Young is probably around the 5th best player in his draft class and I will prop bet you assani

5th best? Well Oden/Durant/Horford obviously....

So basically you're prop betting me that one out of every other rookie will end up better than Thaddeus? LOL....ummmm yeah I agree with you there that its more likely that ONE OF THEM end up better. However, to actually pick one of them is much tough...its not like I could've chosen every one of them instead of TY with my pick.


JoA, so what if Young isn't a great bulk scorer. Hes going to be my 7th man. Post all star break he put up just under 11 points per game in 26.5 minutes on JUST UNDER 60% TS!!!! In this league I get him at the beginning of his next season, so he'll only be improved. But even ignoring improvement, I'll gladly take 11 points on 60% TS from this draft pick, especially when you add in the fact that he rarely turns it over, defends well(without fouling I might add), and gives me potential upside of a superstar.


For the fourth time now I'll ask: What do you see as the worst case scenario for TY barring injury?

You all seem to want to bash the pick, but nobody will answer that question. I think its because you all realize that his worst case scenario is still a decent player who can contribute as my 7th man. Its hard to not like defense and efficiency from a 19 year old.

Another way of looking at it is that DC is viewed as a career bust at #1 overall and still went in the 3rd round.

I might be biased, but I think Thaddeus is really really good. Two things that might not mean that much but I'd like to point out anyway:

1. The Sixers didn't run any plays for him until very late in the year so he got most of his points of putbacks and broken plays.

2. Chad Ford, John Hollinger, and Bill Simmons are all very high on him.

I kept asking this question when (iirc) Chris Paul and Kevin Durant were drafted and no one really gave me a legitimate answer either. People just fall back on injuries and "well, he's not proven" instead of actually thinking about the expected career path of a young player.

Thaddeus Young has played only 1500 minutes. There are guys out there who provide similar rates of efficiency but have already proven themselves as durable and consistent players. But wait, Assani isn't basing his pick on 1500 minutes, he's basing it on 769 minutes.

Also, how am I supposed to say who the worst case scenario for TY is? He obviously hasn't been drafted yet. If I would've said the worst case scenario for Durant was Jerry Stackhouse, I would've been yelled at.

There are plenty of guys who've had similar years to Thaddeus, though I suppose most of them were a couple of years older. Some of them don't seem to have been too special.

alex,

I like Thad. I think he's a good player. He'll probably continue to be. As for point 2, 2 of 3 of those guys are jokes. Chad Ford really?

that being said, it's really a hard question to answer ESPECIALLY if you have to ignore injuries. But here's a stab at it: Durant could be JR Rider. Thad I can't answer as my comparisons are undrafted.

We're not looking for specific players necesarily, but statswise.

I'm not sure if your last sentence was how you really feel or just an example of your point, but if Durant's worst case is a guy who was taken 11 picks later, that's gotta be the steal of the draft by far.

well Stack was a bad pick

oh yeah as for Paul, I was less hateful on that pick as he is a true stud, but his worst case might be some combo of Isiah/Wade (should Wade continue declining and I've got strong reason to think he will).

exactly. And while there are a few cases of where a player showed tremendous potential and didn't fulfill it, almost all of them are either headcases, got injured, or really weren't that good(putting up high PPG on really low efficiency for example).

Now could TY turn out to be injury prone? Sure. However, how much are you going to penalize him for maybe the 5% chance that he turns out to be injury prone?

Could he turn out to be a headcase? Eh, he was a 4.0 GPA in college, so I kinda doubt that. But sure, maybe a 0.1% shot at him turning into a JR Rider.



But while there are these small chances of this happening, the great majority of the time players who come into the league at 19 and play well will continue to improve during their first few years before hitting their prime around maybe age 23 or so and then having a 5-6 year peak before falling off.


TY put up 8 points on 57% TS. During the 2nd half of the season it improved to 11 points on 59.5% TS, so hes making improvments.

I think its much more likely that he continues to improve these next few years than him suddenly falling off. And even with only marginal improvments, that'd make him a very good pick at this point imo.

+a million


And even still, Durant's efficiency improvement over the course of his ROOKIE year at such a young age tells me that he'll be better than Stackhouse for sure barring injuries/turning into a headcase/etc.

I think people are polarizing Thad. I don't think he's the best pick for that type of player, but he's not bad either. FWIW I think he's the best remaining player from his draft class, but there are a few 2nd and 3rd year players I like better.

I think this is the case where someone trying to "sell" their pick (A steal Assani? really?) has caused others to hate it more than perhaps they should have.

