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Old 06-28-2008, 06:10 PM   #14201
tbach24
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

neither are centers that will win you championships though

oh wait lolssssssssssssssss
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Old 06-28-2008, 06:13 PM   #14202
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

I'm trying to learn how to play STDs right now so I'll do a writeup later on Gugliotta. Just some quick thoughts:

1. I have a lot of different lineups I can throw at you, including a Hill-Durant-Posey-Gugliotta-Kemp one that would ruuuuuun.
2. I like Gugliotta because my announcers will say "great googly moogly" after any nice play from Googs.
3. Gugliotta isn't amazing, but he does a lot of things well for a big man, including passing and creating turnovers, two things I value highly for my team. Also, he's not a great shooter, but you gotta respect the j.
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Old 06-28-2008, 06:15 PM   #14203
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by kidcolin View Post
i was kind of tempted to pick Kittles way back when. He was a nice defensive member of those NJ teams.
I really like Kittles as a player irl, but not for this draft b/c his Age 24 season is really bad (TS% of 44%!) and his career is just so short.

As for Gilliam v. Perkins, Perkins is a better defender for sure, but I remember Gilliam being a solid team defender and played the post well.

But Gilliam >>>>>>>> Perkins on offense - from ages 24-33 his numbers are 14/7 or 17.5/8.8 per 36 (peak at 17/8, 20/10 per36), with a TS% of 55% (peak of 57.7%). I know Perkins can be efficient in his role, but I think he ever approaches Gilliam's numbers. Also, Gilliam was not a foulbox, unlike Perk.

Also, super sick longevity from Gilliam, only 30 missed games from 24-33.

D
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Old 06-28-2008, 06:35 PM   #14204
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by BobboFitos View Post
Incorrect. Let's break it down several ways. We'll go by roughly when we get them in the league (for Perkins, this past year, which inarguably favors him since this year he was head and shoulders better than his previous years, for Haywood, his season @24) their body of work (so we can see what they have accomplished in real NBA minutes) and finally by established peaks, so Perkins "best" vs Haywoods "best". Also, before going into stats, lets also knock out several myths: (Bolded parts above)

MYTH 1 - Haywood has peaked whereas Perkins has not. This is true for Haywood; it's tough to say he's going to get any better, especially since last year he was a true hidden gem on the Wizards. For Perkins, is there truly any room for him to get better? If he was a college player, I would agree, but next year will be his 6th year in the league. Most HS players peak younger due to "learning curve cap," so it's tough to say Perkins can truly get any better then what he was last year. (Although he certainly should maintain it for a while - likely 24-29 he'll put up similar seasons)
MYTH 2 - Haywood has been incredibly durable in his career. His rookie year he did not play every game because of DNP:CD. He then played 81, 77, 68, 79, 77, 80. For a 7 footer this is very impressive. Perkins, although younger, is still fairly durable, but not to the extent of Haywood. Since you can discount his rookie year (10 games played) he has averaged 69.5 games. Not bad. (vs 77 a year for Haywood, which is extraordinary)
MYTH 3 - The stats below will address this.
MYTH 4 - This is essentially repeating your 2nd paragraph, and again, stats will dispute this.

"First" Hypothetical Season
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...wobr01&y2=2004
Essentially neither played major minutes, both are better suited towards being the 4th man in a 4 man rotation, or splitting time with a center who can only play ~28 mins a game. In their playtime though, they both are about as efficient on offense (110 ORtg vs 110 ORtg, .547 on 17% vs .631 on 13.5%) with Haywood drawing more fouls (5.7 vs 3.4) and delving out fewer (3.7 vs 4.6). Rebound-wise, you're right, they're equals: 14.6% vs 14.8%, with Haywood being the better offensive rebounder and Perk the better defensive rebounder. Neither is a good passer, but Perk is more of a liability with turning the ball over; .5 more TOPG (14% vs 22.5%). Defensively, Haywood brings you about average bigman 1on1 defense (104 DRtg) whereas Perkins brings you exceptional bigman 1on1 defense. (97 DRtg) Help-wise, they're about the same, 4.9 to 4.9 BLK%. Essentially, if we just use these splits, Haywood is better vs a team that doesn't have a particularly good big since he can do more damage offensively and isn't as much of a help defensively 1on1. In fact, using just this trial, I'd feel in this league Perk has more value. (Worth noting, PER wise Haywood crushes Perk)

