Round 7, Pick 246: Jim Paxson
This was a tough choice for me, because I have more pressing needs at the 4 and the 1. But Paxson was simply too good a value to pass up at this point, especially since a lot of people were not buying my argument that Bowen would be an effective player right out of the gate. Paxson's early peak allows me to develop Rudy Gay and Bruce Bowen - they will now both be coming off the bench for the first four years (Gay for instant O, Bowen for isntant D). So how good was Paxson for the first four years of this league (age 24-27 seasons)?
Age 24: 82 games played, 18.9 PPG on .561 TS%, 3.4 APG, 1.6 SPG, 18.0 PER
Age 25: 81 games played, 21.7 PPG on .573 TS%, 2.9 APG, 1.7 SPG, 20.1 PER
Age 26: 81 games played, 21.3 PPG on .573 TS%, 3.1 APG, 1.5 SPG, 19.5 PER
Age 27: 68 games played, 17.9 PPG on .555 TS%, 3.9 APG, 1.5 SPG, 17.3 PER
In addition, he was in the top 10 in the NBA for turnover rate in each of those four years (top 10 as in low turnover rate, not high), and is 33rd in the NBA for his career. He made two all-star teams during this four year stretch, and even made the All-NBA 2nd team in his age-26 season. So Paxson gives me a very, very good efficient bulk scorer for the first four years. His production drops off substantially after that, but he won't be more than a bench guy for me after Bowen learns to shoot the corner 3 and mind**** opposing star players and Gay grows up.
I have never seen Paxson play, so I actually have some questions for people who may remember him from the 80s. He didn't shoot many 3s (and didn't shoot them well), but he had a great TS% during his peak. Did he have a killer midrange game, or was he very good at driving to the hoop, or was it a combination of the two? What was his defense like? His steals numbers look pretty decent, but his advanced defensive stats are average to slightly below average.... After his age-27 season, his numbers drop off and he starts coming off the bench. What happened to him? Was it something injury-related, did the aging process just take its toll early on him, or was it a team fit thing?
I admit that this pick is a bit of a gamble. I still really need a backup 4 and a backup 1, but I think I will still be able to get serviceable players at these positions later in the draft (or play Detlef at the 4 if all decent big men are off the board by the time I pick next). At this point in the draft, a guy who made an all-NBA 2nd team was just too much to pass up. This pick also reflects the difference in my approach from that of most of the other teams. Many other teams try to get all their players to peak at roughly the same time. I think that there is enough talent in this draft that I can pick a team that will be very competitive both in the early stages of the league and ten years down the road. So far I feel that I am succeeding at this, but a lot will depend on my future picks.
Lineup at the start of the league:
C Mutombo
PF Ruland
SF Schrempf
SG Paxson
PG Arenas
Bench: Bowen, Gay
Lineup 4/5 years down the road
C Mutombo
PF Schrempf/ undrafted player / Ruland if still healthy (admittedly unlikely)
SF Gay
SG Bowen
PG Arenas
Bench: Paxson, Ruland