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MOTHER****ING GOD ****ING WHAT THE **** (lol Browns!) MOTHER****ING GOD ****ING WHAT THE **** (lol Browns!)

10-24-2017 , 08:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich
I think this is incorrect because EV wise you have to take a QB in round 1 if the evaluation warrants it. 2's/3's and lower are much worse EV picks than rd 1 generally at the position.

The watson pick was from the wentz trade. So now they've got the texans pick next year for all of that. They better hope it's a middling pick and not a late one or lol them again.

The EV charts have to be adjusted against the guy trading down when scouting reports warrant it which is a mistake that 2p2 makes in evaluating those trades.

They've traded down for picks since 2009. It doesn't work like you all think it should.

Seems like you are being super results oriented wrt Watson. Clearly the Browns didn't think the evaluation warranted a 1st round pick for Watson and neither did multiple other QB needy teams including 2 teams that drafted other QBs ahead of Watson. Draft pundits seemed to agree, every draft grade list I can find rates the Texans pick as bad to terrible. Picking a round 2/3 rated guy in round 1 doesn't magically increase his odds of success just because he went in round 1.
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10-24-2017 , 09:36 AM
If you're the Browns your "evaluation" needs to factor in that no one you draft will ever achieve more than about 15% of their potential, because you are the worst sports franchise on the globe. It therefore does not matter who you take, because no one you take will ever be good. Your evaluation, therefore, also does not really matter.

I'm not, actually, joking.
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10-24-2017 , 09:52 AM
It's kind of the fatal flaw in the "tank to get your QB of the future" argument. Sooner or later the rest of the roster has to be good enough to win some games on its own, or that QB won't be worth very much when you get him.
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10-24-2017 , 12:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cannabusto

I watch the Browns play, but my emotions are not invested, like with my other teams.

yep. that's exactly me.

I make it usually towards the middle/end of september (EVERY YEAR. no really, EVERY YEAR) before I'm annoyed when they win a game they shouldn't have.

I don't want to go 0-16, but why should I ever want 4-12 over 2-14? unless it's the steelers, and even then I don't really care unless it was week 17 and we could prevent them from making the playoffs or something...

Quote:
Originally Posted by manbearpuig
As a local I would be so happy if they contracted the Browns.

let's not talk stupid tho...
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10-24-2017 , 12:26 PM
Just going by the eye test Jackson seems too slender to hold up. Just seems like one of those guys that is too lean with too narrow a waist/torso to hold up, especially given his penchant for running, a la griffin.
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10-25-2017 , 04:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NLSoldier
Seems like you are being super results oriented wrt Watson. Clearly the Browns didn't think the evaluation warranted a 1st round pick for Watson and neither did multiple other QB needy teams including 2 teams that drafted other QBs ahead of Watson. Draft pundits seemed to agree, every draft grade list I can find rates the Texans pick as bad to terrible. Picking a round 2/3 rated guy in round 1 doesn't magically increase his odds of success just because he went in round 1.
Well I do think a lot of those evaluations of Watson were bad because he didn't fit the prototype, or he was nitpicked for absurd reasons. But that's always going to happen in the NFL. A 6'4" white guy with a big arm is always going to be valued even if he can't hit anyone with accuracy, process football at game speed, or make plays when the play breaks down. I had my concerns particularly as regards his INT level but he just has too many positives and does too many things well.
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10-25-2017 , 09:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich
I think this is incorrect because EV wise you have to take a QB in round 1 if the evaluation warrants it. 2's/3's and lower are much worse EV picks than rd 1 generally at the position.
Not only this but I believe your future Free Agent EV significantly increases when you draft or acquire a top QB which attracts FA's to your market. Especially at the offensive skill positions and especially in a destination such as Cleveland.

Places such as Cleveland, Buffalo, Indianapolis, etc aren't exactly dream destinations for most FA's and if you top it off with having an organization with a journeyman at QB who is going to really want or choose to go play there?
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10-25-2017 , 09:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NLSoldier
of all the reasons to lol browns you guys are picking two decisions that were almost certainly +EV at the time. sad.
The wentz trade was +EV

Watson trade definitely not. In terms of pick value maybe (thinly +EV at best), but their qb depth chart at the time is Bork Kessler hogan, their owner is a short sighted trigger happy ****face and nobody is safe if the season is punted even if the process is good

Best case scenario they're now betting their jobs on the qb that goes #1 and the new coach they bring in after Jackson is fired which makes all the pick accumulation they've done to this point pretty irrelevant

The people making the ultimate decisions aren't exactly forward thinking individuals
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10-25-2017 , 10:01 AM

Incredible
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10-25-2017 , 10:04 AM
whats the opposite of undefeated. defeated?

the defeated browns are coming to london this weekend

does anyone mind if i recycle that joke about the govt allowing too many unskilled foreign workers into the country
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10-25-2017 , 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BOIDS
whats the opposite of undefeated. defeated?

the defeated browns are coming to london this weekend

does anyone mind if i recycle that joke about the govt allowing too many unskilled foreign workers into the country
so you're saying you hate brown people
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10-25-2017 , 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BOIDS
whats the opposite of undefeated. defeated?

the defeated browns are coming to london this weekend

does anyone mind if i recycle that joke about the govt allowing too many unskilled foreign workers into the country
Sure why not, I mean "recycling jokes" is a summary of the Browns' strategy at the quarterback position.
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10-25-2017 , 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StoppedRainingMen
Watson trade definitely not. In terms of pick value maybe (thinly +EV at best)

The people making the ultimate decisions aren't exactly forward thinking individuals
I get this is the LOL Browns thread but nitpicking that they traded down for from #12 to #25 and netting a future 1st while not hating on half of these other non-QB selections is ridiculous.

