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NBA Offseason Thread 2019 NBA Offseason Thread 2019

07-09-2019 , 01:57 PM
I think Celtics over is the best bet on the board. I am very bullish on them to the point I think they might have value at 25-1 to win it all.
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheQuietAnarchist
those silly gooses at 538 are back at it, with a new DRAYMOND metric:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-nba-defense/

TL, DR:

new metric that incorporates number of shots a player is primary defender on and how often the shot goes in compared to avg % for that distance. this has been around for a while in some form, but they go into some detail on how well this works with 5 year RAPM, and how it compares to RPM / BPM.

according to author, RPM severely overrates several defenders that dont really pass the eye test, including:
kyrie
russell
jokic

meanwhile, it underrates others, including:
klay
kemba!
Porzingis killing the DRAYMOND
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
West regular season thoughts
1) Jazz
2) Nuggets
3) Clippers (load management baby)
4) Blazers
5) Lakers
6) Rockets
7) Warriors
8) Kings
---
9) Suns (!)
10) Spurs

East
1) Sixers
2) Bucks
3) Celtics
4) Pacers
5) Magic
6) Raptors
7) Nets
8) Heat
---
9) Hawks (CaCAW)
10) Pistons

Not exactly many hot takes in here, just wanna have something written down to look back at.
Suns a 9 is a pretty hot take.
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 02:15 PM
I don't want Joker winning the MVP because that means he'll probably have over-extended himself and have little left for the playoffs.

I like AD, Embiid, ofc Giannis, and DAME.
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 02:19 PM
Harden?
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 02:31 PM
I just think there is some fatigue with how he plays, and I'm not feeling they'll be good enough in the West this year. Yes they are a similar team to the one that won 60+ games, but I question their chemistry and lame-duck coaching staff really caring at this point... plus guys like Ego and PJ are getting up there in years.

If Utah weren't so deep I'd give one of their guys the favorite as I can see them having the best record ITL, but it'll probably be more like the Spurs were when they had a more egalitarian team.
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 02:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheQuietAnarchist
i do have to say, looking at the rosters again, both milwaukee and indi have just horrible depth as things stand. some of their young players will need to make a jump into respectability.
TQA,

It's Indy, with a Y. Thanks.

Sincerely,

Everyone from Indy
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 02:52 PM
Parker on the Hawks will be a fun fit

Starting frontcourt of Collins, Parker, Hunter
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
if there's one bit in there that makes me end up looking like a dumbass, it's me rating the heat so low. if they have jimmy and westbrook that could be enough to get 3rd or 4th in the east pretty ez. but i think that franchise has a high chance of injury risk from a primary contributor and their pieces around jimmy/westbrook arent v exciting cept for BAM. Herro could have a great rookie campaign if he cracks the rotation.
If the heat trade for Russ, you were right that they’re the dumbest team in the league
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 03:04 PM
Just the thought of the biggest Russ slanderer here having his young promising guys traded for him.
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 03:18 PM
i called the heat dumb cuz they put in a bunch of terribad contracts that guaranteed them the 8 seat for four years + zero title equity.

idk what kind of dumb you call acquiring westbrook, depends on what they give up to get him. but there's a chance it could go so terribly that they end up at the bottom of the standings in like 3 years, so that increases their future title equity from 0 to nonzero. that's at least something. unless, of course, they give up future picks to get him. then i'd comfortably call them the dumbest, most middle-of-the-league seeking team in the last decade.

Quote:
Originally Posted by markksman
Suns a 9 is a pretty hot take.
they are making a massive coaching upgrade (finally), monty is way better than their previous 4 clowns. also they go from having no point guard to having rubio. their young pieces age another year (think sacramento), they will shoot a lot of 3s and not play great D, but their point differential will be something like -2 and the west outside of the top 8 will be bad (spurs will finally eat crap this year).

maybe my too-hot-take is being so dismissive of the pelicans but i think they will need a year to gel and figure out who they are, and its not unrealistic to think they trade Jrue for assets at some point.
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 03:27 PM
I'll be having some Suns under this year
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 03:29 PM
people say LOL suns but this roster is full of solid'ish players with a much higher basement than ppl think. not a high ceiling tho.

