Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Sporting Events Discussion centered around sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-07-2008, 12:26 AM   #11426
Franchise 60
deliciously angry
 
Franchise 60's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Ferocious, isn't he?
Posts: 42,744
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack of Arcades View Post
Are people extrapolating, though? I certainly wouldn't expect any of my players to play any more minutes than they did. Well, maybe a few more - a guy like Brent Barry seems capable of playing 30-35 (Since he did it in Seattle).
I think the main issue is that guys who played more minutes and were effective starting will be more effective coming off the bench in limited minutes than guys who were role players in their time in the NBA. Because in most cases they are just better basketball players. I think this is being overlooked by many and role players that are currently in the NBA are being overrated.

Its an interesting topic though, and the opposite side does have valid points as well.
Franchise 60 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 12:26 AM   #11427
Jack of Arcades
Jumbo Jack
 
Jack of Arcades's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: The Bastion
Posts: 23,569
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

yeah I guess.

But then again these guys probably won't expected to be starters.
Jack of Arcades is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 12:30 AM   #11428
Franchise 60
deliciously angry
 
Franchise 60's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Ferocious, isn't he?
Posts: 42,744
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack of Arcades View Post
yeah I guess.

But then again these guys probably won't expected to be starters.
Which guys, the ones who were effective starters in the NBA or the ones who were effective role players in the NBA?

If my post was confusing, I think that guys who were solid starters in the league will be able to be more effective role players than guys who were role players during their time in the NBA.

It obviously isn't the case every time, but I guess the main point is that some are underestimating the ability of guys who were starters and played a lot of minutes to be very good guys off the bench in this exercise.
Franchise 60 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 12:32 AM   #11429
BobboFitos
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
BobboFitos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Cambridge, MA
Posts: 72,764
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

KLJ, I think people are very cognizant of a players inability to play major minutes. For example, Tbach (when picking Sabonis) notes that he gets a brilliant player... For 22mins a game. The reason Sabonis couldn't play more wasn't that skill-wise he wasn't capable, but conditioning wise he was. Again, Tbach understands this, and wont have Sabonis play 40mpg, but rather is going to have a backup get a lot of PT.

For my team, for instance, I am not sure of a rotation, but something like this seems fair:
C - Shaq (Age 24 real games/min: 51 games, 38.1 mpg, career MPG: 36.2) - I can likely play him at 36 mins then and not think twice, since this is less than both what he did at that age and for his career. It's not a stretch that I can play him 40 mins a game during the playoffs either.
PF - DC (Age 24 real games/min: 65, 34.0 mpg, career MPG: 33.2) - I can likely play him at 32 mins then and not think twice, since this is less than both what he did at that age and for his career. It's not a stretch I can play him 36 mins a game during the playoffs either.
SF (or SG) - EJ (Age 24 real games/min: 70, 31.2 mpg, career MPG: 34.4) - I can likely play him at 32 mins / playoff 36.
PG - TB (67 games, 29.3 mpg - 29.8 career) So I can't likely slate TB running the show for 30+ mins, which is fine; he's going to be a guy I will start and probably do the Jerry Sloan thing, which is play the first 8mins, come in with 5 to go in 2nd, and rinse/repeat for the 2nd half, so ~26 mpg. Playoff maybe stretch it to 28 or 30. Again, this is very reasonable.

I think people should (and have) these things in mind when they made their picks - there are some role players who simply are not capable of playing a 48 min game or such. (Basketball is exerting, remember that!)

edit: Some players obviously do play more at some points in their careers, like TB played 36.8 mpg as a 26 yr old - so you could stretch it to that point - but I wont, I will have someone backing him up getting 16-20 mins a game.
BobboFitos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 12:48 AM   #11430
Dudd
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dudd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: pm karak w/ ffb questions
Posts: 54,252
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

If someone is looking to move up, I'm fielding offers.
Dudd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 01:03 AM   #11431
BobboFitos
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
BobboFitos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Cambridge, MA
Posts: 72,764
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dudd View Post
If someone is looking to move up, I'm fielding offers.
PM sent, heading out to play poker.
BobboFitos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 01:29 AM   #11432
HighStakesPro
banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 1,949
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack of Arcades View Post
Top rated players this year by scoring PER, which is:

(Pts + FGM *.3 - FGA*.7 - (FTA-FTM*-.4)

per 48 minutes

Player Scoring PER
Amare Stoudemire 33.6
Kobe Bryant 28.8
LeBron James 28.7
Kevin Martin 27.8
Carmelo Anthony 27.6
Dirk Nowitzki 26.5
Manu Ginobili 25.9
Corey Maggette 25.6
Chris Bosh 25.5
Undrafted Player 24.9
Allen Iverson 24.8
Dwyane Wade 24.4
Yao Ming 24.4
Carlos Boozer 24.1
Kevin Garnett 23.4
Dwight Howard 23.3
Michael Redd 22.9
Richard Jefferson 22.9
Paul Pierce 22.2
Chauncey Billups 22.1
Chris Paul 22.0

