Quote:
Originally Posted by kidcolin
So he needs to avg 2k for 6 more years. I suspect he'll Yao out before then.
Well, look, no one can predict the future precisely, so, of course, he (or any other player) could be out of the league after G1 of next season.
But if you really want to think about whether KP is likely to last another 5/6 seasons in the league you can do several things (separately or together). (i) look at guys at, let's say at least 7', or 7'2"- or wherever you like to draw the line - and look at their career lengths, (i)(a) try to do (i) but factoring in usage; (ii) do something similar, but trying to account for 'body type' - where that's obviously an inexact, but real, thing. A twist on that would be to try to estimate if the roles that a player in your categories fills now are similar to historical precedents or not (eg in terms of likely contact).
For me, (((eye-test))), KP is a completely different phenotype from Yao, and probably will be used over his career in a completely different way (given the importance of the 3p shot, low EV accorded to posting up, etc).
I literally see nothing to think that KP won't - baring freak events - be in the league as long as Kareem, Smits, etc.