PG: Rubio, Tyler Johnson
SG: Booker, Cameron Johnson (if his hips survive he is shooting 40% from three)
SF: Bridges, Oubre (eh, this area sucks i'm not gonna lie)
PF: The Homie Dario, Frank The Tank
C: Ayton, Baynes

that is not a 25 win team imo. that team is conservatively getting 32 wins. not unrealistic to get spicy and say they make a Kings'ish run by shooting lots of threes and being coached competently by Monty.
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 03:39 PM
i think dario / frank is weaker than bridges / oubre.

i do think that the suns are well put together fit-wise
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 03:45 PM
Saric VORP by season: -0.1, 2.0, 0.5, 0.7
Frank: 0.3, 0.2, 0.5, 0.1 (uptrending offensive projections and downtrending defense, interestingly)

Mikal Bridges: 1.1
Oubre: -.7, -.1, 0.4, -0.1, -0.3, 0.2

idk its close but i think floor spacing 4s are sorta static in terms of their value to the league offensively, so if you're making the case they are bad it's more in terms of their value on defense, and in this case saric and frank are kinda bad. but oubre and bridges are going up against the other teams star wing, and wings are freaking loaded. they prob have one of the worst pairings at the 3 whereas saric/frank are like slightly below average as 4s.

bridges VORP is actually interesting, maybe he's less bad than i thought. didnt watch him much last year, obv.
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jwd
I think Celtics over is the best bet on the board. I am very bullish on them to the point I think they might have value at 25-1 to win it all.
Celts-Nugs Finals matchup at 120-1 is worthy of a sprinkling
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 03:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
people say LOL suns but this roster is full of solid'ish players with a much higher basement than ppl think. not a high ceiling tho.

PG: Rubio, Tyler Johnson
SG: Booker, Cameron Johnson (if his hips survive he is shooting 40% from three)
SF: Bridges, Oubre (eh, this area sucks i'm not gonna lie)
PF: The Homie Dario, Frank The Tank
C: Ayton, Baynes

that is not a 25 win team imo. that team is conservatively getting 32 wins. not unrealistic to get spicy and say they make a Kings'ish run by shooting lots of threes and being coached competently by Monty.
Nah that team's awful, and Monty Williams is not a "huge coaching upgrade" over anyone. Lol Suns.
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 03:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Francis_MH
Celts-Nugs Finals matchup at 120-1 is worthy of a sprinkling

Sprinkles!

I like this as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Banzai-
Nah that team's awful, and Monty Williams is not a "huge coaching upgrade" over anyone. Lol Suns.

lol Montell Williams would do a better job coaching them than Monty Williams.
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 04:08 PM
coaches who Monty is better than:

- Pierce (ATL)
- Borrego (CHA)
- Boylen (CHI)
- Casey (DET)
- Vogel (LAL)
- Jenkins?? (MEM)
- Saunders (MIN)
- Fizdale (NYK)
- Donovan (OKC)
- Walton (SAC)
- Brooks (WAS)

List of coaches Igor/Watson/Triano/Hornacek were better than:
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 04:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
bridges VORP is actually interesting, maybe he's less bad than i thought. didnt watch him much last year, obv.
it is interesting. advanced stats seem to like him decently well, and that was playing 30mpg as a rookie (granted, a 22yo rookie).

i think he projects to be a very solid player for them.
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 04:17 PM
Lol Suns
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
coaches who Monty is better than:

- Pierce (ATL)
- Borrego (CHA)
- Boylen (CHI)
- Casey (DET)
- Vogel (LAL)
- Jenkins?? (MEM)
- Saunders (MIN)
- Fizdale (NYK)
- Donovan (OKC)
- Walton (SAC)
- Brooks (WAS)

List of coaches Igor/Watson/Triano/Hornacek were better than:


Verdict is still out on Fizdale.

Knicks were actively tanking last season like jfc.
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 04:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seadood228
Just the thought of the biggest Russ slanderer here having his young promising guys traded for him.
Not slander. I was right
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 04:43 PM
bradley is washed. all the injuries throughout his career may have taken their toll or maybe his value was overrated due to stevens. the suns are going to be bad again, but maybe not sub 20 wins bad


edit: would be shocked if they won 30 games
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote
07-09-2019 , 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POKEROMGLOL
Porzingis!!

Who knew it was hard to score on a 7'3" guy who moves like a guard.

Quote:
Originally Posted by markksman
Porzingis killing the DRAYMOND
Take that for data.



Spoiler:
clueless ****s who can't take valid suggestions/criticism
NBA Offseason Thread 2019 Quote

      
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