+7

Hey Assani did you get me in as a late entry? I've got big things planned for the 33/34th picks...

sure thing, check the other thread to make sure you're on the list. If you're not then let me know.

I'm in...Thanks!!

Don't even think about taking Van Exel, he's my 2nd round sleeper.

So is there a minimum/maximum requirement for each position? Say you need one of each of the five positions and no more than two at any single position. So you couldn't have three point guards or whatever?

jack,

any link about the diff between a 33.3 percent 3 pointer versus a 50 percent 2 pointer?

this is honestly the first i have ever heard of this. is this your theory, or something that has been discussed by intelligent basketball minds before?

My guess would be that these types of shots lead to more offensive rebounds no?

i guess someone could do a study of 2pt field goal attempts (actually attempts, including the ones where you get fouled), and the points yielded per attempt (with free throws coming from getting fouled on a 2pt field goal attempt) and compare it to the same thing with regards to 3pt shots.

you could also do a correlation study between giving up points on fast breaks and what factor 3pt attempts have on it, but you'd also have to factor in increased offensive rebounds and the average yield for that as well, and by then your study gets kind of convoluted.

also looking through some older drafts, there are some ****ing sleepers that 90% wont even consider drafting, let alone even know

also, what is the status of players who were died before they turned 24?

isn't the whole getting fouled thing negated by the fact that free throws are already used in player evaluation anyway? bron already goes to the line >10 times per game anyway.

the reason why you need to factor freethrows to determine whether a 50% 2pt shooter or a 33% 3pt shooter is better is because players get fouled significantly more on 2pt attempts (which don't get recorded unless the shot is made), so a statistically significant amount of 2pt attempts dont get factored into the %

a player's 2pt attempt total yield should be something like:
2*(made)+1*(FT made as a result of getting fouled)

and the average yield divides by the total number of attempts (including those where he got fouled, but not double-counting "and-1s")

this is where the media's favorite "he scored 20 points on 10 shots, he's so good" statement is a little silly when the guy goes 4/10 from the field, and 12/20 from the line

Just my theory, so I could be completely off. However, consider the average fg% on 2pt shots this year was .485, while the average fg% on 3pters was .362. A 50% shot is an above average one while a 33% shot is a below average one. This isn't a matter of pure pts/shot but of opportunity cost. In all likelihood, a 33% 3 pt shot isn't going to be the best shot on the floor. Sure, sometimes you need to jack one up, but unless you can be at least an average 3p shooter, taking more than a frew is probably a mistake.


KLJ: I think that's what Win Score/PER does. The break even point is quite low (21%). It's 30% for 2pters.

hey guys - I think y'all would agree that having a separate thread JUST for the picks is a good idea. If anyone (like RUFFNECk) makes their pick in this thread - itd be cool if anyone would just copy it onto the "Draft ONLY" thread.

For some reason - Dshmeid and Kid colin already posted comments in that thread (i dont know why)...and Im sure there will be more. Is it possible for MODS to delete those posts out of that thread?

And - I was expecting Lebron to go in the top 10 or 15...but not the Top 3.

interesting, i know nothing about basketball "sabermetrics", if you will, so everything is just theory on my part. do they have books on the matter?

But it's part of the opportunity cost. If you're taking a 3, you're getting to the line less. So you need to evaluate 2pt shots with the value of the extra points they generate, with also the added value of getting the other team closer to the bonus or whatever.

If you guys havnt noticed (kidcolin - im talkin to you about your comment in the other thread)...this thread is for open discussion and the other thread is just to keep the drafting process organized enough to help move this draft along effieciently.

I still think that any time up until maybe 3-4 minutes to go, that the EV of a shot is the only thing that matters, and really would like to be proven otherwise.

The 01-02 Celtics jacked 24 threes per game at 34 percent, played some solid D (well, as solid as you can play with Antoine Walker in the lineup), and won 49 games along with going to the Eastern Conference Finals.

no, build your team however you want.

EV of a shot is always going to be relative to other shots, though. Even though something might be +EV, it might not be as positive as another shot.

Then you get them at the age they were when they died. IF they died in a freak accident, then they are no more likely to die than anyone else. If they died due to putting themselves in danger, then they're going to be in that same danger of dying in our league.

+1

i was confused and asked a question. Shake the sand out fellas

Len Bias, anyone?

rules state that they have to have played in a NBA regular season game.