nice post pokeromglol

Agree with Bobbo. Very nice post Pkrmglol.

jesus, you guys are acting like he could have died. Sure it doesn't help to increase someones chances but you guys are beating this issue to death.

Dwight Howard would be more valuable to just about every team in the league imo.

CP3 is great, but NY shouldn't have an issue with offense.

Can someone explain to me why Memphis is a bad matchup for Dallas or is this just some random talking point that the media talking heads have made up for no reason? I've heard it in multiple places and I don't see it at all. It seems like the advantage Memphis has on most teams is that they don't have the size to guard both Gasol and Randolph, but Dallas can use Chandler to shut down Z-Bo and then put Dirk on Gasol since his only real advantage is size and he won't really be able to do that much against another 7-footer. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Memphis doesn't have the kind of quick, athletic bigs that can stay with Dirk at all.

Oklahoma City on the other hand looks like a nightmare matchup to me. Westbrook is exactly the kind of quick, slashing point guard that the Mavericks have no defense for at all, and Ibaka should have a lot better chance of staying with Dirk than anyone the Grizzlies have. I basically feel like a Grizzlies/Mavericks Western Conference Finals would be enough of a mismatch in the Mavericks' favor that I wouldn't even be scared, but the Thunder would have a great shot and would almost be a tossup.

I'm guessing that there's just some kind of overreaction to Memphis being 3-1 against Dallas in the regular season, right? That doesn't really seem very valid to me at all considering that Dallas was +13 against the Grizzlies except for the game where Dirk played 15 minutes coming off the injury in a game where the Mavs only scored 70 points.

Iggy, I'm with you. OKC has a better shot at beating DAL than MEM. People are in love with MEM, for good reasons. But this is how I see it:

On the Dallas side of things...
-Kidd is a great guard against the bigger/stronger PGs, and can match up on SGs. He doesn't do well vs quickness. Neither JJ or JET are known for defense.
-Marion/DeShawn/Brewer were made to guard SFs, but aren't exactly lockdown.
-Dirk, Chandler, and Haywood is the big rotation (with Peja as a 4 the small ball alternative). Of that group, Chandler and Haywood are big physical centers whereas Dirk is still a legit 7ft who is habitually underrated as a defender.

Offensively...
-The strength is obviously Dirk. Offense is run through him, as very few players can actually guard him, given his versatility and excellence.
-The secondary options are Terry (small/quick G) and a plethora of outside shooting. (Peja, Kidd, DeShawn, etc.)

In other words, teams that funnel offense through their bigs (like Memphis, between Marc and Z-Bo) are at a disadvantage, as Dallas's defensive strength is in their bigs. Teams that funnel offense through the perimeter (RWB/Harden/Durantula, obv) are at an advantage, since Dallas lacks a lockdown superb defender + quickness to contain explosive PGs. (Think about it, so far they've only had to deal with Andre and DFish, similar age/style)

On the flipside, OKC has a Dirk defender in Ibaka. He's long and springy, super athletic and active. Memphis does not. For all of Z-Bo's awesomeness, he's short, doesn't jump, and doesn't block shots. His defensive strength is metered in positioning and excellence on the glass; Dirk is not a threat to board, so he's somewhat mitigated. As far as the other options, the first big off the bench is Darrell Arthur. After him, it's Iranian Giant Haddadi, no ACL Powe, and ???. Memphis's best bet will be to put Battier on Dirk, but that means playing small ball, as either Gasol or Z-Bo will be out of the game.

Further, although Memphis has stronger perimeter defense over OKC, Dallas doesn't lean on a high usage wing like LAL does - instead, it's a shared ball philosophy off of open 3s. OKC is the better coached team to defend against that, whereas MEM is all about forcing TOs.

Also, ignoring all the precise matchups, and although MEM has captured the hearts of all fans, the fact is OKC is simply the better team. (Even if it's razor-thin) There's *nothing* that suggests MEM is better than OKC, or that they have the medicine for Dallas.

