i was convinced kings would snap up trae about halfway into the year but its pretty obvious that trae is no longer good enough for the kings to **** it up

i do however think its possible they trade down, but that goes down a deep rabbit hole.

I think Vivek would be too paranoid about getting sniped so he just takes control and selects Trae at #2.

It will be quite the face melter to say the least.

I think another year of Fox + JJJ and WCS as the roll man would be kinda nice if Stein would just get his head out of his ass and stop thinking he's going to be the next Dirk. Seems most obvious to me and sets them up to have a nice young core going forward in Fox/Buddy/Bogdan/JJJ/WCS, but it's the Kings..

problem with kings taking JJJ tho is joerger is a zero. dont trust him to use JJJ effectively at all.

i almost think bamba does better on that roster compared to JJJ and Ayton.

The more i look into this draft class i think it's very overrated. Outside of Doncic & Ayton i struggle to see sure fire high level talent, Haven't seen enough of Porter & he's coming off of an serious injury so who knows with him. I see two standouts, a few boom or bust players( Porter, JJJ & Trae Young) & a bunch of solid role players pretty much.

Doncic can't guard point guards in the nba, more like lol@him playing p.g.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Luka-Doncic-7273/

Dude is 6'8 228lbs at age 19, he has great size even for a S.F.

I still have faith in WCS as 5 on O and a (whatever you want) on D. Seems like that wouldn't pair well with Bamba or Ayton, but I always harken back to "it's the Kings".

I'm seeing JJJ fall in mocks and I just don't get it. I'm not quite on Dean's level of optimism for him, but he seems like a lock to be a bigger version of Paul Millsap at worst, with unlimited yet highly variant upside.

I just don't see that with guys like Ayton or Bamba and most definitely not Bagley/MPJR/Trae...

just because you are the primary ballhandler doesnt mean you automatically guard the other teams point guard. see ben simmons.

i'm low key amazed that we had a full season of this and there are people still chirping that because doncic can't guard 1s then he isn't a 1.

doncic is already elite out of the pnr, you want him as your 1. ainec. he can defend whoever the coach wants him to defend, but give him the ball and let him run the offense.

my pessimism on ayton lines up a lot with my pessimism on tatum last year. college game looks inefficient. then a good coach turns him into a very efficient player who can handle the big moment.

when i see ayton and bagley i see dudes who are just not built for the modern NBA. ayton not being able to defend the rim is very troubling.

but i'm not gonna say that they are automatically worse than JJJ. Yes JJJ is hyper efficient and built for modern NBA, but there is no saying that either ayton or bagley couldnt become elite monsters if given actual good coaching.

thats why its very tough to guess on these things. deans analysis on JJJ makes sense (the most sense tbh) just by going HAM on the numbers. but i've taken a step back from those numbers just a teeeeensy bit after tatum. players (especially really young ones) can be molded into something different by talented coaches.

many posters here don't think highly of calipari and coach K (iirc cal really misused KAT) so these things always have to be taken w/ a grain of salt.

i'll be pretty salty if hawks take bagley above JJJ but what can you do? i could end up being totally wrong about my JJJ love.

alright Dean you convinced me. I got JJJ #2

Ayton is a fraud

JJJ is probably the best athlete in this draft, he fouls way too much though & reminds me of Zach Collins due to that. JJJ feels looks a huge boom/bust, so much other solid options i'm not sure why you take him top 5.

Looking back at Dean's board from last year, his two biggest takes were Lonzo #1 and Tatum 7th (was projected 3rd everywhere). Not a good look

Maybe Dean is actually Tim Connelly.

What does Marvin Bagley do to be regarded as a top pick in this draft? Every highlight of him all i see is a 6/10 athlete who has decent size for a 4 but trex arms, no defense & all he does is shoot. Dude looks like a stretch 4 with no defense, somebody show me some highlights of him creating offense for himself please. I don't understand why everybody think he's some superstar offensive talent.