"Full Body" Hypothetical Season
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...wobr01&y2=2008
Best split now is to use per 36, because per game would favor Haywood since he played about 5 mins per game more than Perk. (Which technically benefits him) Looking at relevant categories, I'm not even sure how it's close: Haywood 15.4 PER vs 12.0. .564 TS vs .566 TS, on 14.8% vs 13.8%. You would THINK this means they are identical offensively, but no! This is not the case: Haywood's ORtg career wise is 114 (fantastic) whereas Perk is 101 (bad), and this is due to ORB and TO - Haywood grabs 1 more Oreb more per game and commits 1 fewer TO per game. (This means Haywood is essentially 2 possessions per game "better" than Perk)
Defensively, Perk shows he's been exceptional 1on1 his entire career whereas Haywood has been at-best mediocre (106 vs 101 DRtg), but the helpside def is pretty identical (2.2 bpg vs 2.4) but Perk does give up an extra foul per game (4.1 vs 5.1). *Jumping back to offense, Haywood draws more fouls than Perk - 1.5 FTA more per game...

"Best vs Best" Hypothetical Season
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...wobr01&y2=2008
This split is likely the best because players got similar MPG so we can look at bulk stats.
Offense... Clear win for Haywood, as he shot .582 on 17.3 USG for 119 ORtg. 10.6 ppg, 3.7 FTA, 3.4 ORB, only 1.4 TOV. Compare this to .631 on 13.5 USG for 110 ORtg. 6.9 ppg, 2.3 FTA, 1.9 ORB, and 1.6 TOV.
Defense... Clear win for Perkins, as he garnered the said 97 DRtg, 2.1 bpg, and 4.6 pfpg. Also was a slightly better defensive rebounder, getting 4.2 DRB. Haywood got a poor 109 DRtg (Bogut territory) weakside def resulted in 2.1 bpg but only 3.5 pfpg. He got 3.8 DRB.

Other stats wise, Haywood put up a 18.3 PER vs 13.3 PER, both got 7.0 WSAA.

Meh, I've typed out alot so I'm going to finish posting it, but I think in conclusion saying either is better is sorta dumb, it depends on your team. Perks gives you more defense, Haywood gives you more offense, similar rebounding, Haywood gives you better intangibles (durability and minutes) but the question is can Perk get better? Also, you say that the difference in Perks offense is much greater than the difference between their offense, and I'm not sure I agree.
I see your points but I still think Perk is more valueable in the NBA and even more so in this league because of defense. Haywood while better on offense, isn't going to score a ton. In other words, hes going to be at best a 3rd option, and mostly a 4th/5th. Perkins won't score as well (heck I will never feed him the ball in the post, and the Celtics if they were smart (Doc is dumb so he does) wouldn't either). Basacally it comes down to imo who can finish better at the rim, and they are both pretty much the same. While you are giving the ball to Haywood in the post, I will be running my offense through McHale/Billups/Martin/Deng and all of those guys are much better than Haywood. The only time Perkins will get the ball is on offensive rebounds and wide open dunks.

And very good/great defense (you also left out pick and roll defense, and Perkins is one of the best in the league at this) and horrible offense (which is negated since I won't be giving him the ball, and he isn't an offensive liability since he plays close to the basket and if his man leaves him he can dunk the ball) is better/more valueable than slightly below average offense and average/slightly above average defense (Haywood).
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Old 06-28-2008, 06:38 PM   #14205
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by D104 View Post
I really like Kittles as a player irl, but not for this draft b/c his Age 24 season is really bad (TS% of 44%!) and his career is just so short.

As for Gilliam v. Perkins, Perkins is a better defender for sure, but I remember Gilliam being a solid team defender and played the post well.

But Gilliam >>>>>>>> Perkins on offense - from ages 24-33 his numbers are 14/7 or 17.5/8.8 per 36 (peak at 17/8, 20/10 per36), with a TS% of 55% (peak of 57.7%). I know Perkins can be efficient in his role, but I think he ever approaches Gilliam's numbers. Also, Gilliam was not a foulbox, unlike Perk.

