I like Sam, almost took him. Guy is a winner. Developed into a good shooter in his early 30's too.

Assani with the all injured team. I mean, AK is ok, but taking another of these brittle dudes like ensures everyone assumes one guy will be hurt at all times.

Another example of why everyone just extrapolating a career based off todays stats for guys under 26 is an error.

AK47 career usage%: 19. AK47 career TS%: .572.
Prince career usage%: 18.5. Prince career TS%: .534.
Battier career usage%: 14.2 Battier career TS%: .559.

Now, how out of the three of those players you think AK is the one who does the least on offense, I don't know. Obviously he was better numbers wise pre-Deron, but he's a lower usage, higher efficiency scorer now. Clearly he's never been a player who stands around and only shoots threes at a poor percentage.

i had a gentleman's bet with another drafter that you would take him

lol.. "not so hot rod".. sorta like A-Rod!

pretty sure thats not waht i was saying. just that ak is overrated by the media and this board.

i think prince is better bc hes not a headcase that cries when hes not the man even tho his team is actually winning. prince is better defender and has taken on all world players. prince has been awesomely reliable (which seems to matter irl but not in this draft)

yeah that's another thing I wanted to mention.. his peak lines up nicely with Larry's. We gonna ROLL son.

You went on to act indignant that someone could think that AK was better than Prince, when for his career he's a slightly higher usage and much more efficient scorer. Not sure how I could take that any other way. Durability is pretty much the only thing Prince has.

AK's TS% might be a bit inflated in that he gets a lot of fast break points whereas Battier and Tayshaun play in slower, less fast-break oriented systems.

The Jazz were 10th and 15th in pace the last two seasons, and then in the bottom five with Detroit before that. How much of an effect could that have, we're not talking about the Warriors here?

yeah, early in AK's career his TS% was still just as high even with Utah being bottom 5 in pace

RE: RUFFNECK's team.

I'm disappointed with how this team turned out b/c with Magic as your first pick, you have some flexibility. But I think the fact that RUFF had to take Hot Rod in the 3rd, shows that Redd in the second was a mistake.

Right now, I just don't see how this team is going to contend with any team that has good rebounding / a quality big man.

D

Ok I recently started thinking about this due to this statement being posted a ton, and it's funny how you guys making this statement fail to see or even mention the other side. Infact I am almost positive that more players actually improve instead of fall off.

So while it's certainly possible that these players fall off in a few years, it's even more possible they continue to improve.

better players than hot rod but he def has the best nickname.

Touche. Looking closer at his stats, there are some odd fluctuations in his TS%. It's like 55, 60, 56, 60, 55.5, 56, 60. WTF is going on there?

There are a lot more 2 guards/swingmen who had a couple seasons of 20+ppg and fell off than ones who scored 20+ for their entire career (or even for a 5-7 year stretch).

+1 due to trades, injury = loss of athleticism, changing roles, etc.

If by "nothing on offense" you mean put up 10-15 points on exceptional TS% then I agree with you. Oh no actually I still can't agree as he is a very good passer for his position(4.0 assist this past year), finishes very well at the rim, has added a solid 3 point shot, and is a good offensive rebounder too(2.0 per his career). Also wtf cares how his shot looks? He hit 37.9% of his 3s this past year. He has the 60th highest PER in NBA history, the 58th best TS% in NBA history, and the 86th best offensive rating in NBA history. I got him at the 115th pick and we're only picking from 1979-present players.


And thats just offense- his weak point!! You don't even try to argue his defense, so I'm taking it that you agree there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnxsX...eature=related

Passes at 3:25, 4:08, and 3:38 are sick imo. Dribble behind the back at 4:25 is pretty sick. His dunks and blocks are prevalent throughout the video.

Yeah, but it's a very short list of names who've gone for 20+ a game with a .6 or higher TS%. The list is MJx4, Magicx3, Reggiex6, Kevin Johnsonx2, Moncreifx2, Penny, and Ray Allen. So he's in some good company.

Edit- and Kevin Martin has already done it twice.

+1

I'm really not convinced that's true. Doing some b-ref searches now.

edit: that guys crashing is more common than prolonged productive play

C'mon now. From 24 til 29 (the first 5 years I get him) he not only was dishing out 8+/game he had a TS% of about 53%. Not great but hardly Wallace-like and its not like he was attempting 20+ a game like Baron. I think you are unfairly latching onto a career average that includes two irrelevant years when he was 22 and 23, and some post-peak years where his shooting declined. He was far from incompetant during his peak and I think we both agree he has room for growth above that in this situation.

LOL, thats a ridiculous manipulation of stats. Of course theres more players that hit their career high of 20+ppg maybe once or twice but were otherwise 15-20 ppg scorers. That proves nothing.

What we're looking at are players like Chris Paul/Dwight Howard/Deron Williams/etc. who have consantly improved at a very young age and now appear to be hitting their primes around their young/mid 20s. Historically these players are more likely to keep improving and/or stay at their prime levels than to suddenly fall off.

I agree with this view. The team is not what I was hoping for, and the lists I seem to make before my picks, every player gets picked before I have a shot.
I probably should have gone a diff. way in the second, but Redd seemed like too much value to let fall, it was probably a mistake.

My hand was forced to take a big man here, and I tried to think about who might play best with Magic and give me decent D. I had quite a few others on my short list all who went before me just like in the last round. I had alot of guys rated higher than Hot Rod, but I didn't want to be left with a total stiff at center. I think Hot Rod is a tad underrated because he had to play with Nance and Daughtery in his prime.

but trades and changing roles won't be a factor in our league since we'll build around these players to highlight their strengths(and if they fell off in real life due to this like AK47 then we'll build our team around how their team was when they were dominant). Yes injuries are a factor though. However, young guys who do not appear to be injury prone are only very very slightly more likely to get hurt in our league than guys with long careers who have been relatively injury free. If anyone is going to use injury concerns against guys like DHo or Deron Williams, then I think thats a very weak argument.