Jerry Stackhouse was a terrible pick though. But in general, I think that in this draft, we've overvalued young proven players, and undervaluing young unproven players. JoA points out that he thinks that there are guys available that have similar stats to current players but over a larger sample. That's true, but you're not drafting these guys expecting them to be the same player, but are expecting a normal career progression, which in most cases is an upwing from their rookie year. You can keep throwing out guys who regressed or never lived up to their potential, but it's just as easy to point to guys taken in the first few rounds who got a lot better after their rookie year. I don't know if there's any basketball projection systems like their are for baseball, but I'd have to think you can better than throw your hands in the air and say that you have only 1500 minutes and you must assume the worst case scenario.

T. Young 5 years from now:

Best case: 20+ ppg, 60+% TS, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 2.5 steals, 0.5 blocks

Worse case: 10 ppg, 55% TS, 4 rebounds, <1 assist, 1 steal, 0.1 blocks

Most likely case: 15 ppg, 57% TS, 6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.3 blocks


Thats ignoring defense where TY has had one very solid year already and has great natural athleticism and defensive potential to improve. Also a smart guy who seems to have leadership qualities(4.0 GPA).

edit: This is ignoring injuries or personal issues, which I'll admit are maybe a 5% shot of happening and greatly affecting these projections.

Eh, read the comments before I even posted my writeup or any commentary though....seems like they were negative from the start.

Here Seadood, look at the comments made before I even posted anything about Young:

And yes I stand by "steal." Imo if we did this draft again 3 years from now I could easily see both Young and Durant going 100 picks earlier...imo that equals big steal.

Understood Assani, but a rebuttal of "I simply don't see how he's not a steal at this point" sounds very Epip to me (where is he btw?). Perhaps it's because that phrase, along with "I'm shocked he's fallen this far" annoys me the most in these write-ups.

At any rate, I think the only horrible picks are players that can seriously hurt your team in some form or another. Obviously Thad isn't that guy, and he does have upside, so go figure. I still prefer a couple of young'ns in that role, but Thad is by no means as bad as many are claiming.

Oh and I also wanted to add that your argument for Thaddeus is pretty convincing fwiw. You bring up some valid points. and that's not a level, real talk.

Fair enough Seadood, although to be fair its not like I say that about every pick like EPip. For example, I fully realized that Outlaw was a solid player who may have even been a reach but he fit my team really well imo. Moreover my rebuttal was a lot more detailed than just that. I just happen to think that hes a steal at this point honestly. Perhaps though it was/is unecessary to mention that as it just detracts from the actual debate.

With Young, I pretty much agree with Alex that too many people are going overboard on the "OMG hes unproven and theres a 1/20 chance that he completely sucks after this year!!!" type of thinking.

He almost wasn't there. If I didn't go with a 3 point specialist at the guard spot I was gonna take him. Good pick.

I mean, it's the 7th round and all, and I don't really see a huge problem with the pick, just letting you know that there were probably better players available.

Also, I get kind of weary about getting too worked up about potential. Might just be my nature.

JoA,


I don't think I'm "getting worked up about potential" though. TY put up solid stats in the first half of his 19 year old rookie year and then improved them in the 2nd half. I think its very likely that he at least SLIGHTLY improves on those 2nd half numbers before he enters his prime. Do you disagree with that?

And if he only SLIGHTLY IMPROVES then I'm getting a player with better output than several drafted already!

As far as better players available, as always feel free to mention it when they get drafted.

Assani,

The argument "in 3 years I could easily see him and durant go 100 spots higher" is very bad because we will have much more information there. I could easily seem them doing so too, and I can also see them both going 100 rounds later (Young not at all, Durant late in the 7th or so)

I think Young is an all right pick tbh as I think he had a good rookie season and could easily become a good little player.

Worse case scnerario in 5 years-
Out of basketball/totally ineffective

best case scenario-
someone like chris mullin (saying only in terms of value for the position only, not on what his game will look like)

most likely-
someone like hedo turkuglu

The question is what the distribution of outcomes is, but I think you got reasonable value, and think he'll probably end up with comprable value to donyell marshall

I don't think you understand the meaning of "worst case". I mean, his floor is really 55% TS%? Really? GMAFB.

Worse case scnerario in 5 years-
Out of basketball/totally ineffective


Barring injuries or him going from no offcourt issues to a complete headcase I don't see how you can think this. Can you give an example of any player who has ever gone from around 10 points on 57% TS as a 19 year old and then just gotten inexplicably worse as he entered his young/mid 20s?