Also, super sick longevity from Gilliam, only 30 missed games from 24-33.

D
Of course Gilliam is better than Perkins, but this is not a yahoo fantasy basketball league. Also Gilliam won't be putting up those type of #'s as there are many more offensive options in this league, so his offense is less valueable than it is on a team with 1-2 offensive threats.

It came down to fit and Perkins fits my team better than Gilliam. I needed a bigman who can guard the best PF/C on the other team. McHale is a great defender, and he will guard them sometimes (especially at the end of games if he isn't in foul trouble), but Perkins will have to do the majority of it since I don't want McHale getting into foul trouble. I can't see Gilliam or Haywood guarding the elite PF/C's in this league and even doing a decent job, where as Perkins has shown that he can.

Also I think it's hilarious that my Perkins pick has gotten such hate (who went in the 7th round mind you), yet Dalembert who went in the early 4th round got very little compared to Perkins. Perkins >>> Dalembert valuewise on where they went in the draft.
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Old 06-28-2008, 06:40 PM   #14206
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I see your points but I still think Perk is more valueable in the NBA and even more so in this league because of defense. Haywood while better on offense, isn't going to score a ton. In other words, hes going to be at best a 3rd option, and mostly a 4th/5th. Perkins won't score as well (heck I will never feed him the ball in the post, and the Celtics if they were smart (Doc is dumb so he does) wouldn't either). Basacally it comes down to imo who can finish better at the rim, and they are both pretty much the same. While you are giving the ball to Haywood in the post, I will be running my offense through McHale/Billups/Martin/Deng and all of those guys are much better than Haywood. The only time Perkins will get the ball is on offensive rebounds and wide open dunks.

And very good/great defense (you also left out pick and roll defense, and Perkins is one of the best in the league at this) and horrible offense (which is negated since I won't be giving him the ball, and he isn't an offensive liability since he plays close to the basket and if his man leaves him he can dunk the ball) is better/more valueable than slightly below average offense and average/slightly above average defense (Haywood).
Basically my conclusion was that Perk may actually be better, but the difference is wicked negligible in their cases.
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Old 06-28-2008, 06:42 PM   #14207
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Bobbo, one thing that you didn't even mention though is that Perk had a huge jump in productivity this year with great players around him. EpiPen has been trying to make it out as if that was a normal progression, but looking at the stats its clear that its in large part due to his teamates around him, as you don't slowly get better for years and then make one huge jump usually.

Based upon this, I agree with you(and disagree with EpiPen) about Perkins not improving anymore.
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Old 06-28-2008, 06:44 PM   #14208
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I see your points but I still think Perk is more valueable in the NBA and even more so in this league because of defense. Haywood while better on offense, isn't going to score a ton. In other words, hes going to be at best a 3rd option, and mostly a 4th/5th. Perkins won't score as well (heck I will never feed him the ball in the post, and the Celtics if they were smart (Doc is dumb so he does) wouldn't either). Basacally it comes down to imo who can finish better at the rim, and they are both pretty much the same. While you are giving the ball to Haywood in the post, I will be running my offense through McHale/Billups/Martin/Deng and all of those guys are much better than Haywood. The only time Perkins will get the ball is on offensive rebounds and wide open dunks.

And very good/great defense (you also left out pick and roll defense, and Perkins is one of the best in the league at this) and horrible offense (which is negated since I won't be giving him the ball, and he isn't an offensive liability since he plays close to the basket and if his man leaves him he can dunk the ball) is better/more valueable than slightly below average offense and average/slightly above average defense (Haywood).
I do agree with this point about the value of offense and defense with these picks though.

Good debate imo.
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Old 06-28-2008, 06:47 PM   #14209
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Also I think it's hilarious that my Perkins pick has gotten such hate (who went in the 7th round mind you),
EpiPen,

You continue to do this. I've said this like a hundred times now but I could write a long post agreeing with you on 10 things and disagree on one and you would claim that I'm "hating" on your pick!

