside a bit more. Top 3 pretty set whichever way you look at it though, big drop after Jabari.

I think you guys are all jumping off Gordon too quickly though it's likely it turns out looking like I'm wrong since he may just stagnate in a bad situation.

i think there's enough examples of 'finesse play' being relatively less effective in the playoffs in general to make this assumption. additionally, big weaknesses get exploited more often

the example that springs to mind recently is more brutish center types being seemingly more effective in the playoffs, whether it's due to extra motivation / refs letting them be more physical or whatever. guys like tristan thompson or steve adams


with jokic it's a hunch cos we have no relevant sample, and ofc he might be fine, but i think concerns over defense due to his flawed tools are probably high on the list of reservations most people have about his ceiling

There are and definitely should be concerns over his defense at this point. Last year he was a very good rim protector given his age/experience, but his numbers have fallen off this season. I do think that a lot of it has to do with scheming and perhaps more importantly his fouling reputation, but there is only so far you can go defensively when you aren't a threat to erase shots. I think it's somewhat overblown because he's not that different athletically than say an TRG, Pau, or even late-model Timmay, but he isn't on their level now and it would be too optimistic to assume he will get there.

I do think that even a playoff ready team would struggle against him, perhaps even more than another star. You can't load up on him and thus far teams that have tried to play him physically get destroyed because he just drives on them and is an amazing finisher for a guy who never dunks. He's also shooting like 42% for his career from the top of the key which puts even more pressure on centers, and as others have said he destroys shorter players by just dirking over them.

Speaking of which, that might actually be his best comp. He will never imo be a top 5 player because of said defense and his position, but I think it's pretty safe to put his floor at top 15 and ceiling a few spots higher.

In order for Denver to be a contender they are going to have to be very careful in who they put around him though, but you can say that for most stars ITL.

Oh btw I think you can safely put Embiid over him even with injury concerns, Joel's ceiling is easily top 5 ITL because he's been pretty damn elite defensively at times and his "path" to being a big time 2 way player seems pretty realistic.

So you're standing on the hill of 'i have a feeling'.
It just doesn't make sense. You plan to win the game. Jokic has proved very effective at helping win games. Now you bring up his ceiling as a defense when Jokic is a top 30 NBA player RIGHT NOW

being bearish on wiggins is understandable, but lavine is a stretch. reminds me of jr smith, like knicks jr smith. though he seems better off the dribble than jr smith was. may have even more questionable decision making

(looks at standings, then looks at roster full of top 10 assets and nice vets, then looks back at this sentence)

240 minutes of on court time in an NBA game. 3 of Denver's top 6 guys in minutes played are garbage.

Gallo
Chandler
Mudiay
Jameer
Jokic
Barton
Faried
Nurk
Gary Harris > Andrew Wiggins

That's not a bad 9 man rotation. If Jokic was really a star and not just a good player that happens to score super high on certain advanced statistics, I think Denver would already be quite good.

2014 Draft re-do

1. Embiid
2. Parker
3. Wiggins
4. Jokic
5. Randle
6. Lavine
7. Gordon
8. Hood
9. Payton
10. Harris
11. Smart
12. Saric
13. Nurkic
14. Capela
15. Clarkson

The race for 8 seed in the west is pretty lol, Mavs/Wolves tied for last at 11-26 are only 4 games out of the 8 seed.

Sixers would only be 4 games out from making the playoffs in the West. And they're improving!

They are +1.7/100 with him on, - 8.7 with him off. He's definitely helping them win games when he's on the court, it's been like the diffeeence between at 44
Win team and a 25 win team afa on/off rating is concerned. Some of that is noise but it was similar last year.

Top 17 in PER, RPM, WS48, and BPM is pretty awesome for a vet let alone a second year guy.

Hawks fans who think we lost this trade are either stupid or love mediocrity. There is absolutely no value to having Korver.

We cannot compete with this core so long as LeBron James is alive and plays basketball in the Eastern Conference. He does this right now and that appears to be likely to continue for the next few years. Getting a 1st Rounder a few years from now is fine even though it will still be very late in the round, but the other benefit to losing Korver is that it makes us more likely to miss the playoffs in a year when the lottery is stacked.

Sure we're in 4th place right now, but thats only after a 6 game win streak and we're only 4 games out of 11th. Ideally we can also deal Millsap soon and get a good lottery pick for it. Best hope is for Amir Johnson and the Nets' first that Boston has the swap rights for. They'd have to throw in a player for a salary match too. Not sure what they think of Jaylen Brown, but he sucks right now so that would be ideal for us, but honestly I'd take whatever they wanted to give if we got that first.

At that point I think we can try to rebuild from a solid base.

jaylen brown is going to be very good, but ya hawks should obv dump

Mudiay, Jammer and Murray are top 6 in minutes played on Den. They are all awful as we sit here today. Keep ignoring the obvious which is JOKIC is really good

Especially mudiay, I can't tell you how impressive it is for them to have a top 10 offense with him getting so many minutes. I think in a lot of ways Denver and Nikola have been hurt by him being so good so fast, it's given them false hope that they should compete now when they should be selling off their vets and cap space for young players.

What's terrible is going after that 8th spot, that will give at best a 4/1 loss against the warriors

all the team fighting for that last play-off spot, have a little chance to upset the rockets, the spurs or the clippers, but not against warriors

Play-off experience for a young team is only good if your team can battle through 1 or 2 series

Agreed guivre. I think Denver has enough assets to swing any two of say Otto Porter, WCS, or Aaron Gordon. Those are guys who are young, athletic, and most of all fit with Jokics playing style and timeline. With some luck they also get a good spot in the lottery and and get another nice piece.

It sucks that Denver's attendance is so low and the FO probably rightly wants to start winning, but it really would be in their best interest to try and take advantage of desperate teams rather than join them. We shall see.

How could they get two of those guys? I assume it wouldn't involve getting rid of Mudiay/Murray/Harris/Jokic. Gallo/Faried/Nurk? Picks?

don't think i was. Just pointing out that he's not a top 17 player in the league. I also don't think Ricky Rubio was a top 20 player last year even tho he was like 9th in RPM

Bennett waived by Brooklyn

And so ends the NBA career of the worst draft pick of all time.

The difference between Rubio and 9th in RPM last year was bigger than the difference between him and 50th, so kind of weird to use that as your example. Also note that RPM more so measures one's performance in his given role than projection and ability