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NBA Offseason Thread 2017 NBA Offseason Thread 2017

08-07-2017 , 09:32 AM
Draymond is not a floor spacer. 31 from 3 last year 33 for his career. And his form looks like he's jumping out of a cake
08-07-2017 , 10:32 AM
lol'd
08-07-2017 , 11:56 AM
What's a good individual defensive metric?

Thoughts on defensive win shares as useful/accurate?

thanks!
08-07-2017 , 12:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulzgold
What's a good individual defensive metric?

Thoughts on defensive win shares as useful/accurate?

thanks!
Well I think at the top end it does work.

Look at the top 10 of DWS for 2016-2017 season:

1) Gobert-6
2) Green-5.4
3) Drummond
4) Whiteside
5) A Davis
6) Leonard
7) D Jordan
8) RWB
9) Giannis
10) Dwight-4.5

IDK, to me that seems like a pretty elite list of defenders. I don't think it necessarily always works but it's pretty good.

DBPM for qualified players (1500 minutes plus)

1) Green 5.0
2) RWB 4.7
3) Gobert 4.5
4) Giannis 3.5
5) Deandre 3.0

Seems pretty similar so again it's probably a good stat especially for someone who plays a ton of minutes. I'm not sure if RWB is an elite defender but basically everyone else on both lists is seen as it.

I will just say, I wouldn't just look at 1 advanced stat like PER to decide a player. You need to look at them all and if they all tell the right story (i.e. they align with how things are typically perceived), they're probably close to being right. Personally I like looking at PER, TS%, WS/48, OWS/DWS and usage as my favorite stats.
08-07-2017 , 01:28 PM
Mega multi-quote post incoming...

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyA
I'd assume that team RPM wins doesn't take into account strength of schedule, so all the East teams actual projected wins should be higher than the RPM wins listed due to playing each other so many times.
This is a good point. Does anybody know if it's true? (RPM not using SoS)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scherer716
probably going to deal him for an expiring if they can.

bleacher report just put out 5 deals the lakers should consider before the end of the season. one of which was; clarkson going to charlotte, lamb + o'bryant + nugs 2nd to brooklyn and then trevor booker's $9mm expiring to la and some other non guaranteed contract.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...mming-national
Interesting article. Seems like decent suggestions. Especially pawning off Deng to Nets by including Randle (if he improves) + future 1st (from Clarkson or Lopez trades).

If the Lakers clear 2 maxes and somehow land both LeBron and Paul George, that yields a team of Lonzo, Ingram, George, LeBron, Zubac, Kuzma, Nance, Ennis, Hart, vets & mins.

If Lonzo & Ingram develop/improve over the next 2 years, what % chance would you give this team vs GSW in 2019?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Banzai-
I got this as one of the wrongest things you've ever said. Maybe in magical fairy land where they both swallow their ego and alter their games to suit each other it might not drop off that much (but would still be worse), but in the real world they would spend every game fighting each other for touches, and just be a better version of KD + RWB or 2011 Lebron + Wade. Curry's willingness to play the roll he does as the reigning back to back MVP doesn't get anywhere near the credit it deserves. It's possible extra D would make up for it but it would have a LOT to make up in my opinion.
This seems like a better real world opinion vs fantasy seamless integration of LeBron into GSW.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heroball
It's almost like no one watched Curry watch Lolndre Iguodala win Finals MVP for "slowing down" GOAT while Curry stumbled through embarrassing performance after embarrassing performance in the only Finals he won as the #1 option.
You're using quote marks because Iguodala "slowed" LeBron down to 35.8/13.3/8.8/game, and didn't deserve the MVP, right? (Yes, he shot poorly.) And all those "embarrassing" performances by Curry, apart from the 1 bad game, amounted to 27.4/5.0/6.6/game on 64.1% TS, 61.1% eFG, 29.5% Ast%, 28.1% Usg, 21.0 GmSc, 113.2 ORtg, 101.6 DRtg. Do you think that is actually embarrassing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by vinivici9586
Don't have super in depth analysis but I figure since Draymond and Durant are the top 2 or 2 of the top 3 Labron facsimiles, you're better off with curry


Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheeljks
lebron's offensive versatility would allow him to dominate within that system or any system ofc, but stylistically it's quite different than the way he has typically played and he has some tendencies that could hurt the offense. the integration of durant was about as seamless as could be reasonably expected imo, and it wasn't actually that seamless if you look back on it. the takes were flying earlier in the season when curry was shooting below 40% from 3 for the first time, was generally playing tentatively, etc. there was a clear transition period and it wasn't terrible, but it was real. the pieces fit weirder within lebron, which is expected seeing as it wasn't built with his skills in mind. specific elements of his play that don't mesh are preferred pace and ball movement. think people will prob jump on the ball movement comment b/c lebron is an elite passer, but he likes to hold the ball and take his time. all that said it could easily be better with him. it wouldn't really surprise me if lebron on the warriors turned into much more of a catch and go player.

i also agree that the swap likely improves the dubs overall b/c a death lineup when lebron instead of curry has an insane defensive ceiling and it's not like the offense is going to fall off a cliff w/lebron even if it is worse.

comparing curry/lowry in that fashion is lol though and i like lowry way more than most here. the basis for that take is prob something like "lowry can shoot 3s ok off the dribble too" which is 1) reductive 2) incorrect
Great post. LeBron being a great passer but not a great ball mover is a good distinction.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffRas22
The biggest problem is that Draymond is essentially LeBron-lite (in every way). A lot of their offense is putting Draymond in spots as a creator (the midpost, screener when they know Steph is getting doubled) with tons of off-ball action. I've always found it a little baffling that teams don't just say ok Draymond if you're gonna beat us beat us and stick with the shooters, similarly to LeBron. Now LeBron is obviously more skilled as a scorer than Draymond but I think it's a valid point for both. Anyway, a bit of a ramble there but my point is, throw LeBron on the Dubs and he's gonna take Dray's place in a lot of those spots. I think Draymond's passing ability for a guy his size is what makes him such a plus on that side of the ball, but with LeBron in his role he'd spend a lot more time off the ball and become a guy you can just help off of. This was already a concern with Durant, but Durant is an elite 3 pt shooter so he can space the floor off the ball. LeBron is not. Consider their "death lineup", which would obviously be insane defensively, it would have at least two of Dray/Iggy/LBJ off the ball. This would still be an elite offense because of the talent/scheme but I don't think it's possible for them to perform at the level they did last year.
Another good post, with good rationale for the offense dropping off when switching Curry for LeBron.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcb33f
geoff, nit point and sorry for just ignoring the rest of your post and the greater discussion, but i think opposition teams don't really have the option to 'make dray score' imo (or at least not a good one)

the possessions where dray is a creator are often when teams have doubled steph beyond the 3pt line and are giving up a 4 on 3 anyway, there's always going to be someone open so you can't shut it down once the situation is created other than just forcing dray to score over the guy at the rim (which does work if you've got a good enough rim protector in position). obv dray is involved in a lot more offensive actions than that, but i think that example is worthwhile - it's kind of hard to stop a guy who's just being a link in the chain and not used as the point of attack which is the case on many of the other hc actions dray is involved in

just leaving him wide open to help more is in practice the closest thing that defenses come to trying to make dray beat them. but that doesn't really work too well either, wide open shots from even dray/iggy type mediocre shooters on halfcourt possessions are still really good outcomes relatively. that said if you're trying to scheme against the woyas, that might still be the best chance to try and ride some variance to a decent defensive game

cliffs: it's hard to stop the woyas, more at 11
And a good counter, with one of the takeaways for me being that Dray derives a lot of value from Curry that he likely would not get from LeBron.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMVP
I mean if you swap Curry for Lebron then trading Draymond is a no-brainer.

Lebron/Durant/Klay + a decent return from Draymond is > than the current big 4 imo.
Even as a member of Team GSCurry>GSLeBron, I agree theoretically with the above. Because in a vacuum, of course LeBron > Curry, and if you can construct perfect/great fit around them, the LeBron team should beat the Curry team.

That isn't what we were originally discussing though, where I maintain that regarding the current GS team construction alone, Curry enhances the offense much more than LeBron, who would likely change the whole system and reduce the efficiencies gained out of great ball movement and the strengths of existing GS players. Another way to say it is that Curry makes the GS players better on offense more than LeBron would, due to gravity, spacing, ball movement, more & better quality 3's, role, personality, etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heroball
Interesting thought experiment.

What's a decent return for Draymond that fits in w/LBJ/Durant/Klay and makes sense for their trading partner? CP3? Warriors throw in Livingston to make salaries work.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RebeccaTwigley
LeBron-Klay-Iggy-KD-Gasol. If you have to keep Iggy that is. Other wise any 3-D wing. Always said LeBron and Klay are the best hypothetical and realistic 1-2 ever.
Gasol is great and would be very interesting. LeBron has traditionally wanted/played with another smaller ball handler out there, so it seems more likely that they'd start Livingston over Iggy or another 3-D wing. I'm also not sure of LeBron playing the 4 full-time defensively. He has traditionally not wanted to do that, and has mainly guarded/been the big in primarily smaller lineups vs each other. Would Durant guard the 4 full-time? You're not likely starting West or McGee, or playing 2 of Gasol/Zaza/West/McGee together for huge minutes.

