Quote:
Originally Posted by capone0
Who is going to decide this? This is the problem with these type of players and young players, who is going to make the decision? Are we going to roll dice to finger out what they are what they aren't going to do?
Obviously it will be up to each voter to decide these things, but a lot of it depends on how logical a case the owner can make for his players. I feel that the argument for Nash and Bowen is a lot more persuasive than the argument for someone like Tarpley or Marburry.
Let me elaborate a little here. With a player like Tarpley, the main issues are injuries / addiction. Whether these things are genetically or environmentally determined, the propensities are pretty much set in stone by the time you get the player at 24, so you can't expect him to be much healthier or better-behaved than he was in real life.
With Marbury, the argument that HSP made was that it was all a matter of fit and coaching. This argument has potential, since that is not a part of the player's inherent makeup. However, this argument doesn not work well for Marbury because he never performed well as a leader of a team no matter what setting he was in. Is there a hypothetical setting where Marbury could have blossomed? Maybe, but the evidence is lacking, so the argument is a bit of a stretch (or, for the probabilistically-minded, you can assume that there is a small % that Marbury actually blossoms in this league, but most likely he will play the way he did in the NBA).
For Nash and Bowen, the issue is also fit / coaching (coaching in the sense of how the player was utilized). But in these cases, you have very convincing real life examples that the player could thrive in the right system. You have to decide what is more likely - that they player developed new skills late in his career (extremely unusual), or that the change in performance / playing time was the result of being properly utilized and being in the right system (seems a lot more likely). This is why I think that it's OK to assume similar career arcs to real life for most players, but that Bowen and Nash are valid exceptions.
Last edited by sergsz; 06-13-2008 at 05:13 PM.