Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack of Arcades
Would you say Kobe has significantly improved from his age 22 season? In fact, his age 22 season is pretty similar to last season, when he was MVP.
Would you say KG significantly improved from his age 23 season? He went from being a 20/11 guy to a 22/12 guy in his MVP year.
Lebron? Well, you know, he's 23. So we don't know yet.
Jermaine O'Neal? JO wasn't a great player until he was 27, so this really isn't that prudent of a comparison.
I'm not saying Dwight Howard won't improve. He has a chance to get a little better, if only because he'll shoot more. Maybe his FT% goes up a little. However, I'm questioning the idea that he is undoubtedly going to improve. I'm also really questioning the idea that he could take a big jump. If Dwight Howard takes a "big jump" and lasts until he's 35, he's going to be hands down the best player of this generation.
IMO, if the consensus is that he's going to continue to get better and stay healthy, he should have been a top 10 pick.
I would definitley say Kobe has improved since his age 22 season. I think he is a much better shooter now (although this is downplayed by the fact that he has taken many thougher shots in the past few years than he did playing on a team with Shaq in his prime who would always draw a double) FWIW I detest Kobe so hate saying that, but I think he went from being a potent offense player to a top 5 or 6 offensive player in the history of the NBA.
I wouldn't say that KG "improved significantly" since the age of 22, but i feel that his performance is somewhere between the same level or a slightly higher one. Perhaps we have definitions of peak... I think of it as the best someone will play throughout their career and thus the suggestion that Dwight has "peaked" would mean to me that this will bascially his best season ever, not that he will probably maintain his current level of performance or only improve on it slightly.
I should also say that I see where you are coming from in that he isn't going magically develop a decent mid range and back to the basket game out of thin air, and he may never be proficient in either of these catergories. The two main things I am trying to convey are
1.) Individually, Howard has been putting up these numbers due to freakish athleticism and being dominant on the offensive glass and around the hoop. He certainley has the build and athletism to become more adept in these areas... hell even shaq added a decent enough baby hook and 8-10 turnaround shot in the post in the late 90's and early 2000's.
2.) Players who enter the league out of high school are more likely to peak later and/or sustain their peaks for extended periods of time. Their learning curve is ahead of people their age, but behind people with the same number of years of experience in the NBA.
Dwight isn't guarenteed to improve signficantly, but I think there is a very reasonable chance he will improve measurabley from this point in his career. All the points/variables you have brought up are legitimate, we just disagree about how relevant they are to Dwight.