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Old 05-27-2008, 06:51 PM   #7851
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by tbach24 View Post
Yeah, but it's a very short list of names who've gone for 20+ a game with a .6 or higher TS%. The list is MJx4, Magicx3, Reggiex6, Kevin Johnsonx2, Moncreifx2, Penny, and Ray Allen. So he's in some good company.

Edit- and Kevin Martin has already done it twice.
Wow, impressive stat(for KM). Also shows how great Penny was.
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Old 05-27-2008, 06:51 PM   #7852
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Ruff,

Yeah it's not the greatest players, but we can't ignore the fact that you have Magic ****ing Johnson. Nobody can suck when playing with that guy.
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Old 05-27-2008, 06:52 PM   #7853
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by tbach24 View Post
Yeah, but it's a very short list of names who've gone for 20+ a game with a .6 or higher TS%. The list is MJx4, Magicx3, Reggiex6, Kevin Johnsonx2, Moncreifx2, Penny, and Ray Allen. So he's in some good company.

Edit- and Kevin Martin has already done it twice.
Exactly why we shouldn't expect him to be able to do it for an extending period of time or improve a lot.

Again, I like Kevin Martin, and I like the pick a lot. I just don't think it is the OMG GREATEST PICK EVER.

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LOL, thats a ridiculous manipulation of stats. Of course theres more players that hit their career high of 20+ppg maybe once or twice but were otherwise 15-20 ppg scorers. That proves nothing.

What we're looking at are players like Chris Paul/Dwight Howard/Deron Williams/etc. who have consantly improved at a very young age and now appear to be hitting their primes around their young/mid 20s. Historically these players are more likely to keep improving and/or stay at their prime levels than to suddenly fall off.
How am I manipulating stats? I'm just saying a lot of players that play that position don't keep up the same production over a 6+ year stretch. So it would be foolish to expect Kevin Martin to do it. I'm not even arguing he won't do it, just that it is far from guaranteed.

I'm also not talking about Chris Paul and Dwight Howard. I think it is much more likely that they improve or keep their production, because well they are much better players.
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Old 05-27-2008, 06:54 PM   #7854
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

The point isn't that he's going to be 20 ppg and .6 TS% for the rest of his career, more the fact that the list he's on included 3 first rounders in this and 4 second rounders.

Edit- further, this doesn't necessarily disprove that he absolutely won't fall off the horse (nothing can, except time), but shows that he's in VERY good company in terms of having a good career (two of those guys were ravaged by injury though, so he could also take that path)
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Old 05-27-2008, 06:58 PM   #7855
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by tbach24 View Post
Yeah, but it's a very short list of names who've gone for 20+ a game with a .6 or higher TS%. The list is MJx4, Magicx3, Reggiex6, Kevin Johnsonx2, Moncreifx2, Penny, and Ray Allen. So he's in some good company.

Edit- and Kevin Martin has already done it twice.
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Old 05-27-2008, 06:58 PM   #7856
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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There are a lot more 2 guards/swingmen who had a couple seasons of 20+ppg and fell off than ones who scored 20+ for their entire career (or even for a 5-7 year stretch).
eh i'm pretty sure this isnt even true, especially if you are talking about the guys who have a couple of seasons at 20+ppg with really good efficency being 24 or less years old when they did it.
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Old 05-27-2008, 06:59 PM   #7857
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Chris Mullin also has 2 years of 20+ppg and 6 TS % btw
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:00 PM   #7858
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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C'mon now. From 24 til 29 (the first 5 years I get him) he not only was dishing out 8+/game he had a TS% of about 53%. Not great but hardly Wallace-like and its not like he was attempting 20+ a game like Baron. I think you are unfairly latching onto a career average that includes two irrelevant years when he was 22 and 23, and some post-peak years where his shooting declined. He was far from incompetant during his peak and I think we both agree he has room for growth above that in this situation.
This is now the second time you've said "around 53%." His TS%s were 46.5, 51.5, 48.7, 53.1, 52.9, and 54.8 during this span. Obviously we'd have to weigh in the fact that some years he took more shots than others and stuff to get an exact percentage, but just adding those up and dividing by 6 we get a TS% of 51.2, which is not "around 53%" imo.