This isn't adjusted for pace.
Link to this list so I can see who the undrafted player is?
Or put it in the thread, if we're going to offer up lists like this might as well have full disclosure.
HighStakesPro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 01:33 AM   #11433
TheQuietAnarchist
Formerly xorbie
 
TheQuietAnarchist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 22,826
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

I don't see why he should have to list the player at all, people have been making similar lists all draft long.
TheQuietAnarchist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 01:35 AM   #11434
capone0
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
capone0's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Philly
Posts: 43,034
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

I sent him a PM, it's not like the guy is that good or he'd already be gone.
capone0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 01:46 AM   #11435
HighStakesPro
banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 1,949
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Thanks, but I am kind of skeptical that it is one of those players that you mentioned, the list is all starting players who play a lot of minutes and are top scorers, the names you gave are role players with < 1000 minutes this season. It seems kind of weird that a role player would be 11th highest in the NBA on that list full of high scorers and mostly stars

I looked at the ppg leaders for this season to get a rough guess, there are two people sort among the leaders who haven't been drafted, I'm not sure if it is either of them but I doubt either will get drafted except maybe in the 9th or 10th round.
HighStakesPro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 01:50 AM   #11436
capone0
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
capone0's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Philly
Posts: 43,034
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Evidence

Do you think I have time to make things up.
capone0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 01:52 AM   #11437
Victor
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Victor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 65,790
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkNasty View Post
Congrats on finding 3 guys better than him.

FWIW, I think Battier and Prince also went too early. Chucker Dan went closest to where he should've.
hey clark, i think ur wrong. when i didnt watch the cavs, wiz or rapts i watched detroit. i thought prince was their best player.

i also thought big ben was best a few years ago. mebbe i was wrong. or was he the reason hey won titles?
Victor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 01:53 AM   #11438
HighStakesPro
banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 1,949
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

That page doesn't work. I'm not accusing you of anything, but from the pm, it sounded like you were making an educated guess because you mentioned two players, that's all. And I was just wondering where JoA got that list, it's kind of an esoteric stat.
HighStakesPro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 01:54 AM   #11439
capone0
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
capone0's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Philly
Posts: 43,034
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by HighStakesPro View Post
That page doesn't work. I'm not accusing you of anything, but from the pm, it sounded like you were making an educated guess because you mentioned two players, that's all. And I was just wondering where JoA got that list, it's kind of an esoteric stat.
The numbers weren't exactly right. I read it off ESPN Hollinger stats. I can't post that link. Fixed the evidence post.
capone0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 01:57 AM   #11440
Victor
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Victor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 65,790
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

i even made a post about it lon gtime ago.
Victor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 02:01 AM   #11441
Jack of Arcades
Jumbo Jack
 
Jack of Arcades's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: The Bastion
Posts: 23,569
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by HighStakesPro View Post
That page doesn't work. I'm not accusing you of anything, but from the pm, it sounded like you were making an educated guess because you mentioned two players, that's all. And I was just wondering where JoA got that list, it's kind of an esoteric stat.
I calculated it myself using just the scoring parts of PER. It is unadjusted though. Once adjusted for pace Hollinger's Game Score per 48 minutes is pretty much exactly PER.

once again the Formula for "scoring PER" is Pts + FG*.3 - FGA*.7 - (FTA-FT)*.44

That gives you a total, once you adjust it for 48 minutes you get a PER-type stat. I adjusted the numbers so 15 was average, like regular PER, so it's on the same scale.

Of the drafted players, the biggest dissconect between scoring and regular per belong to Kevin Martin, Kevin Durant, Amare, Kobe, Magette, Melo, Barbosa, Granger, Redd, and AI.

The other way, the best "possession" guys are Wallace, Camby, Kidd, Paul (assists mostly), Calderon, Rondo, Dalembert, Marion, Chandler, Sheed, and Duncan
Jack of Arcades is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 02:11 AM   #11442
Jack of Arcades
Jumbo Jack
 
Jack of Arcades's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: The Bastion
Posts: 23,569
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

BTW, PER is essentially:

(Points x 1.0) + (FGM x 0.4) + (FGA x -0.7) + ((FTA-FTM) x -0.4) + (OREB x 0.7) + (DREB x 0.3) + (STL x 1.0) + (AST x 0.7) + (BLK x 0.7) + (PF x -0.4) + (TO x -1.0)

All I'm doing is taking the first parts to see how PER rates your ability to score. If we turn it into an "offensive" stat and add in Turnovers and Assists, the new leaderboard is...