This yields teams of:

Team Curry: Curry/Klay/Durant/Dray/Zaza, bench Livingston/Iggy/Swaggy/West/McGee/McCaw, etc
Team LBJ 1: CP3/Klay/Durant/LeBron/Zaza, bench Iggy/Swaggy/West/McGee/McCaw, etc
Team LBJ 2: Livingston/Klay/Durant/LeBron/Gasol, bench Iggy/Swaggy/Zaza/West/McGee/McCaw, etc

I'm not sure of the exact order of these. Thoughts?

Quote:
Originally Posted by vinivici9586
Draymond is not a floor spacer. 31 from 3 last year 33 for his career. And his form looks like he's jumping out of a cake

08-07-2017 , 01:48 PM
dpbm and dws correlate pretty strongly to individual drtg which is not a good defensive statistic b/c of the way it apportions defensive credit. i'd pick drpm if i was going to use a single defensive stat

Edit: May not be true of dpbm actually but I think so. Def true of dws
08-07-2017 , 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by patron
Mega multi-quote post incoming...


And all those "embarrassing" performances by Curry, apart from the 1 bad game, amounted to 27.4/5.0/6.6/game on 64.1% TS, 61.1% eFG, 29.5% Ast%, 28.1% Usg, 21.0 GmSc, 113.2 ORtg, 101.6 DRtg. Do you think that is actually embarrassing?

Heroball is RAIDS fyi. Just in case maybe you thought the person knows anything about basketball and deserves a serious response.

Great post overall though. Great points and analysis.
08-07-2017 , 03:07 PM
Kinda shocked Iggy got the MVP that year. Clear best player was bron but on losing side. Curry had a number of good games and Iggy just won because curry wasn't as good as he normally is while Iggy was much better. Not sure how much credit Iggy really deserves for shutting down bron when kyrie/love were hurt.
08-07-2017 , 03:41 PM
08-07-2017 , 03:46 PM
That's the greatest thing I've seen in quite a long time. Is there a complete video of that?
08-07-2017 , 03:55 PM
Best I can do



08-07-2017 , 08:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AcTiOnJaCsOn
Heroball is RAIDS fyi. Just in case maybe you thought the person knows anything about basketball and deserves a serious response.

Great post overall though. Great points and analysis.
lol thought raids was gone, should have known better. on his 5th or 6th account now.

what happened to the guy dog train or w/e, he was the jordan guy all the lebron slappies hated.
08-07-2017 , 08:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinivici9586
Draymond is not a floor spacer. 31 from 3 last year 33 for his career. And his form looks like he's jumping out of a cake
He hit 39% the year before and is 44% career from the corner.
08-07-2017 , 08:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scherer716
lol thought raids was gone, should have known better. on his 5th or 6th account now.

what happened to the guy dog train or w/e, he was the jordan guy all the lebron slappies hated.
Had a mental breakdown where he copy and posted the same 3 7000 word blurbs about the triple threat on over 30 diff accounts (mods kept deleting his posts within minutes). Not even exaggerating he created so many accounts. It was terrifying.
08-07-2017 , 08:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffRas22
Had a mental breakdown where he copy and posted the same 3 7000 word blurbs about the triple threat on over 30 diff accounts (mods kept deleting his posts within minutes). Not even exaggerating he created so many accounts. It was terrifying.
Twog still posts as 609 in the Jordan/Lebron thread.
08-07-2017 , 08:55 PM
lol at reading that thread
08-07-2017 , 09:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by w_alloy
He hit 39% the year before and is 44% career from the corner.
Not sure I've ever seen draymond take a corner 3.
08-07-2017 , 10:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by westhoff
Not sure I've ever seen draymond take a corner 3.
He's 4/9 for his career
08-07-2017 , 10:28 PM
He's 46/130 according to NBA.com
08-07-2017 , 10:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Banzai-
I got this as one of the wrongest things you've ever said. Maybe in magical fairy land where they both swallow their ego and alter their games to suit each other it might not drop off that much (but would still be worse), but in the real world they would spend every game fighting each other for touches, and just be a better version of KD + RWB or 2011 Lebron + Wade. Curry's willingness to play the roll he does as the reigning back to back MVP doesn't get anywhere near the credit it deserves. It's possible extra D would make up for it but it would have a LOT to make up in my opinion.
I don't view basketball the same way you do then. I don't think teammates fit well due to a narrative about them both sacrificing and putting their egos aside. I think thats almost entirely ESPN-driven narratives that entertain the masses. I think the reason teammates fit or not is due to the type of player they are. I just made this post today in the single season draft thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher
I think you should ask these 3 questions:

-Do both gain a significant part of their value from their creation ability?
-Are both mediocre/bad 3pt shooters?
-Are you unable to play one at Center for extended minutes in most games?

