No he's gonna be great.

anybody want to do a time capsule thing where people make BOLD predictions and we can bump this in a few years to see if anybody is better than GM's? my rankings were kinda all over the place but i will lay out my specific predictions in a bit

Bennett- bust
Home Dipo- all-star
Porter- nba starter
Zeller- 6th man for a good nba team
Len- out if the league in 3 years
Noel- Deandre Jordan
Mclemore- nba starter
Pope- fringe all star
Burke- best player from this draft
Kelly- Ryan Anderson

Oladipo will have the most career playoff win shares

Bennett won't be as bad as everyone thinks but he'll always be labeled a huge bust. Might randomly help his third or fourth team.

Cody Zeller is actually very solid.

Otto Porter actually ends up completely sucking and the high floor, low ceiling thing turns out to be false.

BAZZY multiple AS games and the Rubio/Bazzy/Love/Pek era makes deep playoff runs.

Jamaal Franklin plays >20k career minutes.

basically the opposite of everything darO just said will happen

especially lol'd at the Olynyk/Randerson comparison. Olynyk is water trash.

Trey will get the most ass, even in Utah. Evidence:

woah, that's a quality ass

first of all, i think the top 13 picks are pretty much all that matter

1. Nerlens- I'm going on record as saying that I think his slipping was a combo of cowardice, shadiness, and general fear that he's injury prone moreso than his knee being in seriously bad condition. There's some non-zero chance that he's often getting hurt or teams can't handle his personality, but he quite clearly has the most upside and I snap him #1. I think he'll be good.

2. Burke- I think the 29% stat being guarded by guys > 6'1 is stupid. First it's prob a SSS bc his overall stats are slick, second it's prob bad selection bias since teams will mostly put a wing on him if he's a huge D stopper like oladipo. He's the same height and has a greater wingspan than CP3, it seems really unlikely that he's the one perimeter player who doesn't translate due to being a CH undersized. I think he's likely to be a good offensive pro and has equity to be a top 5 PG itl.

3. Oladipo- I have been tossing him/Len/Porter in various orders all draft and I decided to stick him #3 because he seems so so highly sought after and I think he has the highest floor of that trio. I do feel that his offensive game is overrated and there are translation concerns since his 3 pt shooting was only good in a super small sample and his TOV rate was higher than senior Tony Allen's, don't think he can do much more creation than straight line drives. But he has a pretty solid shot of becoming at least a neutral offensively and a top 5 wing defender so it's hard to hate too much. He's a lock to become a useful player.

4. Alex Len- Don't think he has an inordinately high bust rate but he is kind of boom or bust. He does need to develop a decent bit and the foot injury has to be a minor concern, even in Phoenix. But it's hard to not like his ability to be a beast mode rim protector as well as a competent post player on the other end.

5. Otto Porter- agree with TuT that I don't buy that he's a lock to be a good starter. I'm really not sure what to think of him. He'll probably be decent w/ his length and BBIQ but wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't.

6. KCP- He's going to be ****ing awesome. Buckets all day, all long. He's already so good off the bounce, I think his catch and shoot game will catch up and he'll prob be a pretty solid defender too. He'll be > McLemore ~ 97% of the time.

7. Bennett- Maybe he sucks, maybe he becomes decent. Who knows. But I highly doubt the Cavs ever get the last laugh by getting credited with the correct pick here.

8. McCollum- Seems like he'll be a decent but not great offensive piece, so hopefully he's not a sieve on D I guess.

9. Cody- Depends on his 3 point shooting ability. Could be a pretty cool stretch 4, but if not he'll prob suck just a bit less than Tyler.

10. McLemore- Pretty sure this guy is a fraud and will owe Bill Self a parade for getting him picked 7th overall when all is said and done.

11. Steve Adams- I think he'll be a solid pro. Good D meh O. Likely better than Perk already.

12. Olynyk- I think he has a wide range from complete bust to top 50ish player who is a nifty weapon on offense and not a complete sieve on D.

13. MCW- Mehhhhhh. With all of the PG depth in the league I have a hard time see him cracking the top 10 ever. He could be good on D but doesn't bring anything on the other end other than boring passes and bad outside shots. He'll prob either bust or become a cancer.

After that the euros seem to have the most upside to be the steal of the draft. Think most of them will end up sucking though. KARASEV is prob my fave but I'm really unconfident on my euro analysis.

I think the most likely solid rotation players outside the lotto are Bullock + Rice, both great value picks. Kinda like Roberson too.

1st round spew: Bazzy, Snell, Hill, THJ, Plumlee. If Bazzy sticks around the league it will prob be in a cancerous way.

Dieng will start on a playoff team. He'll have a better career than Noel.

BOLD PREDICTION on Otto Porter, Dean.

Jesus.

sorry for not having something bold on every lotto player. at least i didn't make any completely ******ed predictions like dieng > nerlens.

Dieng's obviously less talented than Nerlens, but he's got a very solid skill set and should translate well to NBA ball: he's long, strong, and smart. KNEElens is going to have problems developing skills IMO. We shall see.

Olynyk's peak is Noah, right?

Obviously the times that Nerlens is better than Dieng he's a lot better, I'm just hypothesizing that Dieng > Noel more than 50% of the time.

prediction:

bazzy and bennett are frontrunners for ROY

from the little i know, i don't think that's a very good comparison. Noah seems pretty long and athletic, which Olynyk isn't really. they both seem to work really hard tho, Olynyk is a better shooter afaik.

if he can expand his range to the 3pt line i think KO could stick in the league for a while, as a big who can stretch the floor a little, if only off the bench.

I only watched him during the tourney so Idk. He seemed very Noah-ish in his play style from the little I saw. Maybe it's the hair

Noah in college was an absolute monster. He'd outrun opponents' guards in transition.

from what ive seen and heard, olynyk is a huge huge dog to be the type of defender/paint protector noah is. Probably not the best comparison imo.

Its def the hair. Not a more accurate nba comp for kelly than watered down dirk.

Noah's jump shot comes out sideways, pretty sure that alone ruins any comparison to Olynyk.

No love for Giannis jeeeez

Bennett ROY

happy to bet on this, think you're super wrong

So I should be happy the Pistons took KCP? Of all our possible options, I knew the least about him.