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Old 02-26-2017, 12:31 PM   #201
TingsRgunagetGROSS
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

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No such thing. Wasn't Greg Oden considered bust proof?
Greg Oden was not a bust on the court.....

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Old 02-26-2017, 12:53 PM   #202
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

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Greg Oden was not a bust on the court.....

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he was a bust as a draft pick.
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Old 02-26-2017, 12:57 PM   #203
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

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he was a bust as a draft pick.
he was not a bust talent wise and he proved it on the court for what little time he was healthy, get over it
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Old 02-26-2017, 01:07 PM   #204
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

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he was not a bust talent wise and he proved it on the court for what little time he was healthy, get over it
why does this matter? He wouldn't go in the top 10 if you had to redraft that draft knowing what we know now. That's a bust. The fact that he got hurt instead of just not being good is irrelevant. He didn't turn out to be worth the pick or even near it, thus he is a bust.

If Ball wins ROY then gets hurt and never becomes good he will be a bust too. This is why there is no such thing as being bust proof.
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Old 02-26-2017, 01:10 PM   #205
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

I always considered busts guys who sucked like Kwame and Darko, not guys who had their careers cut short because of injury or death.
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Old 02-26-2017, 01:42 PM   #206
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

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I always considered busts guys who sucked like Kwame and Darko, not guys who had their careers cut short because of injury or death.
you are totally right and I agree with you.......
CDL is trying to make a point that he doesn't understand which is the most important skill in any sport is Health and yes it's a skill. It can't be quantified but it is a tangible thing and the most important aspect of sports
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Old 02-26-2017, 01:43 PM   #207
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

Health is a def a skill when it comes to guys like Oden. BUST

Wasn't like it was some freak injury or anything. Just made of glass.
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Old 02-26-2017, 01:44 PM   #208
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

I would define a bust as anyone who doesn't live up to their draft value for any reason. I don't think anyone is ever a "sure thing."
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Old 02-26-2017, 03:20 PM   #209
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

You are a truly putrid poster


And that is a sure thing
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Old 02-26-2017, 03:48 PM   #210
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

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I would define a bust as anyone who doesn't live up to their draft value for any reason. I don't think anyone is ever a "sure thing."
LEbron was/is.
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Old 02-26-2017, 06:33 PM   #211
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

I would recommend everyone debating this "bust" criteria pick up The Undoing Project, the newest Michael Lewis book, if only for the first few chapters. The first couple chapters detail a lot of Morey's moneyball relating to drafting. Lots of variance in drafting and lots of ways to tweak and improve your model for selecting players. They go into detail on why their model failed them in 2008 choosing Joey Dorsey when DeAndre Jordan was still on the board.

Bust is just a word, to me it means when the draft pick fails, not accounting for skill in the act of picking. Injury variance is included. It would be nice if we invented another word that means bust, but a bust that involved the player's talent being misread, or something that could tag a higher % likelyhood that the talent evaluator made a mistake.

Most of the psychology in building systems for evaluation have inherit flaws and biases, and the book covers a lot of the mistakes people make.
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Old 02-27-2017, 12:50 AM   #212
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight View Post
No such thing. Wasn't Greg Oden considered bust proof?
No way, he was injured at points. Big men with nagging injuries are never considered bust proof because there's a super obvious risk.

Also The Undoing Project is a good read, would also recommend.
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Old 02-27-2017, 12:53 AM   #213
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

Also seems to me like Harry Giles should absolutely stay an extra year in college. He's at #19 right now in DraftExpress, and really hasn't shown much this year. Honestly I could see him slipping further.

Betting on himself, he could/should have a much better year next year and get drafted much much higher. He'd also be ducking a loaded top 10 for a weaker top 10 prospects next year.
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Old 02-27-2017, 01:28 AM   #214
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

Yes & no. I mean a quick search looks like the difference between the rookie contracts of the 5th pick & the 19th pick is like $7m over the course of the contract.

If you're really betting on yourself, don't you think you'll make at least $7m in the 1st year after the rookie contract to cover that loss since you'll be earning an extra year?

I think it depends more on where he thinks he'll develop better and/or be happy than whether he thinks his draft stock will improve the next year.

Also, might be better for career to go to a more competent team...although most picks around 19 are probably going to be scrub teams who traded mediocre players for pick & bad contracts, so that argument might be a poor one.
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Old 02-27-2017, 01:47 AM   #215
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

It's not really your first year after the rookie contract that matters. It's the last year of your career and more specifically only the last year in the cases where you retire at the same age if you leave now vs. leaving a year later. If you play the same number of NBA seasons then it's better to go later. Also the salary caps and pay scales will be higher later.

