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Old 05-16-2008, 12:13 AM   #3001
Assani Fisher
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by SHARK DOCTOR View Post
Why does that even matter?

I didnt want Stock...even though Stock had one of the best (most consistent) careers for any PG...this doesnt automatically put the Paul pick as a reach imo.

All of these players will be starting their careers all over, and I strongly believe CP3 was the most talented PG available.

Yea - Stock put up great numbers...but I think Paul is the better guy to start a franchise with....and its not just because Paul can use both his left and right hand when laying up. I dont know why I have to keep justifying this pick, check my initial explanation...but Paul is a one of a kind player...he creates plays like only a handful of players have been able to do (for himself and his teammates)...he is rediculously dangerous offensively and defensively.

Now - if the argument is whether we should opt for career stats over a young player who has yet to have over 4 years of service in the NBA...then I ask for why? (if anything - Paul should be an exception to this train of thought)

Ive seen people make the arguement that theres a good chance he will fall off the face of the planet like DWade has (btw - one off year doesnt equate to DWade being done)...but ask yourself this....how many players have had a season like Chris Pauls and totally vanished???...or even suffered a severe decline???? I guarantee there are (at least) 10 times as many players who have had this kindve season and have continued to have great careers then have actually vanish from super stardom. Basketball-reference all you want - I know you guys cant find it. And if your arguments are really about Chris Paul possibly playing the rest of his career at an avaerage or below avaerage level - than youre just trying to find an argument where there is none.
I didn't mind your pick at first, but others have convinced me that Stockton is clearly the better pick. Injury concern differences between the two and the fact that Stockton has actually done it already are the deciding factors for me.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:16 AM   #3002
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by MEbenhoe View Post
I'm meh on the Wallace pick. Obvious plus, his 27-31 peak defensively is absolutely sick. Cons: short peak and at an odd time period, got owned at times by the top Centers in the league aka Shaq, absolutely zero offensive game
agree with this analysis completely
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:18 AM   #3003
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by MEbenhoe View Post
only because you obv overrate deron
I'm trying to understand your argument against Deron and I just can't seem to understand it. All you've said is that "hes young, some young players fall off, so Deron could fall off" which seems like an incredibly weak argument to me.

Maybe PM me the guys you're thinking of that put up huge numbers early like Deron, got better every year like Deron, weren't injury prone like Deron, and then fell off because I'm just not seeing them.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:18 AM   #3004
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

how is having one injury and having one season where he played 64 games in make him injury prone?....I notice some people are desperately reacching with their argument.

And yes - calling Paul injury prone is reaching.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:20 AM   #3005
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by DontRaisePlz View Post
Gut says to hate the Ben Wallace pick but I had to compare him to Dennis Rodman to see for sure. Lesser rebounder and manages to be .072 points lower in TS%. At least Rodman shoots free throws well enough not be hacked in end game.
Wallace was better on D though.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:25 AM   #3006
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by MEbenhoe View Post
I'm meh on the Wallace pick. Obvious plus, his 27-31 peak defensively is absolutely sick. Cons: short peak and at an odd time period, got owned at times by the top Centers in the league aka Shaq, absolutely zero offensive game
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...1&p2=wallabe01

for the record, ben career wise over 22 games (decent sample) held shaq to 26/10.2/3 on 58.5% fg shooting and 8.4 fta per game. considering his career average over that stretch is 25.2/11.5/2.7 on 58% shooting and 10 fta per game, I think ben had very little defensive presence on shaq. this is no knock to him, obv, since he's a mega defender, but there just isnt ANYONE who matched up well on shaq.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:26 AM   #3007
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
I'm trying to understand your argument against Deron and I just can't seem to understand it. All you've said is that "hes young, some young players fall off, so Deron could fall off" which seems like an incredibly weak argument to me.

