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Old 05-17-2008, 05:01 PM   #3701
Assani Fisher
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by Jon34 View Post
I don't have all the more modern stats at my fingertips (TS%, PER, etc..) but I do know that Jordan shot 52-54% from the field in his prime vs. 43-45% for Arenas at his peak (which was shorter lived so far, jury still out). In an era with much tougher rules for a wing scorer, I can't see how you can say that Jordan wouldn't tear up the league with current rules. Just about every other contender in the Jordan era was built around a center (Hakeem, Ewing, Robinson) or a 4 with a good point guard (Malone/Stockton, Barkley, Kemp/Payton).

Rules were tweaked earlier in the decade that opened up the game, making it easier for scoring wings like Kobe, McGrady, Carter, Pierce, Wade, LeBron, and Arenas.

All I'm saying is that Jordan's career high was 37 ppg, but under current rules he could have hit 40+.

I don't think guys like arenas would be as effective if for example, the guards on the early 90's knicks were allowed to hand check all day.
I've been through this before, but....

You are right that rules have been changed to help offense, but defense has improved by leaps and bounds since the 80s/early 90s imo. Athletes, over time, get bigger, stronger, and even more athletic. The area that impacts the most is defense. The league as a whole shoots a much lower FG% today than they used to. Critics like to say "well thats because they can't shoot well anymore", but thats untrue- If you look at FT% or 3 point shooting competitions you'll see that today's players shoot just as well.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:03 PM   #3702
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Is the FG% also down because a higher % of attempts are threes?
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:10 PM   #3703
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Is the FG% also down because a higher % of attempts are threes?
TS% and eFG% are essentially the same from 79-80 to now. There were dips in the late 90s/early 00s.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:18 PM   #3704
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Nance was so sick. In the late 80's I used to tape the Chi games and watch the Dallas games, then watch the Chi game after--where were you then DVR!?! When I moved into my house last fall I found all those Chi tapes and there were some epic Cle games--and Nance was so fun to watch.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:22 PM   #3705
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Nance was so sick. In the late 80's I used to tape the Chi games and watch the Dallas games, then watch the Chi game after--where were you then DVR!?! When I moved into my house last fall I found all those Chi tapes and there were some epic Cle gamesthose teams were pretty good and Nance was so fun to watch.
edit your post man
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:23 PM   #3706
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Edited.

Thanks Bobbo!
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:28 PM   #3707
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Oh ****. I completely forgot about names! Sorry about that.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:30 PM   #3708
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

i have to say, the rule that you get everyone at 24 is somewhat ridiculous. why not just get everyone at whatever age you want?
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:30 PM   #3709
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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The whole point of this is that if you win with an ugly style, you will still sell out if you have a semi legit fan base.
no the point is a team in nyc will get fans regardless.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:31 PM   #3710
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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i have to say, the rule that you get everyone at 24 is somewhat ridiculous. why not just get everyone at whatever age you want?
ya im pretty sure we're just ignoring this stipulation at this point. some of the highest picks arent even 24.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:33 PM   #3711
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

If they're not 24 you get them at the age their present age.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:33 PM   #3712
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

The rule is 24, unless they came into the league after 24, in which case you get them at that age, or unless they are currently active and less than 24, in which case you get them now.

It's a big deal that impacted values of some guys like Kemp.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:35 PM   #3713
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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TS% and eFG% are essentially the same from 79-80 to now. There were dips in the late 90s/early 00s.
This would suggest to me that the decline in FG% is misleading, and not due to superior defenses.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:35 PM   #3714
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I guess, but its still bunk.

3 months early in the regular season are just not enough to extrapolate a career from. And if you do (which is BS IMO), its @ a 35 game/year rate anyway because you can't deny that during the entire course of the sample, he played 35/82 reg. season games and 0 playoff games.
Why not? I'm not saying it is, but I think you guys need to examine what it is that's important about sample size.

You don't stake a guy on a 200 hand heater because the variance of dealing cards from an independently shuffled deck is ginormous. But what if you saw him make 5 astute laydowns and turn a marginal made hand into a bluff in a great spot? Wouldn't that at least influence your opinion a bit?

What if you saw him dunk repeatedly on NBA teams, and the rest of the time it looks like Kareem is controlling him with a PS3 controller from behind the Laker's bench?