Also if he fell off after age 29 but stopped shooting the ball often then that'd be fine. But he fell off and continued to shoot! His TS% the next 4 years was 46.2, 46.3, 46.8, and 45.5 and he shot the ball 13.4, 13.6, 11.5, and 11.6 times per game(not counting free throws). That is a killer for your team offensively.

I just think there were better picks available. I don't want glaring weaknesses on my team as it makes my team a lot more easy to gameplan for.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:01 PM   #7859
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Kikix5
Yeah I clicked the "guards only" button bc I didn't want stupid big men ruining everything, but I'm sure there are more swingmen who techincally weren't guards like Kiki that could involve themselves with this statistic.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:03 PM   #7860
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Exactly why we shouldn't expect him to be able to do it for an extending period of time or improve a lot.

Again, I like Kevin Martin, and I like the pick a lot. I just don't think it is the OMG GREATEST PICK EVER.



How am I manipulating stats? I'm just saying a lot of players that play that position don't keep up the same production over a 6+ year stretch. So it would be foolish to expect Kevin Martin to do it. I'm not even arguing he won't do it, just that it is far from guaranteed.

I'm also not talking about Chris Paul and Dwight Howard. I think it is much more likely that they improve or keep their production, because well they are much better players.

Its a manipulation of stats because the large percentage of guys who fit the bill of what you're talking about would be career 15 or so PPG scorers who have one great season and hit 20 one time. We're not talking about that. We're talking about young guys who come into the league and constantly improve for 2 or 3 years and then hit 20. With these guys, its likely that they maintain that level of production imo barring injury.


As for your first paragraph, that stat shows how great hes been. He doesn't have to keep hiting 60% TS to be great. Hell 20+ points per game on 58+% TS from the wing spot is phenomenal.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:04 PM   #7861
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Its a manipulation of stats because the large percentage of guys who fit the bill of what you're talking about would be career 15 or so PPG scorers who have one great season and hit 20 one time. We're not talking about that. We're talking about young guys who come into the league and constantly improve for 2 or 3 years and then hit 20. With these guys, its likely that they maintain that level of production imo barring injury.


As for your first paragraph, that stat shows how great hes been. He doesn't have to keep hiting 60% TS to be great. Hell 20+ points per game on 58+% TS from the wing spot is phenomenal.
exactly
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:05 PM   #7862
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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but trades and changing roles won't be a factor in our league since we'll build around these players to highlight their strengths(and if they fell off in real life due to this like AK47 then we'll build our team around how their team was when they were dominant). Yes injuries are a factor though. However, young guys who do not appear to be injury prone are only very very slightly more likely to get hurt in our league than guys with long careers who have been relatively injury free. If anyone is going to use injury concerns against guys like DHo or Deron Williams, then I think thats a very weak argument.
regarding changing roles:

what i meant is that some players find themselves in a "perfect storm" situation where everything about a team's offense caters to a certain player and he excels. i argue that this is because of a great situation, not because he's a great player.

if you build your team around one of these guys (generally 2nd or 3rd option type players), he is likely to produce 1st option numbers. however, given that you already have a 1st and 2nd option (generally), he's no longer going to be in this great system and will be a good (or very good) role player. but then it's unfair to say that he will get all of the high +EV opportunities that he previously got in this perfect offense, and whatever +EV he stands to achieve depends on his skill set rather than previous success.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:05 PM   #7863
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

The entire list is pretty cool too. Chuck's on it 7 times, Bird's on it twice, Dantley's on it 9 times, D12, Bernard King, the Mailman, God McHale (x5), Mullin, Kiki, Nance, Peja, Amare, Glen Rice, and Worthy.

