Ball
Pope
Deng
Ingram
Brook

Is pretty dope. Ball + spacing + wing defense + rim protection.

Lakers got a chance if Brook stays healthy.

I dont think Utah is going to fall off to much. Yeah they lost Hayward and 50 games of Hill. OTOH Fig Favors should be healthy again, Rubio, and rookie of the year candidate D.Mitchell they should still be pretty good.

T.wolves just have to much talent to not make it.

Blazers played really well once they got Nurkic. 13-3 record in March with the Nurk getting comfortable with the blazers.

The pelicans look good on paper. They make for a fun 2k basketball team. I just dont think they gel or stay healthy all year with this mix of players.

This is a big assumption. Last season was pretty scary for his long-term outlook. Had a couple different injury issues, missed multiple stretches, and looked busted on the court most of the time.

Has there been positive news regarding his injuries?

Except Nurkic broke his leg and has sucked save for a 20 game sample. Historically late-season runs do not have much impact on the next year.

Utah had 52 pythag wins last year. They lost Hill for Rubio, which is probably a net neutral given Rubio was a worse player but played more games. Hayward, otoh, played 73 games and had an AMAZING year, that loss is huge. What's more, Hayward and Hill were two of the only creators on that team, and a lot of Gobert's offensive surging came directly out of their PnRs... only now they have a PnR PG with no threat to pull up and it'll crowd Rudy's space because teams can just go under the screen. Mitchell is going to suck because all rookies do, and maybe Favors returns to where he was but he could also be done. I think 45-48 wins is about right.

Minny were a 38 win pythag team last year and added Butler/Gibson while losing Rubio for Teague. If we call the PG swap a wash for the same reason we'd call Rubio/Hill one, then their additions are just the two Thibs guys. I think those additions are easily worth 10 wins alone, and I think you can add another 5 for organic improvement of the young guys who are well below their peak years. I'm thinking 50-53 is about right for them, but the fit does not seem ideal.

OKC were a 43 win pythag team, acquired PG/PatPat and lost Yolo and Sabonis. A lot of their improvement depends on which PG13 we are going to see. Last year's George was barely a top 40 player but still miles better than Oladipo. My guess is he just didn't care last year, so I think it's safe to pencil him in as a top 20ish player. I think the addition of those two should lead to another 10-12 game improvement, which puts them at about 53-55 wins.

Denver were a 45 pythag team post Jokic starting, and basically traded Gallo for Millsap. Gallo was about a top 40 player and Millsap is closer to top 20, so the improvement isn't as great as some are making it out to me. I figure 2 more wins for Millsap>Gallo and another 5 wins for organic growth of their youngs, which is about 53. The fit is pretty good, but I could see things going bad for them if their young point guards can't make a leap...

I just can't bring myself to say Denver is going to win 50+ games even though the numbers all scream that out. I felt similarly last July when I said they'd win 40.

One thing I know is that Denver's opening line is going to be waaaay low and will per usual get bet up a few games, so get in while you can.

still think utah could make the playoffs but they are def going to fall off. they were already iffy in the scoring dept and even if favors is back and good to go-- he could easily get hurt again though-- they will still be very light on perimeter offense

Curious how Rubio/Gobert duo works out on offense.

Think it will go PRETTY WELL.

George Hill ranked in the 90th percentile in PnR "ball handler" offense, Rubio ranked in the 49th percentile on much fewer attempts. I'm guessing this gap is underrated because Rubio had guys who can pop, leaving open scoring opportunities, vs. Hill having Gobert at the rim.

Rubio took .4 pull-up 3's a game and shot 19%, Hill took 1.9 and shot 41%. That makes quite a difference in how they'll be defended, imo.

I'm having a hard time seeing how this doesn't make Gobert's job a lot tougher.

DSJ hurtling back to Earth

Quin tho.

Yeah Quin is pretty great, but I'm not sure what they can do about making Rubio a better shooter after all these years. My guess is every single player will get slightly more difficult looks all around.

could be popping, but i also imagine it's difficult to excel in pnr when you aren't a scoring threat off the dribble

Pretty cool article that goes into detail on Jokic's game.

I'm still taken aback by the efficiency numbers he put up as a second year guy. He was the best mid-range shooter and post-up player when factoring in attempts. This is on top of his GOAT passing skills.

All this in year 2 as a 21 year old.

Lol to all the slappies that think josh Jackson is going to be a bust. Dude is a stud.

Kinda looks like a hybrid of Corey Brewer and Josh Smith in skill-set, hopefully he's smarter. I don't know about his shooting ability.

I've only seen one SL game of his.

But did we win? Yuuuuuuup. They only gave the kid 15 mins tonight. Saving him to soil Ball if he can hold up his end later.

Smarter Skillier Rexier Gerald Wallace.

SL kinda boring now esp with most high draft picks resting or just breaking a sweat then resting.

Kind of a weird post to randomly make when no one was discussing him at all.

He sucks anyway imo.

Josh Jackson reminds me of 90's NBA. Midrange game.

LONZO incoming

SL kinda boring when 2nd and 3rd tier guys like Tatum and DSJ don't play/look like rooks.

LONZO never boring.

Feels like Lillard has top 5 WIM in the league and Portland gets one of those playoff spots

Time to watch Ball GOAT again

Turns out passing matters

Lol Foltz

Jackson looks like what was expected. If he learns to shoot he could be a good player at worst hes going to be a solid player. Hes not going to get talked about much when other guys have looked better and hes been just ok.

That ringer redraft had him at 8 which is seems about right at this point. Its still tempting to take Frank the mysterybox over him because the mysterybox could be something really good if it holds the right prize.

Agree with you on Portland's record w/ Nurk not meaning too much.

Last 20 games of the season is probably the least valuable 20 games to judge a team. 1/3rd the league is tanking, another 1/3rd is resting for the playoffs and Portland is trying to win every game to get the 8 seed.

I'm not feeling Utah at all. Favors/Gobert lineups make the court too small for a team that doesn't have the perimeter threats to create space for them. Rubio/Ingles/Hood are their 3 main perimeter options. JoeJ's iso style sucks for the regular season when teams are easily running their offense.

I just don't see how 1 of the worst offensive teams in the league is going to be able to make the playoffs in a loaded conference.

And Rubio/Favors/Hood are all players that fall into the "injury prone" category.