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NBA Offseason Thread 2017 NBA Offseason Thread 2017

08-04-2017 , 11:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by capone0
Meh. Projections are just that. Bottom of the east and west were pretty equivalent this year. In fact the heat/pistons were better than the nuggets/pelicans. Not sure, but heat likely the best post all star team to not make the playoffs all time. They were on fire to end the season. West definitely won the fa/trade markets but I'm not sure who other than the cavs should have been gunning for stars in the east for next year.
Wat. We're not talking about the bottom of the league, we're talking about the teams that matter. You're talking about teams that aren't even in the playoffs. Looking at playoff teams, the East barely even has a winning record against the West, 124-115, 52%. The West absolutely smashes the East, 155-85, 65%. That's 30.5 games better! And even including bottom West playoff teams, it's a better winning record overall and on average than every single individual team in the East, besides matching the East 1 seed.

The top East team went 17-12, 59% vs the West, while the top West teams went 25-5, 83% vs the East! Even taking the top 2 teams out of it, the East went 91-89, 51%, while the West went 105-75, 58%!

Basically the West just absolutely destroys the East in every single way where it matters, it's likely to get even worse, and it's completely ridiculous to say "meh" and talk about non-playoff teams.

Work shown below:

East record vs West
RankTeamWinsLossesWin%
1 BOS 17 12 58.6%
2 CLE 16 14 53.3%
3 TOR 17 13 56.7%
4 WAS 17 13 56.7%
5 ATL 13 17 43.3%
6 MIL 15 15 50.0%
7 IND 16 14 53.3%
8 CHI 13 17 43.3%
  TOT 124 115 51.9%

West record vs East
RankTeamWinsLossesWin%
1 GSW 25 5 83.3%
2 SAS 25 5 83.3%
3 HOU 19 11 63.3%
4 LAC 20 10 66.7%
5 UTA 20 10 66.7%
6 OKC 18 12 60.0%
7 MEM 15 15 50.0%
8 POR 13 17 43.3%
  TOT 155 85 64.6%
08-04-2017 , 11:29 AM
The top of the west is better, did I say something to the contrary, the spurs and warriors skew the results a ton and are really good especially during the regular season vs the west. I think the title tiers last year were gsw >>>> cavs >>> spurs/houston >>> Boston. Cavs only way ahead of spurs/Houston due to the conferences. If there weren't, I think the cavs and spurs were on similar footing especially with playoff Lebron but maybe kawhi led spurs are much better...I'm not sure.

I think the gap widened. I like that the west teams are trying but likely will fail to the warriors. The top of the west >> top of the east. The rest of the leagues are pretty comparable especially last year, that was my only point.
08-04-2017 , 11:46 AM
I've done this work before and it got shrugged off as not mattering before because reasons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffRas22
Uhh, ok. How bout this- the 6 teams the Cavs played the two last years combined to go 100-80 vs the West with a +2.9 PD, the 6 teams the Warriors played the last two years combined to go 105-75 vs the East with a +2.6 PD.
Where it matters the most is in the 1st round, where the top of the East will play a worse team but even that when you consider equity it really doesn't end up mattering that much (bc the top seeds in the West are still huge favs vs bottom of the West). There isn't some enormous gap between Toronto & Utah of last year though. I'm obviously not arguing the East is as good as the West, I just think it gets overblown. This year though, with Butler/George going West is going to be the biggest the gap will be. Although I would argue (obviously depending on where Kyrie ends up) that Cleveland and Boston are as good as any non-GS team in the West.
08-04-2017 , 12:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by capone0
The top of the west is better, did I say something to the contrary, the spurs and warriors skew the results a ton and are really good especially during the regular season vs the west. I think the title tiers last year were gsw >>>> cavs >>> spurs/houston >>> Boston. Cavs only way ahead of spurs/Houston due to the conferences. If there weren't, I think the cavs and spurs were on similar footing especially with playoff Lebron but maybe kawhi led spurs are much better...I'm not sure.