A lot of people have liked Perkins. Someone saying they like the guy drafted ONE SPOT AFTER HIM isn't hating on him. For example, I wish I took Eddie Jones in the 2nd round....but that doesn't mean I hate my Penny Hardaway pick.

You seem to welcome this "me against the world" mentality. A lot of people are agreeing with you about Perkins. Don't just focus on the negatives.
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Old 06-28-2008, 06:48 PM   #14210
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
Bobbo, one thing that you didn't even mention though is that Perk had a huge jump in productivity this year with great players around him. EpiPen has been trying to make it out as if that was a normal progression, but looking at the stats its clear that its in large part due to his teamates around him, as you don't slowly get better for years and then make one huge jump usually.

Based upon this, I agree with you(and disagree with EpiPen) about Perkins not improving anymore.
I disagree with that, as Cliff Ray/Thibadeau/Perkins improving his body had a lot more impact in improving Perkins defense than the guys around him.

And regardless, even if I did agree with you (which I don't), Perkins will be playing around great players on my team also (and possibly even a greater defense than the Celtics had, and if it's not it will be very very close), so your point doesn't even work.
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Old 06-28-2008, 06:49 PM   #14211
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
EpiPen,

You continue to do this. I've said this like a hundred times now but I could write a long post agreeing with you on 10 things and disagree on one and you would claim that I'm "hating" on your pick!

A lot of people have liked Perkins. Someone saying they like the guy drafted ONE SPOT AFTER HIM isn't hating on him. For example, I wish I took Eddie Jones in the 2nd round....but that doesn't mean I hate my Penny Hardaway pick.

You seem to welcome this "me against the world" mentality. A lot of people are agreeing with you about Perkins. Don't just focus on the negatives.
Assani, when I say that, I am not talking about you, as you did not hate my pick. I am talking about the 5-10 OTHER people in this thread who did. (Infact like 3-4 of them if I recall had him on their worst picks list which was ridiculous and even more ridiculous than that was that they didn't have Dalembert on that list)

Last edited by EPiPeN11; 06-28-2008 at 06:56 PM.
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Old 06-28-2008, 07:06 PM   #14212
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

epi,

I think perk fits your team better fo sho - so I am not hating on the Perk pick, just comparing. Anyway, I know gilliam won't be putting up the same numbers as in irl, but I think you devalue his projected offensive output a little too much. He prob goes down to more of a 10/5 guy with reduced minutes/usage, but I get the feeling that you think it will be less than that. but its OK for us to disagree.

D
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Old 06-28-2008, 07:11 PM   #14213
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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epi,

I think perk fits your team better fo sho - so I am not hating on the Perk pick, just comparing. Anyway, I know gilliam won't be putting up the same numbers as in irl, but I think you devalue his projected offensive output a little too much. He prob goes down to more of a 10/5 guy with reduced minutes/usage, but I get the feeling that you think it will be less than that. but its OK for us to disagree.

D
No I think 10 is fine and might even be a little low, I would say maybe 11-12 ppg?
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Old 06-28-2008, 07:14 PM   #14214
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

this is Bobbo on Gary's computer, I really want to pick someone, so plz plz pix pix pix
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Old 06-28-2008, 07:16 PM   #14215
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I disagree with that, as Cliff Ray/Thibadeau/Perkins improving his body had a lot more impact in improving Perkins defense than the guys around him.
def disagree. His offensive game has improved.. i.e., his previous throw the ball at the hoop move has improved to a slightly arcing baby hook that drops a fair amount of the time. But his high FG% is largely a result of dunking a lot more due to the attention KG et. al. gets. He went from 6% of his shots being dunks to 20% (it was 9% the year before, since his foot problem definitely hurt him last year but don't want to obscure the facts).

05-06 shot selection
06-07 shot selection
07-08 shot selection

I think this data supports what I said above. We do see his eFG% go up on his "close" shots, i.e. his short jumpers and baby hooks. So he has improved. But taking way more dunks helps a lot. And from watching the games, it was clear he benefited from the attention everyone else got, as well as Rondo slashing.
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Old 06-28-2008, 07:25 PM   #14216
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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def disagree. His offensive game has improved.. i.e., his previous throw the ball at the hoop move has improved to a slightly arcing baby hook that drops a fair amount of the time. But his high FG% is largely a result of dunking a lot more due to the attention KG et. al. gets. He went from 6% of his shots being dunks to 20% (it was 9% the year before, since his foot problem definitely hurt him last year but don't want to obscure the facts).