How many 100m races does someone have to win against world-class competition before you'd say he's an elite sprinter?

What about this silly horse that's like a 1:10 favorite for the Preakness after winning basically 1 big race? Don't you need to see the horse run for at least 6 more years before making that sort of call?

"OMG SAMPLE SIZE" isn't a complete argument. QED.

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or pervis ellison.
Is this the last gasp at counter-examples? I'd hope not. I'm still having fun.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:35 PM   #3715
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

i understand the rule, i'm saying the rule is ridiculous. the spirit is to get them at the start of their peak, why not let the owner decide.

edit: really it makes no sense to punish a player for peaking early... that just strikes me as absurd.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:36 PM   #3716
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

The hand check rule and the illegal defense somewhat cancel each other out.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:37 PM   #3717
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

I agree the rule is odd, but it was agreed to and it has affected how people are drafting. Nothing to really be done about it now.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:40 PM   #3718
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by HighStakesPro View Post
This would suggest to me that the decline in FG% is misleading, and not due to superior defenses.
Well if TS% has stayed consistent despite better defense, doesn't that mean FT% has gone up? Thus, aren't shooters better?

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I agree the rule is odd, but it was agreed to and it has affected how people are drafting. Nothing to really be done about it now.
(About the 24 year old rule)...yeah it sucks for me, but it's a rule we agreed on so it's how it goes.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:43 PM   #3719
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

You really don't need much to figure out ts% and efg%, I'll do it for the entire era and post results in graph form.
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Old 05-17-2008, 05:51 PM   #3720
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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You really don't need much to figure out ts% and efg%, I'll do it for the entire era and post results in graph form.
This isn't what I'd do. IMO, the goal of defense is to make the opponent take a low EV shot. This usually means some sort of 2-pt jumpshot. Does the data exist from back then to break out FGAs by type/%? This is the first place I'd look to compare across eras.
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Old 05-17-2008, 06:08 PM   #3721
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by xorbie View Post
i have to say, the rule that you get everyone at 24 is somewhat ridiculous. why not just get everyone at whatever age you want?
I thought about doing it your way. If you would've brought this up before the draft and people liked your idea, I would've definitely gone with it.
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Old 05-17-2008, 06:12 PM   #3722
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Well if TS% has stayed consistent despite better defense, doesn't that mean FT% has gone up? Thus, aren't shooters better?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
I've been through this before, but....

You are right that rules have been changed to help offense, but defense has improved by leaps and bounds since the 80s/early 90s imo. Athletes, over time, get bigger, stronger, and even more athletic. The area that impacts the most is defense. The league as a whole shoots a much lower FG% today than they used to. Critics like to say "well thats because they can't shoot well anymore", but thats untrue- If you look at FT% or 3 point shooting competitions you'll see that today's players shoot just as well.
FT% has stayed the same. eFG% does not factor in FT% anyway. If FG% is lower but eFG% is the same, it means players are taking more threes. This is by no means evidence that improved defenses are forcing players to take lower EV shots.
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Old 05-17-2008, 06:15 PM   #3723
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

I can do 2pt shots and 3pt shots by percentage

Points Scored / 100 poss has stayed pretty constant in the era. High of 108, low of 102 (lockout year). Stayed between 103-108 all other years.

TS% was highest in the mid 80s and has recently reached those levels again (about .540). It hit its lowest from 1998-2005 where it averaged about .520.

eFG and 2pt % follow the same way. ft% is mostly random. 3p% has more or less steadily increased. Pace dropped constantly until 1995 or so, then has levelled off at about 90 poss/game.

Oh, and FT% is lower than it was in the 80s. It was at its lowest from 1993-1999 and has gotten back up, but it's still about a 10 point difference (.76 to .75)
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Old 05-17-2008, 06:26 PM   #3724
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by kbfc View Post
This isn't what I'd do. IMO, the goal of defense is to make the opponent take a low EV shot. This usually means some sort of 2-pt jumpshot. Does the data exist from back then to break out FGAs by type/%? This is the first place I'd look to compare across eras.
Or you can just do what Dallas does and voluntarily take some sort of 2-pt jump shot.
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Old 05-17-2008, 06:30 PM   #3725
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Anyone think pairing carmelo with avery johnson as a coach would bea good idea? Avery would discipline him so hard
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