If the answer is "yes" to all then they aren't a good fit imo.

I would make a slight amendment....for the second statement, I would add that if one player is clearly better than the other then its absolutely mandatory that the lesser can shoot 3s(this is why RWB/Durant didn't fit well).

Lebron is passable as an off-the-ball shooter, and Durant is obv great. Because of this, I think they'd fit fine.


If you prefer narrative driven analysis that attempts to psychoanalyze each player and determine how willing they'd be to sacrifice their ego for the good fo the team, then I guess we're just talking past one another and theres no real discussion to be had.

Quote:
Or he just has a different opinion of what the word 'better' means in basketball. I personally doubt that, gun to his head, if he had to pick a team to play for his life he would pick Kobe over Lebron, but rather that he thinks Kobe's winning MAKES HIM better than Lebron. I could be wrong though.
I agree that its possible MJ interpreted the question differently and that he would've answered "Lebron" had he interpreted it the other way. But the parlay of both those things being true has to be sub 50%. I would certainly bet on it if we could. MJ is just a regular casual fan when it comes to evaluating players. This myth that former stars have some super keen insight has long been put to rest. Plenty of casuals think Kobe > Lebron.



Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheeljks
lebron's offensive versatility would allow him to dominate within that system or any system ofc, but stylistically it's quite different than the way he has typically played and he has some tendencies that could hurt the offense. the integration of durant was about as seamless as could be reasonably expected imo, and it wasn't actually that seamless if you look back on it. the takes were flying earlier in the season when curry was shooting below 40% from 3 for the first time, was generally playing tentatively, etc. there was a clear transition period and it wasn't terrible, but it was real. the pieces fit weirder within lebron, which is expected seeing as it wasn't built with his skills in mind. specific elements of his play that don't mesh are preferred pace and ball movement. think people will prob jump on the ball movement comment b/c lebron is an elite passer, but he likes to hold the ball and take his time. all that said it could easily be better with him. it wouldn't really surprise me if lebron on the warriors turned into much more of a catch and go player.

i also agree that the swap likely improves the dubs overall b/c a death lineup when lebron instead of curry has an insane defensive ceiling and it's not like the offense is going to fall off a cliff w/lebron even if it is worse.

comparing curry/lowry in that fashion is lol though and i like lowry way more than most here. the basis for that take is prob something like "lowry can shoot 3s ok off the dribble too" which is 1) reductive 2) incorrect
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffRas22
The biggest problem is that Draymond is essentially LeBron-lite (in every way). A lot of their offense is putting Draymond in spots as a creator (the midpost, screener when they know Steph is getting doubled) with tons of off-ball action. I've always found it a little baffling that teams don't just say ok Draymond if you're gonna beat us beat us and stick with the shooters, similarly to LeBron. Now LeBron is obviously more skilled as a scorer than Draymond but I think it's a valid point for both. Anyway, a bit of a ramble there but my point is, throw LeBron on the Dubs and he's gonna take Dray's place in a lot of those spots. I think Draymond's passing ability for a guy his size is what makes him such a plus on that side of the ball, but with LeBron in his role he'd spend a lot more time off the ball and become a guy you can just help off of. This was already a concern with Durant, but Durant is an elite 3 pt shooter so he can space the floor off the ball. LeBron is not. Consider their "death lineup", which would obviously be insane defensively, it would have at least two of Dray/Iggy/LBJ off the ball. This would still be an elite offense because of the talent/scheme but I don't think it's possible for them to perform at the level they did last year.
both good posts imo
08-07-2017 , 10:34 PM
The Way of Assani itt NBA Offseason Thread 2017
08-07-2017 , 10:44 PM
Assani, the biggest fit issue is the on Heels made. You're replacing Steph, who is the greatest shooter of all time, a willing off the ball screener, and a guy who has shown to be extremely adept at making quick passes the Warriors system requires, for LeBron who is a much worse shooter, and, while one of the best passers of all time, a guy who clearly likes to take his time while assessing the situation, reading the defense, etc. LeBron would figure out the quick passes and cuts, but it would definitely be a case of him adapting to his environment rather than operating in his optimal circumstances.
08-07-2017 , 10:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffRas22
lol at reading that thread
lol ive misclicked on it twice and decided to read a few posts, its the same people participating for YEARS on end now. had to capitalize for dramatization. posting or reading that for several years warrants caps
08-07-2017 , 11:08 PM
That thread is great entertainment imo
08-07-2017 , 11:19 PM
I don't think optimal circumstances is how I'd describe it. Lebron has a style of play he's comfortable and very successful with but he might be even better if he put in the work to embrace the Way of the Warrior.

      
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