Secondly, the difference in future contracts depends on progression. So if he isn't worth a max after leaving early but is worth one after waiting another year then it very well may be worth waiting.
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Old 02-27-2017, 01:50 AM   #216
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

Another behavioral aspect is that if you're the 19th pick, teams are gonna be somewhat quick to cut you loose if you're not doing well. They don't have as much invested in your success. If you're a top 5 pick, you're going to get a ton of leeway and a lot of forgiveness even if you are horrible at first. Teams are much more invested in you and will let you suck for an extended period of time in the hopes that you'll be good eventually. That's a reason to prefer being top 5 to being 15-20.
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Old 02-27-2017, 02:08 AM   #217
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight View Post
It's not really your first year after the rookie contract that matters. It's the last year of your career and more specifically only the last year in the cases where you retire at the same age if you leave now vs. leaving a year later. If you play the same number of NBA seasons then it's better to go later. Also the salary caps and pay scales will be higher later.

Secondly, the difference in future contracts depends on progression. So if he isn't worth a max after leaving early but is worth one after waiting another year then it very well may be worth waiting.
Yeah, teams never overpay guys because they think they might eventually be good.

I mostly meant in terms of recapture at the same age. But yes, if he has to retire a year earlier because he went pro a year earlier, that would not be helpful for him.

Like I said, the most important thing is where he thinks he'll develop better. If that's college, he should 100% stay.
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Another behavioral aspect is that if you're the 19th pick, teams are gonna be somewhat quick to cut you loose if you're not doing well. They don't have as much invested in your success. If you're a top 5 pick, you're going to get a ton of leeway and a lot of forgiveness even if you are horrible at first. Teams are much more invested in you and will let you suck for an extended period of time in the hopes that you'll be good eventually. That's a reason to prefer being top 5 to being 15-20.
If he's actually betting on himself, that shouldn't be a problem, right? If he's betting against how he'll be as a pro, but on how his stock will increase, he should also definitely stay, but I don't consider that betting on yourself, which I believe was the premise.

Of course, sometimes it can be better for a guy to be scrapped sooner by his original team because he can get somewhere he fits in & can thrive sooner.

I'm not saying it would be stupid to stay, just that there are more variables to consider.
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Old 02-27-2017, 02:32 AM   #218
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight View Post
It's not really your first year after the rookie contract that matters. It's the last year of your career and more specifically only the last year in the cases where you retire at the same age if you leave now vs. leaving a year later. If you play the same number of NBA seasons then it's better to go later. Also the salary caps and pay scales will be higher later.

Secondly, the difference in future contracts depends on progression. So if he isn't worth a max after leaving early but is worth one after waiting another year then it very well may be worth waiting.

please stop, i beg
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Old 02-27-2017, 02:33 AM   #219
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

Do whatever lowers your chances of getting drafted by the kings ldo
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Old 02-27-2017, 08:43 AM   #220
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

markannen's upside seems legit incredible offensively - his shooting seems almost unprecedented for a guy his age/height. 44% for 3 and 84% on fts is pretty outlier good for ncaa freshmen. other offensive talents seem strong too, low tovs, gets some boards, and seems to be able to create well off closeouts with solid handle and ability to finish with both hands, as well as being capable of pulling up too

i mean as much as it's a cliche and unlikely, if you're going to spout hyperbole about someone being the dirk hier, he's as good a prospect as any to come through

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...rkkanen-1.html
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Old 03-03-2017, 04:17 PM   #221
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

hot take: Miles Bridges will be a top 3 player in this draft class

Everytime I watch him I sorta fall in love. Not yet 19 years old he has a beautiful stroke from three and is very likely going to be a sick defender at the next level, already averaging 1.7 blocks per game
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Old 03-06-2017, 12:17 PM   #222
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

Ntilikina has now taken the starting spot in the french league, and his performances have been awesome recently, MVP of the game saturday.

He's a really good PG who understand the game, and can control the tempo/shoot the ball/defend. I'd pick him behind Ball and Fultz
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Old 03-06-2017, 09:57 PM   #223
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

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Ntilikina has now taken the starting spot in the french league, and his performances have been awesome recently, MVP of the game saturday.

He's a really good PG who understand the game, and can control the tempo/shoot the ball/defend. I'd pick him behind Ball and Fultz
I'm rooting for the Knicks to land him.
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Old 03-06-2017, 10:07 PM   #224
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

cosigned
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Old 03-07-2017, 03:26 AM   #225
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Re: NBA Draft 2017

New mock is up on draft express.

Such a sick class. Top 12 looks pretty good to me. I'm sure someone will rise up the board later as well. Obv going to be a couple busts but lots of talent in this draft. First non freshman to go in the mock is J.Jackson.

Tatum is on the rise up to 4 for the first time year. They still have Fultz over Ball guess that might stand will see. Robert Williams is another guy whos on the rise.

Pistons are at 16. Wanted them to lose some games and get into that top 10-12 but doesnt seem like its going to happen.
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