I expect Dallas to beat both teams, but against OKC I predict it in 7. Against MEM, just 5.

Dallas fans should obviously be cheering for Memphis & Atlanta.

FWIW I think OKC and MIA are parallel teams in terms of construction. RWB ("SG") is to Wade as Durant (SF) is to LBJ as Ibaka (PF) is to Bosh. Clearly Miami has the stronger 3player core (it's not really that close) but OKC has the stronger supporting cast. OKC relies on drawing fouls, so does Miami. 3pt shooters are spread around both teams, as Maynor, Harden, and Cook are to Bibby, Jones, and Miller. Both teams have centers that offer ZERO offense and are entirely defense/rebounding concerns. (Perkins/Collison compare to Big Z/Joel/Dampier)

The teams that OKC match up well against are the same as MIA, etc etc

Obv it's not super cut and dry, but if DAL is looking ahead to Eastern opponents, consider this...

Possible Dirk defenders:
Atlanta - JSmoove. Super athletic, questionable on ball defender, more effective as a 3. Horford. Low foul rate, but not a great contester. More of a rebounder. Marvin? Small ball 4 is somewhat of a disaster. Collins? Functions much better vs big powerful 5s where he can flop and draw turnovers. Zaza? More of an agitator, hard to see that working against the German. Powell? LOL. Thomas? LOLOL. Hilton? LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLl
Conclusion: Atlanta is ****ed

Miami - Bosh. Yeah, he's not ideal. But lost in his offensive struggles are the fact he's turned in a great defensive effort. Look at his matchup vs KG; he's not doing much, but KG's numbers blow. He's long enough and more of a finesse driven player, which is the type of defender that does OK vs Dirk. Anthony. He's well suited to guard Dirk; he's long, great block rate, doesn't board at all which is irrelevant vs the jump shooting Dirk, and switches beautifully. LBJ. Another guy where the small ball 4 he can match up on Dirk. 2nd best DPOY imo.
Conclusion: Miami has the right mix of guys to contain the playoffs MVP.

Boston - Probably silly to even consider them, since being down 3-1 to Miami is a death sentence. But, KG is the ~best defender in the league, is long, brilliant IQ, great height, etc. Obviously the perfect Dirk defender. Conclusion: Wont matter, but Dallas doesn't want Boston.

Chicago - Boozer. lol, lacks heart, ethic, height, and jumping ability. In the Z-Bo/Horford mold of rebound first, contest later. Noah. With a cross match, exposes Boozer on Chandler or the like. Noah is long and active, although somewhat of a foul box. Consider him an average Dirk defender. Taj. Young player who can be fooled, he def is the best defender of the 3 for Chicago. Asik/Thomas - great defenders, but solely interior/post/big meat guys. They wont want to/be able to defend Dirk on the perimeter that well.
Conclusion: "Meh".

As far as that's concerned, Atlanta > Chicago > Miami

Where opposing teams get their offense...
Atlanta - They score on the wings, between Johnson/Crawford/Smoove (as a 3). Very little posting, mostly garbage long 2s. Marion is a good matchup on Smoove, being a flex 3 himself. Kidd was able to guard Kobe; I see no reason he will struggle on an inferior version of Kobe in Johnson.
Conclusion: Not ideal, but not a problem.

Miami - LBJ and Wade, obv. Wade is quick, not finesse oriented, like Kobe/Johnson. Hard to see Kidd on him at all. JJ Barea? Terry? Not liking that matchup. Marion is the best bet for LBJ, but he's more of an average stopper.
Conclusion: Ouch.

Boston - Ray and Pierce. Basically Miami, just not as good. Obv we don't really need to consider this.

Chicago - Rose, Rose, and Rose. Super quick PG.
Conclusion: Probably the worst matchup, since Dallas has no one who can match up on him.

All in all, Dallas wants Atlanta, ofc. Wont happen. After that, prob slightly prefers Chicago to Miami, esp. bc they don't have HCA vs either.

