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Old 06-24-2008, 03:25 PM   #13926
tbach24
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

good point. i gotta go now but there was a reason why al jefferson exploded during the 2nd half, i just can't recall now. i'm sure kidcolin or someone will remember.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:31 PM   #13927
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

and he played 36 post. He was playing 20mpg in November. That's sickkkk bad. And anyway, you can see he's getting more touches as the year goes on (FGAs/min increase steadily month by month). Along with increased FG%.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:32 PM   #13928
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Man. I haven't looked or anything but is the quality of centers in the past 25 years or whatever really so poor that Dampier is drafted? If that's the case why not just wait until the final round and draft some random stiff... how much worse can it get?
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:43 PM   #13929
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

<------busted on the 3rd hand of today's WSOP, and........it wasn't even my shortest WSOP tourney this year. Running well obviously.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:47 PM   #13930
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Who cares if he gets a ton of points from the pick and roll? He shoots at a high efficiency with a high usage, I don't care if he does it by exclusively shooting half court sky hooks, it's all worth the same. His point guard is currently undrafted, so it's not like you can even make the argument that it's his point guard that's making him good, ala Nash/Amare. His turnovers are a problem that aren't captured by efficiency and usage, so if you want to attack something, attack that, but saying that you have to factor in the times that he doesn't shoot on the pick and roll (we do, it's called usage rate) or making up another hypothetical argument (if only his teammates would pass him the ball more, he'd have a 50% usage and a high efficiency!), sorry, that's not going to work.
+1
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:49 PM   #13931
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

xorbie,

Great write up. Glad to have you guys.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:51 PM   #13932
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Round 7, Pick 246: Jim Paxson



This was a tough choice for me, because I have more pressing needs at the 4 and the 1. But Paxson was simply too good a value to pass up at this point, especially since a lot of people were not buying my argument that Bowen would be an effective player right out of the gate. Paxson's early peak allows me to develop Rudy Gay and Bruce Bowen - they will now both be coming off the bench for the first four years (Gay for instant O, Bowen for isntant D). So how good was Paxson for the first four years of this league (age 24-27 seasons)?

Age 24: 82 games played, 18.9 PPG on .561 TS%, 3.4 APG, 1.6 SPG, 18.0 PER
Age 25: 81 games played, 21.7 PPG on .573 TS%, 2.9 APG, 1.7 SPG, 20.1 PER
Age 26: 81 games played, 21.3 PPG on .573 TS%, 3.1 APG, 1.5 SPG, 19.5 PER
Age 27: 68 games played, 17.9 PPG on .555 TS%, 3.9 APG, 1.5 SPG, 17.3 PER

In addition, he was in the top 10 in the NBA for turnover rate in each of those four years (top 10 as in low turnover rate, not high), and is 33rd in the NBA for his career. He made two all-star teams during this four year stretch, and even made the All-NBA 2nd team in his age-26 season. So Paxson gives me a very, very good efficient bulk scorer for the first four years. His production drops off substantially after that, but he won't be more than a bench guy for me after Bowen learns to shoot the corner 3 and mind**** opposing star players and Gay grows up.

I have never seen Paxson play, so I actually have some questions for people who may remember him from the 80s. He didn't shoot many 3s (and didn't shoot them well), but he had a great TS% during his peak. Did he have a killer midrange game, or was he very good at driving to the hoop, or was it a combination of the two? What was his defense like? His steals numbers look pretty decent, but his advanced defensive stats are average to slightly below average.... After his age-27 season, his numbers drop off and he starts coming off the bench. What happened to him? Was it something injury-related, did the aging process just take its toll early on him, or was it a team fit thing?

I admit that this pick is a bit of a gamble. I still really need a backup 4 and a backup 1, but I think I will still be able to get serviceable players at these positions later in the draft (or play Detlef at the 4 if all decent big men are off the board by the time I pick next). At this point in the draft, a guy who made an all-NBA 2nd team was just too much to pass up. This pick also reflects the difference in my approach from that of most of the other teams. Many other teams try to get all their players to peak at roughly the same time. I think that there is enough talent in this draft that I can pick a team that will be very competitive both in the early stages of the league and ten years down the road. So far I feel that I am succeeding at this, but a lot will depend on my future picks.

