Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack of Arcades
Just my theory, so I could be completely off. However, consider the average fg% on 2pt shots this year was .485, while the average fg% on 3pters was .362. A 50% shot is an above average one while a 33% shot is a below average one. This isn't a matter of pure pts/shot but of opportunity cost. In all likelihood, a 33% 3 pt shot isn't going to be the best shot on the floor. Sure, sometimes you need to jack one up, but unless you can be at least an average 3p shooter, taking more than a frew is probably a mistake.
No, what this likely means (my conclusion) is teams don't shoot
enough 3s. You can't credit anyone for doing what's in their best interest. (See: Baseball) Players may not know that a 36% 3pt shot is better then a 49% 2 pt shot, which could explain why so many 49% 2pts are taken rather then a 36% 3.
It's like in pickup, my one peeve is when people take long 2s. (Esp when we credit a 3 worth 2 and a 2 worth 1) - Like, run the EV calcs, it's laughable. I take more 3s then I "should" only because my EFG% is soooo high given the added ratio