05-06 shot selection
06-07 shot selection
07-08 shot selection

I think this data supports what I said above. We do see his eFG% go up on his "close" shots, i.e. his short jumpers and baby hooks. So he has improved. But taking way more dunks helps a lot. And from watching the games, it was clear he benefited from the attention everyone else got, as well as Rondo slashing.
Ok I agree Perkins offense has improved, but he is still not a guy u want to throw the ball into the post.

I was talking about Perkins benefiting a ton on the defensive end, not the offensive (I have already admited multiple times that he benefited a ton on the offensive by playing with KG/Pierce/Allen etc)
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Old 06-28-2008, 07:31 PM   #14217
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Epi,

I actually would have liked Gilliam on your team as the backup PF/C, but you obv needed a starting center first. I'm curious what your 2nd lineup is going to be like - namely if you draft a second center, or go small and let KMart run wild.

D
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Old 06-28-2008, 07:33 PM   #14218
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

perk 2-3 years ago throws the ball as hard as he can at the rim. perk this year has touch. and his post footwork has greatly improved.

<3 perk. i'm not looking forward to when it's rondo and perk's team, but i'm not dreading it either.
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Old 06-29-2008, 02:05 AM   #14219
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by cowboy2579
I'll give:
255, 306

For your:
250, 320
sorry, am totally not ready for my pick, so i have traded it to cowboy. i believe i'm getting slightly the worst of this trade, but it was the only one offered, so whatever. good luck

cowboy is on the clock
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Old 06-29-2008, 04:12 AM   #14220
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Round 7, Pick 250 - PF/C Antonio Davis



With this pick I'm getting a good frontcourt sub with a long career, very good physical presence/defense, very good rebounding and high efficiency offense - until he was about 32 anyway. Part of this was due to natural decline due to age, part of it was being on a Toronto team which had no other frontcourt threats.

In any event, Davis will be my primary frontcourt reserve since he can sub for either Rasheed or Chandler. When I have both him and Chandler on the court at the same time, offensive spacing will suffer somewhat because his mid-range game is mediocre and Chandler's is non-existant, allowing defenses to clog the lane to much greater effect than when Rasheed is in. With Rasheed and Davis in, my interior defense will suffer because while both Sheed and Davis are good post defenders, neither has elite size.

As to the good that Davis brings: I will be using him in exactly the role he played in Indiana behind Smits and Dale Davis, so I fully expect the type of production that he exhibited in Indiana. I also think that his addition gives me one of the most continuously tough frontlines in the league, experiencing less decline in rebounding and interior D than most when either starting PF or C is on the bench. Finally, his long and productive career (25 to 37) gives me a frontline that should go for a long long time in this league, with Sheed still playing well @ 33 and Chandler exhibiting signs that he will be a very durable center as well.

cowboy2579 team so far:
PG - Gary Payton
SG - Nick Anderson
SF - Larry Johnson
PF - Rasheed Wallace
C - Tyson Chandler

Bench:
SF/PF - Antoine Walker
PF/C - Antonio Davis
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Old 06-29-2008, 11:03 AM   #14221
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Antonio Davis is a great pick, and was the guy I was talking about who was the only other guy I was considering. He was a very good defender but was just too undersized for me to take since I would be playing him at center.
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Old 06-29-2008, 11:07 AM   #14222
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Epi,

I actually would have liked Gilliam on your team as the backup PF/C, but you obv needed a starting center first. I'm curious what your 2nd lineup is going to be like - namely if you draft a second center, or go small and let KMart run wild.

D
Yea i'll prob draft another center, and will always have at least 2 of McHale/Billups/Martin/Deng on the floor at all times.
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Old 06-29-2008, 12:25 PM   #14223
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Finally, the other of the Davis brothers - Dale was getting impatient. Good value, solid rebounding numbers.

D
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Old 06-29-2008, 01:18 PM   #14224
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Writeup is up.
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Old 06-29-2008, 01:25 PM   #14225
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Googs is white?
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