Lineup at the start of the league:

C Mutombo
PF Ruland
SF Schrempf
SG Paxson
PG Arenas
Bench: Bowen, Gay

Lineup 4/5 years down the road

C Mutombo
PF Schrempf/ undrafted player / Ruland if still healthy (admittedly unlikely)
SF Gay
SG Bowen
PG Arenas
Bench: Paxson, Ruland
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:53 PM   #13933
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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along with only scoring 17/game and having 3.9 TO/game. and also, you CANNOT use big al's stats previous to the 2nd half last year because doc never played him (IMO this is where most of my doc hatred came from, because celtics fans knew he was special after he torched jermaine oneal in a playoff game (doesn't really show in the bball-ref since doc benched him for the rest of that series..).
Luckily we have per 36 minute stats and efficiency stats which will not penalize lack of playing time. And AJ does not beat Dwight in those stats either.


Quote:
fwiw, i agree with epipen's post. dwight's offensive stats can look better if he's on the right team, but big al put up 22 on 53.5 TS% while only turning it over 2x per game on the 4th worst offensive team in the league. that's damn impressive and if you don't think those numbers would be way higher on orlando, then you're nuts.
Yet Dwight was just as good a year ago before Lewis got there and before Hedo broke out, so I'm not sure I understand your claim of that team being able to make their big man that much better.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:54 PM   #13934
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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'Cardo,

I agree somewhat. That's why everyone else on the team will be instructed not to pass to Stack, and Stack will be limited to 20 minutes per game. Even less when Lewis is still alive since Baron is going to take some of the minutes at the 2 and Lewis will as well, with Worthy at the 3.
lol
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:56 PM   #13935
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Can any team in the league match the 80s mustache combo of Ruland and Paxson? I don't think so.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:56 PM   #13936
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I saw some lists about best offenses and defenses in the league, and was surprised to see my team not on the defensive ones. I'm not sure why, but if you look at all of my guys stats defensively they're very good:

Sabonis averaged 1.9 (steals + blocks) per game in only 24 mpg. This doesn't even show that his best defensive attribute was his post defense. He averaged almost 11 rebounds/per 36 in his career.

Kemp also averaged between 1-2 blocks and 1-2 steals per game during his post-24 career, until he turned 30, and was a prolific rebounder. In addition, he was the a big part of the reason that those Sonics teams in the 90's were so good defensively that were consistently top 10 (and got way higher too) until SURPRISE Kemp left.

Hill before his injury posted some insane DWS and DRtg numbers. I'm not huge on these numbers, but we all know how quick Hill was, and he was 6'8.

Posey is a very good defender right now. When we debated it earlier, no one rated him lower than 3rd tier. Personally, I think he's second tier, which is still good.

Doc picked up over 2 steals per game and has solid DWS and DRtg numbers on some highly rated defensive teams.



I realize that DWS and DRtg are pretty crappy stats, but if you look at all 5 of my starters, they all were key pieces on some very good defenses. I don't think of any of them as "elite" but when you put together 5 guys who are going to play anywhere from "good" to "very good" defense, with heights of (6'4, 6'8, 6'8, 6'10, and 7'3) and I think that's going to be a damn good defense.
agreed, your team has been getting underrated/overlooked defensively.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:58 PM   #13937
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I don't disagree with epipen, but I think that if that were teh way the offense were designed, you could build Al Jefferson's ppg up to like 30/game without effecting his TS%. That's just the way he is. With D12, you absolutely could not get him 30/game without effecting both his TO/game massively, and dropping his TS%.
Come on man.....if you're going to make bold claims like this then you have to defend it with more reasoning than "thats just the way he is."

