Quote:
Originally Posted by .Alex.
I kept asking this question when (iirc) Chris Paul and Kevin Durant were drafted and no one really gave me a legitimate answer either. People just fall back on injuries and "well, he's not proven" instead of actually thinking about the expected career path of a young player.
exactly. And while there are a few cases of where a player showed tremendous potential and didn't fulfill it, almost all of them are either headcases, got injured, or really weren't that good(putting up high PPG on really low efficiency for example).
Now could TY turn out to be injury prone? Sure. However, how much are you going to penalize him for maybe the 5% chance that he turns out to be injury prone?
Could he turn out to be a headcase? Eh, he was a 4.0 GPA in college, so I kinda doubt that. But sure, maybe a 0.1% shot at him turning into a JR Rider.
But while there are these small chances of this happening, the great majority of the time players who come into the league at 19 and play well will continue to improve during their first few years before hitting their prime around maybe age 23 or so and then having a 5-6 year peak before falling off.
TY put up 8 points on 57% TS. During the 2nd half of the season it improved to 11 points on 59.5% TS, so hes making improvments.
I think its much more likely that he continues to improve these next few years than him suddenly falling off. And even with only marginal improvments, that'd make him a very good pick at this point imo.