Maybe PM me the guys you're thinking of that put up huge numbers early like Deron, got better every year like Deron, weren't injury prone like Deron, and then fell off because I'm just not seeing them.
I think I know the player he's thinking of (Meb's a Bucks fan, right?), but yeah, I'd say it's the exception rather than the rule.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:27 AM   #3008
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by van_exel_fan View Post
Yea but if you think about it, if we had this draft immediately following the '06 Finals, Dwayne Wade would have gone right where Chris Paul went in this draft (if not closer to LeBron). The guy who picked D-Wade would argue to the death that Wade would never decline and keep saying "did you see the Finals?". Now in this draft (2 years later) he went 25th and he may wind up like the first amazing guard who ever played with Shaq...

Why can't D-Will, Chris Bosh, CP3, even LBJ wind up like Wade or worse?

And I would've pointed out that Wade had missed 33 games in his first 3 years and was a huge injury risk due to his aggressive style of play. So its not surprising that Wade ended up being injured.

You guys are trying to compare that situation with Deron Williams, who has missed 4 games in 3 years and doesn't absorb nearly that amount of contact.

Last edited by Assani Fisher; 05-16-2008 at 12:45 AM.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:30 AM   #3009
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by DontRaisePlz View Post
I always considered help defense "post defense" in that the center or PF or big man is an anchor in the post, protecting the rim. IMO, the best low post guys won't be stopped by the best low post defenders, they will be double teamed. This is why Kwame Brown (known for good man defense and sluggish help defense) still sucks at D.
was just gonna respond with something like this.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:34 AM   #3010
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by capone0 View Post
If you can build a team with a bunch of high volume/shooters scorers I guess it could work. Then again AI and another big scorer, didn't work well at all.
I feel like we unfairly critisize a lot of the Western teams this year....its not their fault they played in the most stacked conference of all time. To win 50+ in that conference meant they were a good team imo.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:35 AM   #3011
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by sergsz View Post
Of course, it's a gamble, and that's fine. What I am arguing is that it is lower EV gamble than most people realize. Chances of Deron declining slightly or running into injury problems are slightly greater than the chances of him maintaing current level of production for 7-8 years, and the chances of him maintaining are much greater than the chances of him improving greatly and hanging on to those improvement for several years. And if Deron just maintains his current level of production, he is a pretty good player, but not an "OMG I can't believe he lasted this late in the draft player." A 20 PER PG with crappy defense is certainly a useful player, and good value here, but I donn't understand the "he's been BPA for 5-10 picks" comments.
But thats not what we're doing here. Yes Deron could suffer a freak injury, BUT UNLESS HE IS INJURY PRONE THAN HE IS NO MORE LIKELY TO SUFFER A FREAK INJURY IN OUR LEAGUE THAN STOCKTON, JORDAN, MALONE, OR ANYONE ELSE.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:38 AM   #3012
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

The problem is, we DON'T know if Deron is injury prone or not. We KNOW that Stockton, Jordan, Malone aren't. HUGE difference.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:42 AM   #3013
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
But thats not what we're doing here. Yes Deron could suffer a freak injury, BUT UNLESS HE IS INJURY PRONE THAN HE IS NO MORE LIKELY TO SUFFER A FREAK INJURY IN OUR LEAGUE THAN STOCKTON, JORDAN, MALONE, OR ANYONE ELSE.
Of course he is more likely to suffer an injury than Stockton. Staying injury-free (or almost injury-free) for 19 years is a MUCH more reliable indicator of durability than staying injury-free for 3 years.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:43 AM   #3014
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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The problem is, we DON'T know if Deron is injury prone or not. We KNOW that Stockton, Jordan, Malone aren't. HUGE difference.
Deron ain't no biiitch yo. D-Wade always has been. HUGE difference.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:44 AM   #3015
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Sergz put it better. I'm not dissing Deron, or anything.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:44 AM   #3016
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Other extremely talented, non injury prone players simply became attitude problems and while they stay/ed productive and put up big numbers, they are always detrimental to any team they play for. How can we be sure a young guy won't become like that?
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:45 AM   #3017
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

lol @ at naming Jordan, Stockton, and Malone...**** I should have taken them w/ my 48th? pick. Seriously, wtf are you people talking about? You guys are talking about timepieces that set the standard of excellence in all facets of the game--we are well past these types of players.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:46 AM   #3018
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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The problem is, we DON'T know if Deron is injury prone or not. We KNOW that Stockton, Jordan, Malone aren't. HUGE difference.
Playing 242/246 games in 3 years, we almost know he's not injury prone.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:47 AM   #3019
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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The problem is, we DON'T know if Deron is injury prone or not. We KNOW that Stockton, Jordan, Malone aren't. HUGE difference.
You don't really KNOW that Stockton, Jordan, and Malone aren't either. Its quite possible that someone who is injury prone could luck out and stay injury free for one career.

