NBA ECF: Heat vs Celtics - Page 207 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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NBA ECF: Heat vs Celtics

View Poll Results: Who's winning?

Heat in 4

11 9.24%

Heat in 5

34 28.57%

Heat in 6

21 17.65%

Heat in 7

6 5.04%

C's in 4

4 3.36%

C's in 5

0 0%

C's in 6

11 9.24%

C's in 7

8 6.72%

Heat in negative infinity

8 6.72%

lol East

16 13.45%

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06-08-2012 , 12:23 PM

#5151

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dudd

You know what else matters? That they just lost by eleventy bazillion points on their own home court

Absolutely. Completely agree. So, you agree that Dean is making no sense, right?

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:24 PM

#5152

TheDean1

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 35,900

Goodie,

I think that you may be seeking validation from the wrong party given this reaction to the initial interaction:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dudd

Lol Goodie

You might have better luck getting approval elsewhere. But probably not.

Kisses,
Dean

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:27 PM

#5153

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDean1

Goodie,

I think that you may be seeking validation from the wrong party given this reaction to the initial interaction:

You might have better luck getting approval elsewhere. But probably not.

Kisses,
Dean

Actually, I've already VERY CLEARLY received validation from said party. He already has established that past performance does directly affect future results in basketball. Something you clearly don't grasp given your lottery analogy (where past performance does not affect future result).

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:28 PM

#5154

TheDean1

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 35,900

OK well I stand corrected then, that's quite the feather in your cap!

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:34 PM

#5155

Victor

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Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 72,166

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goodie

I'd go somewhere in the range of 40-45%. Obviously, I have homer bias in there so the real number is likely somewhere 35-40. But 21% seems insane to me.

Does everyone else agree that when evaluating the chances that the C's will win game 7, the game 5 performance is irrelevant?

I really don't understand why that would be the case. Wouldn't games played against each other, especially ones that have similar dynamics, be important to evaluating future results?

wat makes u think they arent being factored in?

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:38 PM

#5156

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by Victor

wat makes u think they arent being factored in?

The dean said my factoring in game five was the same as a lottery winner factoring in that he won the lottery as an indication that he will win again.

That's what made me think that. He admitted he was wrong though and I get that he doesn't understand logic (pot calling the kettle black in the past pages). I'll give him a pass since logic is really hard to get.

Maybe next time you'll make sense, Dean. Good luck with that!!!!

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:39 PM

#5157

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDean1

OK well I stand corrected then, that's quite the feather in your cap!

Yeah, it's okay. Logic isn't your strong suit. No worries, I knew that early on in this discussion.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:43 PM

#5158

TheDean1

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 35,900

lol

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:44 PM

#5159

bottomset

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Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 26,265

Guys he has a greater than 30per this postseason

We are being critical of a guy ave 30/9.5/5 ffs he's held to an absurdly high standard it's ridiculous

Part of being clutch is dominating so hard the last 5mins don't matter

Last night was the most clutch performance in the last 5years

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:48 PM

#5160

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by bottomset

I actually agree. I was commenting more on what the critics typically say. And unfortunately, there will be close games again in the future and if he doesn't perform well late in those close games, he'll always have that stigma. And winning a championship, especially if he has some clutch shots, will shut the critics up.

I'm much more of a Lebron hater than critic. I think the guy is an absolutely amazing basketball player.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:49 PM

#5161

mburke05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,928

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDean1

OK well I stand corrected then, that's quite the feather in your cap!

lol nh

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:56 PM

#5162

tuq

TEEJ

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 46,365

Goodie! I hope you are doing well, and am sorry that this series has put us on opposite sides of the rooting aisle. One of us must win and the other must lose, but such is the nature of competition. In just three short months our rooting interests will once again align as we cheer on Tom Brady to a late career rang.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 01:17 PM

#5163

Turn Prophet

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Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,558

Quote:

Originally Posted by bottomset

Agree with this. Make no mistake, I'm far more a Boston fan than a LeBron (or Heat) hater... it's not like he's Kobe or something!

Quote

06-08-2012 , 01:27 PM

#5164

Dudd

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Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 54,241

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goodie

I highly doubt that Dean believes that basketball games are independent events. However, his analogy, while admittedly imperfect, was far closer to reality than your selective picking and choosing of which games/facts to weight heavily depending on whether or not it fits your desired narrative. For example, did you know that home teams in game 7s have won something like 80% of the time? Given that every single one of those teams also managed to win 3 of the previous 6 games, I'm sure that like the Celtics game 5, they all had a similar game to point to as well.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 01:39 PM

#5165

vhawk01

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 31,866

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goodie

I'd go somewhere in the range of 40-45%. Obviously, I have homer bias in there so the real number is likely somewhere 35-40. But 21% seems insane to me.