I'm sure it would look really long for centers. Not sure why D12 is on teh forwards list.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:06 PM   #7864
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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If by "nothing on offense" you mean put up 10-15 points on exceptional TS% then I agree with you. Oh no actually I still can't agree as he is a very good passer for his position(4.0 assist this past year), finishes very well at the rim, has added a solid 3 point shot, and is a good offensive rebounder too(2.0 per his career). Also wtf cares how his shot looks? He hit 37.9% of his 3s this past year. He has the 60th highest PER in NBA history, the 58th best TS% in NBA history, and the 86th best offensive rating in NBA history. I got him at the 115th pick and we're only picking from 1979-present players.


And thats just offense- his weak point!! You don't even try to argue his defense, so I'm taking it that you agree there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnxsX...eature=related

Passes at 3:25, 4:08, and 3:38 are sick imo. Dribble behind the back at 4:25 is pretty sick. His dunks and blocks are prevalent throughout the video.
he fell off mightily the last 2 years. its nice how u ignore that. his best year he only played 41 games. the next year 69. nice that u ignore that too. oh wait, i forgot ur players are immune to injury and any deterioration in skill. the 2 years before that he was too young to matter in this league.

then when his team started winning he decided he would demand a trade bc he isnt appreciated or some crap even tho hes getting paid a redic amount.

not reliable and a head case. that hurts a lot in real life. but im sure you will have the best doctors and psychologists and ak will be a model citizen and bionic.

whatever, ak is a nice pick here but theres no way hes close to accomplished what prince has.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:12 PM   #7865
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

horizon horizon is online now
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lets knock out a bunch of picks tonight? it can easily get back to horizon on the snake by tomorrow i think.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:12 PM   #7866
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Its a manipulation of stats because the large percentage of guys who fit the bill of what you're talking about would be career 15 or so PPG scorers who have one great season and hit 20 one time. We're not talking about that. We're talking about young guys who come into the league and constantly improve for 2 or 3 years and then hit 20. With these guys, its likely that they maintain that level of production imo barring injury.


As for your first paragraph, that stat shows how great hes been. He doesn't have to keep hiting 60% TS to be great. Hell 20+ points per game on 58+% TS from the wing spot is phenomenal.
Pretty big if isn't it? Wasn't it you who was willing to bet up to 10k based on Kevin Martin's durability?

The main part of the argument is that he could easily get hurt, so we shouldn't expect him to put up insane numbers for a long period of time. Obviously he can, I just don't think its a lot more likely that he will than he won't. All I'm arguing is don't take it for granted, I think my argument is a lot more sound and reasonable than expecting him to put up these numbers or better for the next 6-8 years.

There is risk involved, and the risk should be accepted, thats all.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:13 PM   #7867
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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regarding changing roles:

what i meant is that some players find themselves in a "perfect storm" situation where everything about a team's offense caters to a certain player and he excels. i argue that this is because of a great situation, not because he's a great player.

if you build your team around one of these guys (generally 2nd or 3rd option type players), he is likely to produce 1st option numbers. however, given that you already have a 1st and 2nd option (generally), he's no longer going to be in this great system and will be a good (or very good) role player. but then it's unfair to say that he will get all of the high +EV opportunities that he previously got in this perfect offense, and whatever +EV he stands to achieve depends on his skill set rather than previous success.

I know that you are talking about this in a broad sense, but of course since I drafted AK47 thats the player I'm most interested in discussing. And with him his offense is still damn efficient. He has a bit lower usage, so he doesn't score as much but I don't really care too much about 3 or 4 more points per game, so I won't argue there as long as you'll admit that he'd be efficient in any system.

What matters for him is his defense, specifically how his blocks have gone down. I think, as many have mentioned, thats mostly due to being moved to the SF spot. I think I can easily move him back to PF and regain a lot of that.


Overall though, I understand your point and I agree.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:14 PM   #7868
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

depending on who is left when it gets back to me I could take a while. There's a few uber-stretches I want to make so badly.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:16 PM   #7869
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

I'm picking Drazen Petrovic because he's one of my favorite players ever and it would break my heart to let him go...
Write up coming in the draft only thread.
It's sick that Horace Grant and Drazen Petrovic were the two guys that I were planning to take all along in the second round and third round(unless I could take a huge steal).
It can only mean two things: I've got a very good idea of the talent pool available or I suck and overvalue the players that I take. Let's hope its not the second option.
My team so far:
Drazen Petrovic/ Lebron James/Horace Grant/
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:16 PM   #7870
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Pretty big if isn't it? Wasn't it you who was willing to bet up to 10k based on Kevin Martin's durability?

