That quote is 100% about Thad, and thinking that it referred to both players is pretty funny.

Writeup coming now, would appriciate it if you can edit it in the other thread. Thanks.

The quote he used has a reference to hodges in it in the first line. He should've edited out the hodges part to make it clear.

nevermind, I'll just post it in that thread myself, as nobody else has posted there yet

I just did.

Pick is up. Donyell Marshall.

Donyell Marshall is... another guy who is better than I thought he would be. Mostly because he looks like Aaron Neville.

oh cmon now, I agree the pick was bad but thats hyperbole at its finest.

I'm a little disappointed in KC's pick of Donny. Not because it's a bad pick, but because I was expecting a face melter and not one of the obvious BPA's. Oh well, Donyell is a very solid pick. Pretty good on both sides of the ball, and a terrific guy on and off the court.

Seadood,

I've put my face melter on hold as I got the snake coming up and he'll likely be available, whereas Donyell filled a clear need and might not have been.

agreed, but I think I agree that I'm not sure he'll be the best undrafted guy out of this class. Might be close. But who knows as he's played all of 1500 minutes.

writeup posted

I would prop bet anyone:

If we do this draft in 2 or 3 years from now, Thaddeus Young will be taken higher than he was taken in this draft. Obviously I wouldn't be able to pick him.


If you think it was a bad pick here, then this should be +EV for you.


Complete honor system in that I promise I won't try to convince other people to draft him and you do the same thing regarding convincing them to not take him.

We can say that about a lot of guys, though, some who haven't been picked yet.

I'm not doing a 3 year prop bet on something so stupid, but if I would, I'd bet a couple of yet to be drafted guys would get picked higher than Thad.

haha.....

I know that some random dude's blog isn't proof of anything, but I found this funny considering the pick right after me:



Thaddeus Young

Strengths: springs, wings, and other fast-twitch things
Weaknesses: raw, weak handle, name of a 18th century infantry soldier

NBA Comparison (best-case): Paul Pierce
NBA Comparison (worst-case): Donyell Marshall
NBA Comparison (most likely): Caron Butler


http://theblowtorch.blogspot.com/200...young-man.html

I don't get it....if its a bad pick then he should go lower once we know more about him, no? Conversely if its a good pick, then he'll go higher. If there are undrafted players who will go higher in a few years, then you should draft them.

Just because "OMG hes only played X number of minutes" doesn't mean we can't make educated guesses, and if our educated guesses lead us to believe that they are better than more proven players then we should take them.

your "educated guess" is wholly without any negative variables. If we had the choice to make the same educated guesses without knowing what their future held, Sampson and Manning would have been first rounders. Derrick Coleman wouldn't be a mid 3rd rounder. Same with McDyess.

My point is, using your very logic, this probably wasn't an optimum pick.

I'd give you your choice of any one player from that draft class who has not yet been drafted(Oden doesn't count obviously as hes ineligible) and I'd bet Thad goes higher if we ever redo this at any time.

Doesn't have to be a big $$ amount, so no escrow or anything needed. Just let me know who you want after they've been drafted.

i just said I'm not doing it. You dense? Just stick to bragging rights as there's no sense in betting $50 over 3 years or whatever.

And for every Coleman or McDyess theres a guy who didn't show all that much promise in their first year(TMac, Jermain O Neal, etc.) but then became a star. It goes both ways. Yes Young could end up much worse than his numbers indicate. He could also end up much better. But ODDS ARE that he ends up as his numbers would indicate.


But as I asked in the writeup: Barring injury, what exactly do you see as his worst case scenario? Imo no matter what happens he'll be a good defender who is efficient on offense. Hes already done both of those things at age 19, so I don't see how you can claim that he won't be able to continue to do them once he gets experience. How many plus defenders who are efficient on offense are even left to be taken?

If I thought I would lose, I wouldn't bet either. If I thought I'd win, theres really no downside to giving it a go.

Nice.. the "you chicken?" 3rd-grader goad. I'd lay the bet if it was 100%. It's not. Probably closer to 60/40. Not worth it and I'm not interested. Deal.

As for D, he wasn't good dude. Not trying to take anything away from him or saying he won't become good, but he wasn't. I know adjusted +/- likes him but Philly wasn't exactly deep at the F spots, plus adj +/- has major sample size issues and 1500 minutes doesn't help.

His D-rtg was 106 on a very good defensive team (8th in the league). That's not good. His 82games data shows him giving up large PERs at both forward spots where he normally played. http://www.82games.com/0708/07PHI9C.HTM

Young is definitely a plus defender. Not really sure what those numbers mean though I admit.

and yes I am breaking out the "you chicken" goad since its a measley $50 or so and you havn't really explained why turning down a 60/40(according to you) is a good thing to do.

And again I'll ask you the question about his worst case scenario barring injury. Can anyone who dislikes this pick actually answer this question? Is there any prescendent(sp?) of a guy playing that well at age 19 and then completely falling off(not counting injuries)???

edit: undrafted guy of course, so I can't answer

by the way... it's not like Thaddeus Young played that *well*. I did a full court search for players who in their rookie season put up a 15 PER, and Thaddeus Young had the least points of any of them (610 pts total).

I'd say there are two more rookies better than Thaddeus if we limit it to "young rookies."