I happen to think you're way wrong, but I'd at least give your argument a listen and consider it. But what does "thats just the way he is" tell me?
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:59 PM   #13938
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Great pick, love Paxson, and his peak fits in perfectly with your team. Love love love your first year team.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:00 PM   #13939
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

btw I'm still completely shocked that 2 players are left(neither of whom I will take this round, but one of them I'll definitely take in round 8 if hes there....may even trade up for).
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:03 PM   #13940
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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GL today, was going to play it but got back from bball and i feel sick.

about Shaq, his PNR defense is actually really good. you're thinking about 35 yr old shaq that doesn't move that well; 25 yr old shaq he was SO quick, SO strong, SO tall, etc. This is a guy that has made 3 all defensive teams so it's not like he hasn't won awards. 101 career DRtg is VVV good; career 2.4 bpg/7.7 drpg/only 3.5 pfpg... I mean, I guess he's not on the same level as Ewing defensively, but he's likely the 10th best.
I considered both him and Jermaine O Neal for the list. Also considered Ratliff, Chandler, and Eaton. I thought about going top 15, but I felt like I would be guessing too much. So I think we pretty much agree on Shaq...I just had Peja ranked a bit higher, thats all.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:05 PM   #13941
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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lol, yeah. although he'd be good value right now.
I think you guys are exaggerating a bit. I definitely would've taken Horford already. Guys like Horace Grant/Charles Oakley went in the 2nd and 3rd and nobody thought they were bad....the main thing they have over Horford is being proven, but would any of us really be that surprised if Horford turns out as good as them? I think late 4th/early 5th even would've been ok for Al....maybe not great value there, but I wouldn't have called it a huge reach. But yea...3rd was definitely a reach.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:07 PM   #13942
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

God, I think I need to never argue about the Celtics with any Celtics homers ever again.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:08 PM   #13943
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

like the Paxson pick a lot. Kinda meh on the DAmpier pick, but you're right that theres not many big men left.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:15 PM   #13944
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Man what a diamond in the rough. Sick pick. His rebounding/defense suck and it doesn't look like he was an outside presence, but he really addresses your early years etc.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:16 PM   #13945
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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<------busted on the 3rd hand of today's WSOP, and........it wasn't even my shortest WSOP tourney this year. Running well obviously.
HH?
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:22 PM   #13946
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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HH?
Folded to cutoff who limps(lol), I raise to 225 with AA8K double suited, blinds fold, cutoff calls.

Flop comes 5TK with 2 spades(I have spades). He bets 300, I raise to 1425, he pushes, I call. He has bottom 2 pair and a gutshot(A5TQ) and his hand holds.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:26 PM   #13947
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Folded to cutoff who limps(lol), I raise to 225 with AA8K double suited, blinds fold, cutoff calls.

Flop comes 5TK with 2 spades(I have spades). He bets 300, I raise to 1425, he pushes, I call. He has bottom 2 pair and a gutshot(A5TQ) and his hand holds.
damn. you had the best hadn atleast better luck next year!
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:34 PM   #13948
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

I was a 55/45 favorite, but thats not really the point: With my hand(the king is important) I am never a huge underdog and I should have huge amount of fold equity. His hand is at best a small small favorite and is dominated a ton of times. Its a horrible play by him.

I'm thinking about playing in the $1000 rebuy tomorrow....not sure if I want to spend potentially $7000(I'd cap it there probably) on one live tourney though. Definitely would like to play the $2000 on Friday.

Also I'm getting some PMs about 2p2 basketball games. We really should try to organize things. Theres a gym thread in the Vegas 2008 forum and we heavily discuss it there....check it out.

Speaking of which, I'm off to the gym now.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:42 PM   #13949
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Come on man.....if you're going to make bold claims like this then you have to defend it with more reasoning than "thats just the way he is."

I happen to think you're way wrong, but I'd at least give your argument a listen and consider it. But what does "thats just the way he is" tell me?
Well the way he scores is mainly in iso's. If you continue pounding it into him, then he'll continue scoring at that rate IMO.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:43 PM   #13950
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

You guys have no idea how badly I wanna be in Vegas playing bball. Next year hopefully.
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