Then you're lol

Giles is a gimp with 2 bad knees. He was god awful this year. I wouldn't touch him. Maybe Philly will take him and have him sit out 2 seasons. Honestly, I want him to go as a UNC fan but I think the kid should stay.

CP3 is quite athletic. Like I said, athleticism is more than just how high you can jump. CP3 has immense lateral quickness--enabling him to be a great defender. Lonzo shows promise but currently his skills in this regard need work.

More importantly, CP3 has skills Lonzo doesn't. He's a mega elite ball handler who can dribble by and around defenders to create his own shots and lanes. Kyrie Irving is similar in this regard.

This is not a strength of Lonzo's game. It doesn't mean he can't improve--Steph Curry didn't have a high level of skill in this area at Davidson either and no one would say the same is true today, but there is a reason he was the 7th pick overall and not the 1st.

Lonzo has a high floor and does a lot well--but I see some possible non-strengths (I prefer that term to "weaknesses") where I don't really see any for Fultz.

Lonzo is very quick for his size, he beats defenders off the dribble routinely (and more effectively than Fultz, who doesn't have his Nashian IQ).

Lonzo is a great defender IMO (when accounting for positional versatility + rebounding). Fultz (and anyone outside of Jackson/Isaac in this class) isn't nearly as cognizant wrt off-ball movement as Lonzo (again, lower IQ).

I'll concede that Lonzo's handle isn't mega-elite, but his size/vision allow him to see plays smaller less perceptive guys can't.

UCLA's returning players have seen massive increases in their offensive efficiency with the addition of Lonzo. And, although this shouldn't be overstated, he does seem to make plays in high leverage spots. Somebody said in games within one score he's 50% from 3; SSS but interesting nonetheless.

How much you wanna bet he doesn't go top 15?

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CP prior to multiple knee surgeries was plenty athletic.

CP3 is a better athlete than Lonzo, but Lonzo's tools are overall better bc his 6" height advantage is more significant than CP3's speed/athleticism advantage

an ok recent physical comp i can think of for lonzo is michael carter williams, similar dimensions/weight and to me, similar athletic profile (lonzo maybe slightly worse overall imo)

beyond pure physical ability the comp has little merit, but worth mentioning imo because the only reason anyone thought mcw had potential was his athleticism/size for a pg

(coincidentally mcw's biggest weakness at nba level is likely to be lonzo's too, lack of pullup shooting skill)

Agree to disagree I guess.

Yeah he's my dream guy for Denver. Looks like he has just enough offensively and the tools/skills to be great on defense.

Maybe this draft is good in the top 10 that an elite role-player slides because there more superstar-upside guys than usual?

that's possibly the case with isaac sliding, i think some players are incorrectly assigned too much superstar upside while others get pegged as role players too soon

to me the guys with some realistic superstar upside this year are fultz, lonzo, jackson, and markannen - each of those guys has some combo of physical superiority combined with rare skillset where i can plausibly envision them developing into a top 10 type player, and even then it's not likely. not seeing it with the rest of these dudes

after that i think teams should prioritsing more median outcomes because the superstar upside is so remote

I definitely agree with those being the top 4 prospects, and Isaac is my #5. He won't be a traditional superstar, but he could be a lowkey stud role player like Kirilenko. I'd say he has a bit of top 10 potential.

Lonzo's off the dribble shooting #'s are insanely good. In terms of pts/possession he is #5 of 1226 for all of D1 as per synergy, and lots of his shots are bombs from NBA range.

That's surprising wrt off the dribble shots given his mechanics. His usage is pretty low though, how many shots are we talking?

Not a huge sample-- about 40 attempts. But still hard to call it a weakness after all that.

lakers are keen to this idea, they've had russell playing off ball this week. they are clearly trying a lot of different things to do with him to see what his future looks like with lonzo. you might very well be right.

dean,

if you think monk is downtrending, who do you think sixers should pick if they get 3rd?

i'd nit this and say pullup shooting is diff to off the dribble. but overall yeah true on the made point, but i think it's fair to say his lack of midrange game + weird quirks in when he can/can't shoot might cause some problems for him. that said, guys like rubio are solid pnr guys without being a serious threat to pullup or finish

also probably understates how how much mcw's issues could be solved if he could space + was not dumb. i personally don't buy lonzo as a 40% 3pt shooter in the nba but he doesn't have to be to be a credible threat

Whoever is left out of Jackson/Fultz/Lonzo. Seems like it'll be Josh Jackson, Sixers are desperate for guard/wing creation and someone in that position who has a high ceiling as a scorer. Most of their struggles in late game scenarios are a result of not having guys who can reliably create a good shot for themselves and a lack of viable late clock bail out options when possessions break down. Embiid might be dead and I'm not sure Simmons is going to be that late game shot taking guy.

there are 4 lottery picks this year who are strangely bad at fts given their other shooting stats:

	Fultz	Ball	Jackson	Bridges
ft%	64.90%	67.70%	56.70%	68.50%
% shots 2p j	45.80%	7.80%	36.80%	23.40%
2pt j %	43.80%	46.20%	38.70%	40.00%
% assisted 2p j	12.50%	8.30%	19.00%	41.20%
% shots 3p j	28.70%	56.50%	20.30%	39.60%
3pt j %	41.30%	42.00%	38.60%	38.90%
% assisted 3p j	55.80%	73.40%	84.40%	87.50%

a few theories here imo:
a) variance
b) they are all frauds
c) some of them are frauds
d) kids these days don't practice fundamentals like fts
e) ???

Jackson v. Fultz. Who's got the higher floor/median projection/ceiling (and what are they)?Are there any teams in the lottery where one is strongly preferable to the other?

I'm a Jackson fan, but he's kinda old and not sure he will ever be a #1 scoring option, but it's not difficult to see him as a loser ppg version of Butler/George with better passing.

hard to say, I think all 4 could be getting a little lucky from three, I have written multiple times how I don't fully buy Balls shooting #s, he wasnt a good shooter 2 years ago.

Combo of A/C/E.

The chart above (namely % shots 2 pt j) is another indication of Lonzo's elite BBIQ.

It's some combination of variance in FT shooting, variance in 3PT shooting, and that there's no 1:1 correlation between the two.

pretty sad state of affairs if not jacking long 2s = ELITE BBIQ

I wouldn't have thought so either, and yet here we are.

But in all seriousness, coupled with all the other visual and statistical data, it is a truly great sign that a player of his talent GETS IT to such a high degree.