The main part of the argument is that he could easily get hurt, so we shouldn't expect him to put up insane numbers for a long period of time. Obviously he can, I just don't think its a lot more likely that he will than he won't. All I'm arguing is don't take it for granted, I think my argument is a lot more sound and reasonable than expecting him to put up these numbers or better for the next 6-8 years.

There is risk involved, and the risk should be accepted, thats all.
And there is risk involved for a bunch of the old timers who stayed healthy during their careers as well. Just because they stayed healthy during their NBA Careers doesn't mean they won't get hurt in our league and screw up their career.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:17 PM   #7871
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I'm picking Drazen Petrovic because he's one of my favorite players ever and it would break my heart to let him go...
Write up coming in the draft only thread.
It's sick that Horace Grant and Drazen Petrovic were the two guys that I were planning to take all along in the second round and third round(unless I could take a huge steal).
It can only mean two things: I've got a very good idea of the talent pool available or I suck and overvalue the players that I take. Let's hope its not the second option.
My team so far:
Drazen Petrovic/ Lebron James/Horace Grant/
greatttttttttt pick, he was the other guy who I said I wanted really really bad
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:17 PM   #7872
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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he fell off mightily the last 2 years. its nice how u ignore that. his best year he only played 41 games. the next year 69. nice that u ignore that too. oh wait, i forgot ur players are immune to injury and any deterioration in skill. the 2 years before that he was too young to matter in this league.

then when his team started winning he decided he would demand a trade bc he isnt appreciated or some crap even tho hes getting paid a redic amount.

not reliable and a head case. that hurts a lot in real life. but im sure you will have the best doctors and psychologists and ak will be a model citizen and bionic.

whatever, ak is a nice pick here but theres no way hes close to accomplished what prince has.


His assist and efficiency numbers have not fallen off one bit. His steals and blocks have, but as has been explained thats due to his move to the SF. When you're out there on a wing guy, you can't roam very often. When you're right there near the paint on D you will often be there for blocks and steals when the ball enters the lane. I plan to play him at the PF.

I like how you ignored every offensive stat I brought up btw.


You mention that Prince has played on winning teams, but if anything that should help his efficiency numbers, and hes not as efficient as AK47. I'd much rather have the more efficient guy in a league like this where I'm not going to need a ton of bulk scoring.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:18 PM   #7873
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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And there is risk involved for a bunch of the old timers who stayed healthy during their careers as well. Just because they stayed healthy during their NBA Careers doesn't mean they won't get hurt in our league and screw up their career.
But the risk is ALOT less, and thats what you aren't understanding.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:19 PM   #7874
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Pretty big if isn't it? Wasn't it you who was willing to bet up to 10k based on Kevin Martin's durability?

The main part of the argument is that he could easily get hurt, so we shouldn't expect him to put up insane numbers for a long period of time. Obviously he can, I just don't think its a lot more likely that he will than he won't. All I'm arguing is don't take it for granted, I think my argument is a lot more sound and reasonable than expecting him to put up these numbers or better for the next 6-8 years.

There is risk involved, and the risk should be accepted, thats all.
Yes with players like Martin or Penny Hardaway there is an injury risk. However with players like Deron Williams there is no more injury risk than with someone who is retired and had few injury problems.

Moreover, many guys may have been injury prone but just gotten lucky to never get hurt. The guy I constantly think of regarding this is Allen Iverson. So small and so reckless...I think hes been extremely fortunate to never get hurt.
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Old 05-27-2008, 07:20 PM   #7875
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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But the risk is ALOT less, and thats what you aren't understanding.
I disagree that it's A LOT less, less maybe but not A LOT less unless that old timer was insanely durable which most weren't.
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