Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
It's not really your first year after the rookie contract that matters. It's the last year of your career and more specifically only the last year in the cases where you retire at the same age if you leave now vs. leaving a year later. If you play the same number of NBA seasons then it's better to go later. Also the salary caps and pay scales will be higher later.
Secondly, the difference in future contracts depends on progression. So if he isn't worth a max after leaving early but is worth one after waiting another year then it very well may be worth waiting.
Yeah, teams never overpay guys because they think they might eventually be good.
I mostly meant in terms of recapture at the same age. But yes, if he has to retire a year earlier because he went pro a year earlier, that would not be helpful for him.
Like I said, the most important thing is where he thinks he'll develop better. If that's college, he should 100% stay.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyOcean_
Another behavioral aspect is that if you're the 19th pick, teams are gonna be somewhat quick to cut you loose if you're not doing well. They don't have as much invested in your success. If you're a top 5 pick, you're going to get a ton of leeway and a lot of forgiveness even if you are horrible at first. Teams are much more invested in you and will let you suck for an extended period of time in the hopes that you'll be good eventually. That's a reason to prefer being top 5 to being 15-20.
If he's actually betting on himself, that shouldn't be a problem, right? If he's betting against how he'll be as a pro, but on how his stock will increase, he should also definitely stay, but I don't consider that betting on yourself, which I believe was the premise.
Of course, sometimes it can be better for a guy to be scrapped sooner by his original team because he can get somewhere he fits in & can thrive sooner.
I'm not saying it would be stupid to stay, just that there are more variables to consider.