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Measuring Changes Over Time in Defensive Effectiveness (How Hard it is to Score in the NBA)
There is a stat that measures how hard it is to score, called League-Wide Offensive Rating (ORtg), and it is the same as it was 30 years ago.
This proves that the rule changes over the years have not changed defensive effectiveness... Instead, the rule changes resulted in a zero-sum game: where the defense gains in some areas (i.e. quasi-zones allowed), it loses in other areas (defensive 3 seconds, no more physical play), and the overall level of defensive effectiveness remains constant.
And the new defensive strategies resulted from the rule changes anyway, so in the
absence of the rule changes, the new strategies aren't needed.... the new defensive strategies only ensure that it remains equally hard to score under the new rules as it was under the old rules, and constant league-wide ORtg over time proves this.
http://grantland.com/features/packin...their-offense/
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A lot of the defensive strategies you see now are a natural evolution from rule changes,” says Houston GM Daryl Morey..
...he (Thibodeau) was the first coach to stretch the limits of the NBA’s new defensive three-second rule and flood the strong side with hybrid man/zone defenses."
Case Example:
On this play, look at Love (near the bottom of screen by the score) and Waiters (top of the key) - both are beyond the 3-point line.. Noah and Hinrich have to pay attention to these guys out there
while being careful not to enter the paint because of defensive 3 seconds, which gives them no chance to help on Varejao; so Varejao finishes easily and in stride after Lebron makes the cupcake pass - it almost looks staged.
In previous eras, say the 80's, this play would look a lot different... Love would be in the paint or very near, so Noah would be camping in the paint the entire time... and back then, the 3-point shot was not used, so Waiters would not be at the 3-point line spreading the floor - instead, he would be inside the 3-point line and closer to the paint, which would allow Hinrich to frequently camp in the paint himself.
So back in the day, Love and possibly Hinrich as well, would have been camping in the paint waiting on Varejao - and with Noah waiting for him, Varejao does not finish this play, let alone make it look easy strolling down the open lane... but in today's game, the 3-point shooting coupled with defensive 3 seconds clears the lane of defenders, which forces teams to use extra strategy to maintain defensive effectiveness - in the end, defensive effectiveness is maintained despite the new rules opening up the paint, and league-wide ORtg remains stable over time.
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Last edited by Pollack's Stats; 11-02-2014 at 01:59 PM.