The year before that he had Ingram and Bender >> Simmons and Jaylen Brown.

I'm lower on Bagley than some people, but describing him as a shooter who doesn't create offense for himself is completely wrong. Shooting is the worst part of his scoring ability while operating in isolation and creating his own offense is his best attribute.

Dean, like most people in the projections business is just a self-promoter that harped on a small sample of success to convince others they had some extraordinary ability. In reality, there isn't anyone I have ever been made aware of who's projections on professional success can't be explained by a normal distribution of outcomes when compared to just using the consensus.

This also applies to guys outside of sports like Nate Silver. Good for him for capitalizing on running hot one year, but its not some special talent its just run hot. Given how many people make projections on events like this there will be people with very good and very bad results, but over time they don't prove repeatable.

Show me highlights of him creating offense for himself please, i can't find it anywhere. I almost feel like he's only scoring well because it's vs college athletes who are smaller & not athletic & can't play defense. Does he have a handle? Can he create separation off the dribble? Like what does he do offensively that will translate to the nba that makes him elite, i haven't watched much college bball but from highlights he looks like some random player to me.

it was hard, but I googled "marvin bagley highlights" and clicked the first result which is basically all plays he creates for himself and alley-oops and a couple of blocks mixed in. There is like no shooting at all in the video so its weird that you think hes a shooter.

I don't necessarily share the optimism of others (actually, I have no opinion), but it is easy to see why some people are high on Bagley. You can't teach athleticism and some people are willing to gamble that athletes can be taught. And people will look at Jayson Tatum and think that Bagley can also be a better defender than projected. He doesn't have to be a great defender. He just doesn't have to be an obvious weak spot who can be attacked constantly in pick and roll. Being able to switch onto a smaller player and not be a disaster is more important than shot blocking. He probably has the physical tools, but can he be taught?

He's a guy who can be an All-Star if he has the intelligence and will to do so and a role-playing energy big if he doesn't. That's something you're usually not going to know just from watching him play.

90% of those highlights were putbacks & him catching alleyhoops, is that suppose to change my perception that he's an amazing athlete or amazing offensive player? The only thing that video made me adjust is that instead of a 6/10 athlete, he's now a 7/10 one instead for his position.

My predictions for draft night currently:

1. Ayton to the Suns
2. Doncic to the Kings
3. Buss-ley to the Hawks
4. Porter to the Grizz
5. Bamba to the Mavericks
6. Trae Young to the Magic
7. JJJ/Wendell Carter Jr to the Bulls
8. JJJ/Wendell Carter Jr
9-30. All role players left, so who cares

p.s Wendell Carter Jr will have a better career than Bagley, love his size & game, easily translatable to the nba for a center. Bagley is a less athletic, worse ball handling Aaron Gordon, picking an energy guy at #3 is going to be so terrible.

Mikal Bridges would be sick at 10 for the sixers. Fits an up and coming team to a T and would be helpful vs the warriors and Celtics.

Dean’s 2018 Draft Takes of Note

19. Mikal Bridges
13. Josh Okogie
11. Jontay Porter
4. Zhaire Smith

Nate, maybe, but I don’t think the same logic applies to Dean.

Although it’s a difficult task to predict the NBA draft, there are draft evaluators who, by virtue of how they write/what they value, clearly demonstrate superior qualitative and quantitative understanding than others. Being “wrong” for tenable reasons shouldn’t be conflated with being wrong without a reasonable justification.

Regarding Dean’s 2017 takes: Tatum’s situation is similar to Kawhi’s and I think should be heavily considered within that prism (even more so than Kawhi imo). I still think Lonzo ends up being more valuable than Tatum so not sure Dean’s even going to get dunked on there as hard as he dunked on the Wiggins apologists.

having Lonzo > Tatum is one thing, 7.Tatum is quite another


Lol hotsnakeoilsman Dean