He seems like he could be really great if he can play.

Draymond made two 3's in his first two years of college, Millsap made six in his three years, and neither had drastically better FT% than Happ.

Shooting is the most difficult part of the game to predict. Maybe it's not a complete coincidence that the guys who rocked at everything but shooting were the ones that had outlier leaps in their shooting.

And I'm not saying Happ is a fave to become Dray, if he was he would be a top 3 pick. I'm saying there are enough similarities for him to be a snapcall once the lotto studs are off the board, because it's far more likely that he learns to shoot than any of these other turds on the board learn to do this.

Those 2 3s dray made his first two years are as many baskets happ as made outside the paint

So? Dray was more comfortable launching his sucky shot, but it was still sucky.

Here are the players that were drafted before Draymond:

22	BOS	Fab Melo
23	ATL	John Jenkins
24	CLE	Jared Cunningham
25	MEM	Tony Wroten
26	IND	Miles Plumlee
27	MIA	Arnett Moultrie
28	OKC	Perry Jones
29	CHI	Marquis Teague
30	GSW	Festus Ezeli
31	CHA	Jeff Taylor
32	WAS	Tomas Satoransky
33	CLE	Bernard James
34	CLE	Jae Crowder

Here are the players that were drafted before Millsap

31	POR	James White
32	HOU	Steve Novak
33	ATL	Solomon Jones
34	LAC	Paul Davis
35	TOR	P.J. Tucker
36	MIN	Craig Smith
37	MIN	Bobby Jones
38	GSW	Kosta Perovic
39	MIL	David Noel
40	SEA	Denham Brown
41	ORL	James Augustine
42	CLE	Daniel Gibson
43	NOK	Marcus Vinicius
44	ORL	Lior Eliyahu
45	IND	Alexander Johnson

Worst case Happ doesn't shoot a lick and he can't play a lick and he flames out of the league like most of the players that most GM's take ahead of these types anyway.

So it's not bad to comp Happ to Draymond. What's bad is NOT comping Happ to Dray and then taking one of these clowns ahead of him in the late 1st, then watching Happ bink an OKish shot and become a star while you are left with somebody who was drawing dead to be more than a bench player.

And Draymond isn't even a good shooter. He's just average. He wouldn't be a star without being able to space the floor, but he would still be miles better than everybody taken ahead of himself + Sap other than Crowder even if he could not make a single shot outside of the paint for his entire career.

good stuff dean

Ready to catch up on NCAA and draft talk. This thread and Dean write-ups are a good start

while trying to uncover guys that might have gone under the radar I found Markis Mcduffie and Chandler Hutchison.. And then I checked Deans site and he wrote up both of them, so bravo. Both are great athletes who have a clear roles in the league. But are still projects who are growing into there body but I like them both a lot.

Thomas Bryant cost himself a lot of money, don't see how anyone takes him in the first round. He can't guard me. He has a great looking 3 pt shot for a big man, but man DeRon Davis is a better option for IU at this point.

Malik Monk might honestly be the #1 pick

great stuff dean

I don't really follow the draft super-close, but all I know is it's an absolutely loaded draft and NOBODY has an idea what the top-10 will look like now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/04/sp...cle-click&_r=0

Good reading on Ntilikina, I don't think he compares with Exum at all

He has the physical skills, the work ethic, and he's getting more playing time on a professional level as the season progress.

Floor is probably a positive starting PG before the end of his rookie contract

Nice. McDuffie is still super young but is just smoooooth af.

Hutchison is the one who has me really intrigued. He's 6'7 with 7'0 wingspan and is also super smooth. And he's good at everything, except his skill level is still kinda raw. But if he tightens his handle and learns to shoot he is a solid NBA'er, everything is there but the skills that he still has time to learn.

They are definitely my two mid-major sleepers of choice.

Agree. I actually was wondering if Davis is the secretly better prospect. They seem similar except Davis has yet to be proven to be a sieve on defense.