I think the gap widened. I like that the west teams are trying but likely will fail to the warriors. The top of the west >> top of the east. The rest of the leagues are pretty comparable especially last year, that was my only point.
That's because the main point above is wrong. I even addressed it already before your post:

Quote:
Even taking the top 2 teams out of it, the East went 91-89, 51%, while the West went 105-75, 58%!
That's an enormous disparity, even when you take GS/SA/Cle/Bos out of it. Again, and with added rebuttal:

Quote:
Basically the West just absolutely destroys the East in every single way where it matters, it's likely to get even worse, and it's completely ridiculous to say "meh" and talk about non-playoff teams or to say that the rest of the leagues are pretty comparable especially last year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffRas22
I've done this work before and it got shrugged off as not mattering before because reasons.

Where it matters the most is in the 1st round, where the top of the East will play a worse team but even that when you consider equity it really doesn't end up mattering that much (bc the top seeds in the West are still huge favs vs bottom of the West). There isn't some enormous gap between Toronto & Utah of last year though. I'm obviously not arguing the East is as good as the West, I just think it gets overblown. This year though, with Butler/George going West is going to be the biggest the gap will be. Although I would argue (obviously depending on where Kyrie ends up) that Cleveland and Boston are as good as any non-GS team in the West.
That's because the reasons are good. You're cherry picking small sample sizes where the West still > the East, and if you consider all of the West playoff teams vs East playoff teams, there are large disparities.

And you're doing it again. For some reason you compare the East 3 seed vs the West 5 seed and say, oh the West 5 seed isn't way way better than the East 3 seed, your narrative is overblown. Okay, let's compare the 3-5 seeds. The East went 47-43, 52%. The West went 59-31, 66%. That's a huge difference.
08-04-2017 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffRas22
I've done this work before and it got shrugged off as not mattering before because reasons.



Where it matters the most is in the 1st round, where the top of the East will play a worse team but even that when you consider equity it really doesn't end up mattering that much (bc the top seeds in the West are still huge favs vs bottom of the West). There isn't some enormous gap between Toronto & Utah of last year though. I'm obviously not arguing the East is as good as the West, I just think it gets overblown. This year though, with Butler/George going West is going to be the biggest the gap will be. Although I would argue (obviously depending on where Kyrie ends up) that Cleveland and Boston are as good as any non-GS team in the West.
OK so the top two teams in the East are in the same tier as the 2-4th best teams in the West, nice, but the West has the tier all-by-itself team and the West has twice as many tier 3 teams?

That seems like an enormous gap. Compare the teams fighting for playoffs spots in the West (POR, UTA, LAC, NOP, MEM) to the teams fighting for playoff spots in the East (CHA, DET, ORL, PHI)

On a macro level there's no comparison between the two conferences. Cherry picking opponents (who had injuries on both sites) in playoff series doesn't work on any level unless you're just talking about the binary nature of the playoff format where you'll only play 3 teams and not the 7 other teams that made the playoffs. That's true, and in that sense the actually road to the finals perhaps gets a little overblown, but at every step of the way (regular season and each round) the West is likely to be either slightly tougher or egregiously tougher.
08-04-2017 , 02:04 PM
Quote:
unless you're just talking about the binary nature of the playoff format where you'll only play 3 teams and not the 7 other teams that made the playoffs. That's true, and in that sense the actually road to the finals perhaps gets a little overblown
This is my main point. Also should be clear that I was talking about before this year. I think the West is gonna be ridiculous this year. Hilariously enough GS will still run away with it. lol at them not being the best team of all time.
08-04-2017 , 02:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aejones
OK so the top two teams in the East are in the same tier as the 2-4th best teams in the West, nice, but the West has the tier all-by-itself team and the West has twice as many tier 3 teams?