Does everyone else agree that when evaluating the chances that the C's will win game 7, the game 5 performance is irrelevant?

I really don't understand why that would be the case. Wouldn't games played against each other, especially ones that have similar dynamics, be important to evaluating future results?

Its relevant. And so is Game 6. And so is the MIA-IND game from 2 weeks ago.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 01:43 PM

#5166

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dudd

I did not know that and to be honest, that does change my perspective a bit.

However, I know you hate me and you have to skew any post to make it so I look like an idiot, your statement that Dean's analogy was "imperfect" is way off based. Imperfect means that some part of the analogy works and that's not the case. It was just a completely incorrect analogy, not "imperfect" and my perspective, while flawed, has some evidence that can be cited to support it.

In conclusion, you really do have an unhealthy hate for me, especially given this is a VERY insignificant internet message board.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 01:43 PM

#5167

vhawk01

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Goodie

It is the same (although different magnitude). The lottery winner winning once and then thinking he is more likely to win again is actually true (him winning once increases the chances that he is rigging the lottery, has magic powers, is a time traveller from the future, etc), its just that its such a minute factor that his true odds are basically the same as anyone elses.

Similarly, we DO factor in Game 5 performance. Its just not that huge of a factor, and doesnt swing the line much, if any.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 01:55 PM

#5168

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by vhawk01

You're reaching. I know I'm public enemy number one but that doesn't mean I can't be right from time to time.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 02:00 PM

#5169

randominternet2345

Guest

Posts: n/a

I like blue sweater playing defense on the suit's inbound in that gif

Quote

06-08-2012 , 02:20 PM

#5170

TheDean1

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 35,900

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goodie

No f'ing way the Celtics are 21% to win this game. No way. They literally JUST beat this team on their court THREE f'ing days ago in an game that was almost as important. That's just insanity.

Goodie,

You're shifting the goalposts here. You were working with a single logical assumption (see quoted post): that the Celtics won in Miami 3 days ago. From that you arrived at the conclusion that the Celtics are > 21% to win. This is a silly leap.

I noted that you might have thought of a different argument in your head, which you seem to be claiming now. In that scenario my analogy becomes imperfect, but the basic point still holds that it nevertheless need not necessarily drastically alter the price. And my analogy split the uprights regarding your original contention.

Hope that helps!

xoxo,
Deanie

Quote

06-08-2012 , 02:24 PM

#5171

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDean1

So, a couple of posts ago you stand corrected and now you somehow think the analogy works again? Yeah, your grasp of logic and logical conclusions are worse than I thought.

Your analogy doesn't work, period. Game 5's performance ABSOLUTELY affects how people assess what will happen in Game 7.

A person winning the lottery does not, in any way, affect his chances of winning the lottery the next time out.

See the difference? Or are you going to SAY you see the difference now then three posts down say you don't see it again?

Quote

06-08-2012 , 02:31 PM

#5172

TheDean1

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 35,900

Goodie,

Reading comprehension is a very valuable trait in order to be a contributing member of a message board. I am rooting hard for you to at some point acquire this skill.

I love you very much,
Deanums

Quote

06-08-2012 , 02:37 PM

#5173

demokritosdeath

banned

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 126

Goodie:

Please stop, brother. You're not making yourself look very good here.

/neutral observer

Quote

06-08-2012 , 02:37 PM

#5174

asdfasdf32

True Facts

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 13,155

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dudd

I highly doubt that Dean believes that basketball games are independent events. However, his analogy, while admittedly imperfect, was far closer to reality than your selective picking and choosing of which games/facts to weight heavily depending on whether or not it fits your desired narrative. For example, did you know that home teams in game 7s have won something like 80% of the time? Given that every single one of those teams also managed to win 3 of the previous 6 games, I'm sure that like the Celtics game 5, they all had a similar game to point to as well.

This number surprised me, so I looked it up. Turns out home teams are 88-22 in game sevens in NBA history (exactly 80%). Never would of guessed it was that high.

http://www.nba.com/news/nba-playoffs....html?rss=true

Quote

06-08-2012 , 02:56 PM

#5175

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by demokritosdeath

Goodie:

Please stop, brother. You're not making yourself look very good here.

/neutral observer

Thanks for the input. The times that I get into trouble on this message board is when people overeact to a statement and come over the top with either analogies or statements that are entirely illogical. It drives me insane and I'm very condescending when it happens. Of course, in this case, Dean is just outrageously wrong and has already admitted it and then recanted, not to mention insulted me for the get go. He deserves to be made a fool of. Of course, he's handling the fool part all on his own. He's very good at it actually.

Quote

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