Right now Garrett and Lattimore look like studs.
Thomas, Fournette, and Adams have been good-great(?). But we're talking winless 49ers passing on QB cuz they getting Kirk next offseason - that works. What's the Jags plan?? Jets plan??

Even tho Fournette has been great I think that pick was terrible (see Cook, Hunt, Kamara, Packers undrafted rook) that cost 5-100x less salary & draft capital.

The Rookie WRs haven't done much yet, obv MW been injured. I liked Davis but idk and John Ross pick looks pretty terrible.

McCaffrey - see Fournette reasoning then take away the great RB part.

Browns suck but they're doing something right. Keep trading down, turn one 1st rounder into two, into three, etc. Keep letting them breed. Maybe they do suck at picking players but the draft capital acquisition is clearly smart.

Last edited by BillNye; 10-25-2017 at 06:05 PM.
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10-25-2017 , 06:41 PM
The way the Browns evaluate talent, acquiring more picks is just acquiring more times to fail, not more chances to succeed.
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10-25-2017 , 06:47 PM
Browns staff probably figures that the draft is basically dart throwing so the more picks you have the better the chance that one player somewhere will be successful.

I'd like to start seeing teams in need of a QB pick more than one QB in a draft in case one busts you have another that might not.
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10-25-2017 , 07:19 PM
I think most everyone agrees in principle with the stockpiling picks approach. But their player evaluation is so bad they would literally be better off drafting Mel Kiper's best available or pulling names out of a hat.
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10-25-2017 , 10:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman
I think most everyone agrees in principle with the stockpiling picks approach. But their player evaluation is so bad they would literally be better off drafting Mel Kiper's best available or pulling names out of a hat.
I like how your post implies that those two options are equally bad. I lol'd
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10-25-2017 , 10:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillNye
I get this is the LOL Browns thread but nitpicking that they traded down for from #12 to #25 and netting a future 1st while not hating on half of these other non-QB selections is ridiculous.

Right now Garrett and Lattimore look like studs.
Thomas, Fournette, and Adams have been good-great(?). But we're talking winless 49ers passing on QB cuz they getting Kirk next offseason - that works. What's the Jags plan?? Jets plan??

Even tho Fournette has been great I think that pick was terrible (see Cook, Hunt, Kamara, Packers undrafted rook) that cost 5-100x less salary & draft capital.

The Rookie WRs haven't done much yet, obv MW been injured. I liked Davis but idk and John Ross pick looks pretty terrible.

McCaffrey - see Fournette reasoning then take away the great RB part.

Browns suck but they're doing something right. Keep trading down, turn one 1st rounder into two, into three, etc. Keep letting them breed. Maybe they do suck at picking players but the draft capital acquisition is clearly smart.
If you have job security it's obviously smart. But they're now going to be (assuming they get to keep their jobs after this disaster of a season) forced to take a qb at 1 where there isn't a slam dunk option and their jobs will almost certainly depend on the success of that single decision

Squeezing every last bit of trade equity and not at least rostering capable qb options to avoid literally this exact situation isn't exactly prudent
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10-26-2017 , 01:03 AM
no risk it, no biscuit.

I can't talk, however, I'm about to suffer through the Trubisky era.
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10-29-2017 , 12:25 PM
Solid loss today. Gotta keep that momentum going. If we manage the draft correctly, I think we can turn the first overall pick into 4 horrible players this year and 6 more picks to select additional horrible players next year.
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10-29-2017 , 12:38 PM
We're going to vacuum up every bust out there. Yw, league.
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10-30-2017 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillNye
Even tho Fournette has been great I think that pick was terrible (see Cook, Hunt, Kamara, Packers undrafted rook) that cost 5-100x less salary & draft capital.
<pedant>the Packers drafted three RBs-- Jamaal Williams in the fourth, Aaron Jones in the fifth, and Devante Mays in the seventh.</pedant>

Quote:
Originally Posted by five4suited
I can't talk, however, I'm about to suffer through the Trubisky era.
Trubisky has some skills that are promising for his NFL future; however, it remains LOL that a guy who couldn't beat out Marquise Williams (and led the team to a worse record when he finally started) is the #2 overall pick while a guy who started three seasons, making two national championship games, and winning one, was the third QB off and went to a coaching staff that was clearly not very excited about what they apparently thought was a necessary gamble to save their jobs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperUberBob
I like how your post implies that those two options are equally bad. I lol'd
Yeah, go with the hat for sure. Less likely to end up with Josh Allen in the top five.
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10-31-2017 , 05:25 PM
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10-31-2017 , 05:26 PM
of course lol
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10-31-2017 , 05:26 PM
amazing
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