That seems like an enormous gap. Compare the teams fighting for playoffs spots in the West (POR, UTA, LAC, NOP, MEM) to the teams fighting for playoff spots in the East (CHA, DET, ORL, PHI)

On a macro level there's no comparison between the two conferences. Cherry picking opponents (who had injuries on both sites) in playoff series doesn't work on any level unless you're just talking about the binary nature of the playoff format where you'll only play 3 teams and not the 7 other teams that made the playoffs. That's true, and in that sense the actually road to the finals perhaps gets a little overblown, but at every step of the way (regular season and each round) the West is likely to be either slightly tougher or egregiously tougher.
This. Totally this.

And even if you're solely talking about the playoff road for the top teams, every round is harder in the West, with the conference finals being tremendously harder. SAS in the last couple years (or '16 playoff OKC) has been way better than Toronto or Boston.
08-04-2017 , 03:53 PM
I say **** east/west
**** extra travel - its 2017 not 1987
Make the NBA regular season schedule as equal as possible
And Seed the playoffs 1-16
08-04-2017 , 04:40 PM
Amen. Basically every team plays every other team 3x, except 2x for 5 teams. It's not hard.

But owners and execs love their silly little division/conference titles. No way that drives as much revenue as better playoff series would.
08-04-2017 , 05:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by patron
Amen. Basically every team plays every other team 3x, except 2x for 5 teams. It's not hard.



But owners and execs love their silly little division/conference titles. No way that drives as much revenue as better playoff series would.


Exactly.

patron, I like your style. NBA Offseason Thread 2017
08-04-2017 , 05:23 PM
That won't happen as long as Lebron as a free pass to the NBA finals every year
08-04-2017 , 06:28 PM
Get it together, East.

08-04-2017 , 06:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cinarocket
Speaking of redick, watched this yesterday which was great. Just really rare to see nba players open up like this with no bull**** and expressing themselves clearly. Redick has always been a great podcast guest and I hope he finds a spot on tv coverage after he retires

08-04-2017 , 07:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirOsis
Get it together, East.

If anyone wants to bet Minny vs Cle or Boston for regular season wins I'd be happy to oblige. Will even ignore the win difference in those great projections!!
08-04-2017 , 07:16 PM
def *some* bull**** there, "from the start of free agency i wanted to be in philly". wat clearly he was keen on houston
08-04-2017 , 07:35 PM
wow jj great watch
08-05-2017 , 02:21 AM
On sportsbook, the Wolves are 47 wins. Boston is 55.5
08-05-2017 , 04:28 AM
Wolves are an injury to Teague, Wiggins, or Butler, or Crawford away from playing DLeague guys. Heck, even if Butler misses his standard 15 games the Wolves are probably screwed in the hardest ever conference.
08-05-2017 , 12:06 PM
The Lakers win total is interesting. I think they need to move Clarkson by the deadline to be able to max 2 next year.
08-05-2017 , 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by All-inMcLovin
I say **** east/west
**** extra travel - its 2017 not 1987
Make the NBA regular season schedule as equal as possible
And Seed the playoffs 1-16
If you get rid of conferences, I say go with an unbalanced schedule where you have good teams facing each other more often. The NFL does stuff like that. The TV product is an important revenue source, so massage things for better games on TV.
08-05-2017 , 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BDHarrison
If you get rid of conferences, I say go with an unbalanced schedule where you have good teams facing each other more often. The NFL does stuff like that. The TV product is an important revenue source, so massage things for better games on TV.


I could definitely get behind this.
08-05-2017 , 06:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DodgerIrish
I'd try to see what Portland would throw into a Turner for Crowder plus pieces swap if I were Ainge.

Let Turner run the 2nd unit to his peak value (as Brad previously established) and sell high on an asset with a phenomenal contract. Crowder's value is only going to drop from here.

They'd prbly want Olynyk too if that can somehow be involved.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveSax
The Lakers win total is interesting. I think they need to move Clarkson by the deadline to be able to max 2 next year.
they could trade him next offseason too
08-05-2017 , 06:46 PM
Lose leverage though
08-05-2017 , 06:48 PM
Olynyk is on the Heat, that post must've been written awhile ago?
08-05-2017 , 07:04 PM
July 4th.

      
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