No way. You cannot take him over Fultz everrrrr. And really you can't take him over Lonzo either, although maybe I'm singing a different tune

I think Fultz is going #1 and Ball #2 a decent %. But that's not certain, and after that there are still so many elite freshmen. Literally nobody is a fraud this year.

He compares with Exum in a lot of ways. They are both super tall PG's who are more smooth than explosive.

Yes, Frank has a lot of features that Exum lacks. He could easily be a star and make the comp look silly.

But Exum is also a lesson in getting overhyped for non-elite athlete PG's who have no meaningful sample of elite performance. Frank has outs to be even worse. Overall he sounds better but who really knows. He has more TOVs than assists for his French team and his FIBA stats weren't too great. If his frame never fills out well he will probably get overwhelmed by the monsters he faces in the NBA.

cam oliver seems way too low on all these sites

That's a fair thought. He is a super athletic PF who can shoot, pass, block shots, and is a decent enough rebounder.

I'm just worried that he is ******ed on defense, and in general. Nevada has the #87 block rate (w/ Oliver being responsible for most of them) but only #171 defensive 2P% in NCAA. That's real bad considering Nevada *never* gambles for turnovers, and hasn't played many good offenses outside of Saint Mary's who shredded them.

It's not necessarily all his fault, but that's why I have him round 2. Most of the time he's just a shorter BJ Mullens. The skilled + hyperathletic PF who really excites me is Robert Williams.

Went rewatched a couple UK games including the Louisville game. Dont think its a coincidence that when Monk played a team with NBA length and athleticism for days in Louisville he struggled mightily. Im now more convinced hes a one trick pony running hot.

The Kentucky player whos amazing is DeAaron Fox. He has poor shot selection at times but that probably cpntributes more to his poor shooting than a broken shot since he has a beautiful stroke. Id imagine he finds his way into the top 5 come draft day.

Malik Monk will never stop being hot. He still made 5/8 inside the arc against Lolville, just had a rare cold shooting day from 3. Most 18 y/o's who shoot 42% from 3, 85% FT with lightning fast triggers successfully translate their shooting to the NBA. And you can't just pretend he didn't drop 47 on UNC's top 10 defense.

He is super awesome IMO. 147 ortg on 27.3 usage in 5 conference games so far. He's going to be bad on defense bc he dgaf, but he looks like a transcendent player offensively. He legit might be as good as Steph. Outside of the top 3 I don't see him being a bad time.

But the real player I love in this draft is Lonzo. He is legit one of the smartest basketball players I have ever seen, and I wrote why he deserves the #1 hype

BBallBreakdown thinks Lonzo should go #1. If the Sixers bink #1, he could form a tantalizing duo w/Embiid.

Dedric Lawson outta Memphis is a stud, kid does it all.

Sixers are sitting pretty no matter what. Ball/Embiid would be great as would Fultz/Embiid. Or even if they pick like #5 and #8, they could draft hyperefficient shooters like Monk and Markkanen who would be amazing complementary pieces to Embiid + Simmons. It's exciting time to be a Philly fan. Process set them up good.

Agree, like him lots as a late 1st with potential to rise to late lotto.

Dean, thoughts on SJSU sophomore Brandon Clarke?

His stats are really good, but for a 6'7" mid-major big they aren't outlier enough to imply more than a small probability of success. What does he have on undrafted guys like Jameel Warney or Javon McCrea? He doesn't quite rack up steals and rebs like Millsap.

Dennis Smith jr on ESPNU currently

Monk is amazing; I watched him and Lonzo tear it up in the McDonalds game -- they were playing a level above everyone else in that game, I felt.

Speaking of Lonzo, I think he's the real deal; he just knows how to win and feel he has HUGE potential. With that said, I hope he stays one more year in UCLA. He needs to work on his D and I really just want to see him play with his brother (Liangelo Ball), who will be a freshman next year -- would be epic to witness.

I will get around to reading your recent blog post (you linked), meanwhile, I suggest you check out the thread I made about the Ball Brothers (about a month ago). Pretty cool to see what's happening at Chino Hills.

ETA:
Ball Brothers Thread