Nothing about Deron leads me to believe that he is injury prone, so I'm certainly not going to downgrade him based on the possibility that someone who has missed 4 games in 3 years and has a good solid build is suddenly going to become injury prone.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:48 AM   #3020
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I feel like we unfairly critisize a lot of the Western teams this year....its not their fault they played in the most stacked conference of all time. To win 50+ in that conference meant they were a good team imo.
True. Too bad the home teams blow out the road teams in every damn playoff game.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:53 AM   #3021
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Round 2, Pick #51: Carmelo Anthony


-Led Syracuse to NCAA title and then was selected 3rd in the 2003 NBA Draft (lol, wonder how long 'til Darko gets picked in this)
-Unanimous All-Rookie First Team
-Second in NBA Rookie of the Year voting to LeBron James (whom he significantly outscored and outrebounded that year)
-Two time All-Star (lotta great forwards in the West)
-Scored at least 20 points in each of his first five seasons (in this slower paced NBA, that's huge), and he's scored 25+ each of the last three (and he's still not 24)

Plain and simple, this guy's a dynamic scoring machine (27 ppg over his last three seasons). He constantly commands a double-team and he's good for 6 rebounds a game (7.4 this past year). He's a poor man's LeBron out of that draft, but not by much. How he slipped this far is beyond me. Career 19.9 PER, but he's gone for 22, 22, and 21 the last three seasons since he's started to come into his own.

The scary thing is there is absolutely no reason to believe that he won't continue to get better and better as he moves into his first 24+ season next year. Having him on the floor makes your team a substantial offensive threat.

Paired with Yao, my team is gonna score (as long as I can put more useful pieces around these guys than the Rockets put around Yao and T-Mac).

Team So Far: Yao Ming, Carmelo Anthony

NoPairParker, you are on the clock
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:53 AM   #3022
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
You don't really KNOW that Stockton, Jordan, and Malone aren't either. Its quite possible that someone who is injury prone could luck out and stay injury free for one career.

Nothing about Deron leads me to believe that he is injury prone, so I'm certainly not going to downgrade him based on the possibility that someone who has missed 4 games in 3 years and has a good solid build is suddenly going to become injury prone.
I don't think he should be downgraded either. But if you rate players on a 0-10 durability scale, Malone and Stockton would be a 10. Deron would be like an 8.5 imo. Way above averge, but you don't have enough data points to confidently put him in the top tier of the most durable players. And if you actually have to assign a probability to a player being injured in any given season, Deron's probability would have to be higher than Stockton's, though it would be lower than of most players in the league.

Anyway, this is a pretty esoteric argument and has very little to do with why I thought Deron wasn't the huge steal people were making him out to be. I certainly didn't downgrade him for lack of durability.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:55 AM   #3023
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Carmelo is solid but unspectacular value at this point imo. Like the pairing with Yao.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:55 AM   #3024
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Carmelo and Yao, two "black holes" on offense.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:55 AM   #3025
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I don't think he should be downgraded either. But if you rate players on a 0-10 durability scale, Malone and Stockton would be a 10. Deron would be like an 8.5 imo. Way above averge, but you don't have enough data points to confidently put him in the top tier of the most durable players. And if you actually have to assign a probability to a player being injured in any given season, Deron's probability would have to be higher than Stockton's, though it would be lower than of most players in the league.

Anyway, this is a pretty esoteric argument and has very little to do with why I thought Deron wasn't the huge steal people were making him out to be. I certainly didn't downgrade him for lack of durability.
Ok, I'll agree with you on that.

I still find Deron to be the biggest steal of the draft so far....until my next pick at least!!!
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