Very good posts boobbo

I see dirk really embarrassing zbo if they meet....

What happened during reg season ?

i'm a little bit worried for the mavs against both those teams. i could def see terry/barea's effectiveness being severely limited once they come up against really athletic wing defense, especially terry who's playing out of his mind atm and deserves a good chunk of credit for their success. it'd really hurt their offense if those guys can't create imbalances with drives, and if the 3pt looks start drying up (or stop falling) the mavs are in trouble no matter how well dirk plays

and as for the mavs d, okc poses obvious problems for the mavs, but even with memphis who knows. i keep expecting their offense to dry up cos on paper their wings aren't that dangerous, they don't shoot well, and rely so heavily on zbo. but it keeps working so i'm gonna believe until it stops

really looking forward to the wcf no matter what the matchup is tho, the amount of uncertainty is really making these playoffs great

Couldn't Memphis start the game with Randolph on Marion and start Battier to put on Dirk?

Not buying that Bosh is shutting down KG. MoML.

I'd be pretty surprised if ZBO even guards him, and ZBO won't be stopped by anyone, including the Mavs bigs. ZBO gonna ZBO. Mavs still obviously decent favorites in that series though.

No reason ZBo can't guard Marion.

ehh zbo on marion wouln't work out well at all imo. marion would hang out on the perimeter and is pretty fast cutting into the lane, zbo's too slow to provide good help from out there while still trying to keep an eye on marion, plus that kinda keeps him away from the basket rebounding. don't see any other way than zbo on dirk for memphis

it's been said a bunch of times too that dirk really doesn't have a problem with smaller guys anymore and the evidence in the playoffs so far confirms it

Marion can't finish nearly as well as he used to be able to and now has no outside shot at all. I'd be perfectly fine letting Marion get whatever he ends up creating for himself as long as their not wide open dunks.

Bobbo making a very long post to conclude that Dallas would greatly prefer Atlanta, while slightly preferring Chicago over Miami.

heh

i think it'd be offball stuff that'd cause problems, marion is no threat 1on1 but it really makes it tough on zbo playing d on a perimeter oriented guy who'd force him to move around a lot more than he's used to

Zbo can pretty much just leave him open though and dare him to try to initiate towards the rim or shoot it. Its not worth having zbo get tired chasing him around when a Marion jumper, even an open one is prob a bad dallas possession.

Question for TZ:

What player do you most want to see win a championship? I know there were probably a lot of people happy to see KG and Ray Allen finally get a ring when Boston won (less so Pierce methinks). What individual player would you be really happy to see get a ring this year? Obviously try not to just say "player xyz from my favorite team" unless there's a legit reason for doing so.

All of the Dirk talk has made me realize that if/when Atlanta goes out, I'll probably cheer for him to get a ring. He seems like a nice down-to-earth guy and has been ridiculously good for a long time, but doesn't get the love he should sometimes. Would love to see him win it all.

It's Dirk/Nash then a huge gap to everyone else imo. Both have legit gripes for getting screwed out of hardware when they were the best players on really good teams, both fun to watch, Nash makes funny videos, both white, etc.

I'd like to see consumate NBA pro Carlos Boozer get his

Also Peja was a major member of that Kings team that got royally ****ed, so if Dallas wins he would get a karma rang as well.

Dirk and Nash
Lebron X4 (if only to stop the Kobe comparisons)
CP3
Dwight
Nene
Lawson
Kenyon
Gallo
JR Smith

how could I forget about nash, jfc of course.

Dirk/Nash have to be the leaders in this race for me, kidd third. Also some randoms like peja+bibby for the kings riggage, Shane Battier because he's a good, smart guy and a dookie. JJ redick for gettin the haters mad.

I'm also gonna throw in mark cuban which makes the mavs even more karma-heavy. I don't agree with everything he's done/said but he's passionate, actually gives a ****, and lives and breathes that basketball team. I would rather see him clutching the trophy as opposed to any other owner, plus there would probably be some hilarity involved.