Chris Paul 31.7
LeBron James 31.4
Amare Stoudemire 31.3
Kobe Bryant 29.8
Steve Nash 28.6
Allen Iverson 28.0
Chauncey Billups 27.6
Deron Williams 27.4
Dirk Nowitzki 27.2
Manu Ginobili 26.8
Kevin Martin 26.6
Carmelo Anthony 25.9
Dwyane Wade 25.2
Jack of Arcades is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 04:19 AM   #11443
xxThe_Lebowskixx
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Indeed.
Posts: 6,512
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

the reason why these role players have more effective stats, higher fg% and ts% is because they take less shots and only take higher perentage shots BECAUSE THEY AREN'T GOOD ENOUGH. Do you think your 'specialist' would have such pretty stats if he was forced into the bulk scoring "chucker" role?

there are a handful of pure scorers (20ppg/10+ years) inexcusabley left in the draft. these guys would make much better role players for your team than actual role players.

drafting rondo here was ridiculously bad.
xxThe_Lebowskixx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 04:40 AM   #11444
xxThe_Lebowskixx
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Indeed.
Posts: 6,512
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by capone0 View Post
My only real inefficient guy is I have is Clifford, and the reason I picked him over other guys is he plays excellent D, he spreads the floor and he never got hurt; also my #1 Okur who is definitely more efficient but plays no D was picked before him. There are still some high efficiency guys left on the board who I am definitely targetting.
cliff robinson was a great pick and shows that you have basketball knowledge beyond 2003. he has a very long career and could do a ton of different things. he was a sick defender and he is the definition of the perfect 6th man.
xxThe_Lebowskixx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 04:51 AM   #11445
kkcountry
BBV MS Paint Rapid Response Squad
 
kkcountry's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: dimichele ripped
Posts: 31,249
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by xxThe_Lebowskixx View Post
the reason why these role players have more effective stats, higher fg% and ts% is because they take less shots and only take higher perentage shots BECAUSE THEY AREN'T GOOD ENOUGH. Do you think your 'specialist' would have such pretty stats if he was forced into the bulk scoring "chucker" role?

there are a handful of pure scorers (20ppg/10+ years) inexcusabley left in the draft. these guys would make much better role players for your team than actual role players.

drafting rondo here was ridiculously bad.
kkf is right
kkcountry is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 05:03 AM   #11446
HighStakesPro
banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 1,949
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Just a heads up, I'm gonna be out of town until tuesday night, doubt it will be my pick by then but you never know.
HighStakesPro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 06:29 AM   #11447
flyingmoose
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 2,224
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Guysmz, I fucning won the dratf. I jusr played NBAJAM tornament editin for the genisis and scored 68 points with danningn manning. 68 points. my 6gth man. GG ya'll

For copmarison my freid only scored 42 with hilary clinton so danny manning is at leats 30% better at basketball than hillary clinton is.
flyingmoose is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 09:13 AM   #11448
Jack of Arcades
Jumbo Jack
 
Jack of Arcades's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: The Bastion
Posts: 23,569
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by xxThe_Lebowskixx View Post
the reason why these role players have more effective stats, higher fg% and ts% is because they take less shots and only take higher perentage shots BECAUSE THEY AREN'T GOOD ENOUGH. Do you think your 'specialist' would have such pretty stats if he was forced into the bulk scoring "chucker" role?

there are a handful of pure scorers (20ppg/10+ years) inexcusabley left in the draft. these guys would make much better role players for your team than actual role players.

drafting rondo here was ridiculously bad.
Until people give me examples of players who were mediocre starters but excelled as a role player, I'll draft role players when I'm looking to fill out my roster with role players.
Jack of Arcades is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 09:51 AM   #11449
horizon
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,501
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack of Arcades View Post
Until people give me examples of players who were mediocre starters but excelled as a role player, I'll draft role players when I'm looking to fill out my roster with role players.
LA Lakers 2000-2003
mediocre starters hailed as good role players
horizon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2008, 11:14 AM   #11450
tbach24
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
tbach24's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: @tbach2
Posts: 11,476
Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by xxThe_Lebowskixx View Post
the reason why these role players have more effective stats, higher fg% and ts% is because they take less shots and only take higher perentage shots BECAUSE THEY AREN'T GOOD ENOUGH. Do you think your 'specialist' would have such pretty stats if he was forced into the bulk scoring "chucker" role?

there are a handful of pure scorers (20ppg/10+ years) inexcusabley left in the draft. these guys would make much better role players for your team than actual role players.

drafting rondo here was ridiculously bad.
a) most players aren't content to not be taking a lot of shots. take shane battier as an example of the opposite. in 36 mpg, he was content taking only 7 shots per game. he averaged only 9.3 ppg. but what is special about him is what he did on the other side of the court, where he was arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA.
b) these "20ppg/10+years" guys probably suck at defense
c) rondo was selected too early, but to use my posey point again, he was either the 3rd or 4th most important player on the celtics this year. as a 21 year old.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack of Arcades View Post
Until people give me examples of players who were mediocre starters but excelled as a role player, I'll draft role players when I'm looking to fill out my roster with role players.
+1

Quote:
Originally Posted by horizon View Post
LA Lakers 2000-2003
mediocre starters hailed as good role players
they won 3 championships...i'd say they did aiight in their role player role. did they win a championship when they added malone and payton?
tbach24 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:01 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive