NBA ECF: Heat vs Celtics - Page 206 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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NBA ECF: Heat vs Celtics

View Poll Results: Who's winning?

Heat in 4

11 9.24%

Heat in 5

34 28.57%

Heat in 6

21 17.65%

Heat in 7

6 5.04%

C's in 4

4 3.36%

C's in 5

0 0%

C's in 6

11 9.24%

C's in 7

8 6.72%

Heat in negative infinity

8 6.72%

lol East

16 13.45%

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Page 206 of 273

First

6 106 156 186 196 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 216 226 256

Last

06-08-2012 , 11:42 AM

#5126

TheDean1

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 35,900

Quote:

Originally Posted by vhawk01

So if he does manage to make a few of these big, high variance shots, what will you conclude? That he finally learned how to be clutch? Or that you have been a moron the whole time?

Sick strategy say that he can't win until he does win at which point he can win. Good stuff

this isn't the issue

the issue is that he's shook late in close games and is scared of playing his game on offense and attacking the hoop

Quote

06-08-2012 , 11:43 AM

#5127

TheDean1

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 35,900

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goodie

No f'ing way the Celtics are 21% to win this game. No way. They literally JUST beat this team on their court THREE f'ing days ago in an game that was almost as important. That's just insanity.

if you rolled a die that landed on 1 three days ago, would you contend that it's > 21% to land on 1 again tomorrow?

Quote

06-08-2012 , 11:45 AM

#5128

TheDean1

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 35,900

of course the c's should be like -500 to win game 7 due to matters of heart and the heat having used up all of their run good in game 6, and the fact that wahiv has become full blown waids. if waids is gonna waids and lebron gets shook in the 4th quarter, the heat are going to need like chalmers to dominate so gl with that.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 11:48 AM

#5129

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDean1

if you rolled a die that landed on 1 three days ago, would you contend that it's > 21% to land on 1 again tomorrow?

This is a level, right?

Quote

06-08-2012 , 11:50 AM

#5130

TheDean1

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 35,900

no, i'm just pointing out how loltastic your lologic is

"it happened last time therefore it must be > 21% this time" is lolllllllllllll

is norfolk st > 21% to beat missouri if they had a rematch of the ncaa tourney round 1?

Quote

06-08-2012 , 11:53 AM

#5131

TheDean1

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is the most recent lottery winner > 21% to win the next time they buy a lottery ticket?

seriously that's probably the most ridiculous logical leap anybody has made here in quite some time. i'm sure you have other reasons in your head for saying that, but based on what you articulated, it came out prettay prettay bad.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 11:54 AM

#5132

mburke05

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,928

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDean1

lol did u just make a comment about sampling biases, and then use rungood as the basis for your game 7 prediction.

wat.

oh wait nvm you were being sarcastic (i think)

Quote

06-08-2012 , 11:57 AM

#5133

pwnsall

CFBBPC

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 65,606

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDean1

this isn't the issue

the issue is that he's shook late in close games and is scared of playing his game on offense and attacking the hoop

he used to do it all the time in cleveland

dunno wtf happened

Quote

06-08-2012 , 11:58 AM

#5134

TheDean1

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 35,900

Quote:

Originally Posted by mburke05

lol did u just make a comment about sampling biases, and then use rungood as the basis for your game 7 prediction.

wat.

oh wait nvm you were being sarcastic (i think)

i'm just getting my casual fan on tbh

i'm always so ingrained in reality and deferential to the point spread, felt it might be fun to diverge from that one time.

of course i'm still going to blast others who made ridiculous logical leaps, however.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:00 PM

#5135

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDean1

Dude, do you have a clue how to evaluate basketball? This has been a very even series and the Celtics have outplayed the Heat more often then not. The fact that they outplayed them in a very similar situation three days ago is VERY relevant.

You can't be serious with the norfolk st/missiouri analogy, can you? I mean, really dude?

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:02 PM

#5136

vhawk01

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 31,866

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goodie

Everyone who bets on basketball seems to disagree with you pretty hard

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:02 PM

#5137

Yeti

Abominable

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,208

what is the true % then goodie? you're saying the pinnacle line is significantly wrong, correct?

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:02 PM

#5138

pwnsall

CFBBPC

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 65,606

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goodie

and despite that the line for every home/away game has basically been the exact same

but i'm sure the most reasonable explanation is you know something everyone else doesn't

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:03 PM

#5139

TheDean1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pwnsall

he used to do it all the time in cleveland

dunno wtf happened

totally, i'm pretty sure that he just became deeply affected by the public scrutiny starting with the 2010 playoffs. skip bayless broke him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goodie

You can't be serious with the norfolk st/missiouri analogy, can you? I mean, really dude?

not surprised that you don't have the aptitude to see how that's analagous to the logic you used, given that you already demonstrated that you aren't good with logic.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:03 PM

#5140

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDean1

You just HAVE to be leveling. You know the differences between the lottery and an NBA basketball game, right? If you don't, you should literally never, ever, ever, ever post again, anywhere. But ESPECIALLY on a f'ing poker forum. My god, man.

My

God

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:03 PM

#5141

Dudd

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Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 54,241

Lol Goodie

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06-08-2012 , 12:09 PM

#5142

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yeti

what is the true % then goodie? you're saying the pinnacle line is significantly wrong, correct?

I'd go somewhere in the range of 40-45%. Obviously, I have homer bias in there so the real number is likely somewhere 35-40. But 21% seems insane to me.

Does everyone else agree that when evaluating the chances that the C's will win game 7, the game 5 performance is irrelevant?

I really don't understand why that would be the case. Wouldn't games played against each other, especially ones that have similar dynamics, be important to evaluating future results?

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:09 PM

#5143

mburke05

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http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celti...or-a-trip-west

wow its ON.

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:10 PM

#5144

hotwings18

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Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 11,317

Watching Lebron tool on the Celtics in a boston bar was hilarious

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06-08-2012 , 12:11 PM

#5145

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

lol @ the last few pages

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:14 PM

#5146

Dudd

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Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 54,241

Goodie, you know that they've played two other games in Miami besides game 5, right?

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:19 PM

#5147

SretiCentV

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 3,695

Bosh doesn't seem to be getting over the vaginal strain with any expediency and wade looks old and defeated. I like lebrons chances but this feels a lot like when I used to watch cavs games after the heat would get eliminated in the first round

Quote

06-08-2012 , 12:19 PM

#5148

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dudd

Goodie, you know that they've played two other games in Miami besides game 5, right?

Of course. They put up a dudd (no pun intended) in game 1, which was no surprise, and very nearly beat the Heat in Game 2.

So, three games there, won one, nearly won another and lost decisively a third. I'm not even really arguing the 21% anymore. Just someone tell me Dean is way off in his assessment that none of those games matter in determining likely outcomes for Saturday.