Quote:
Originally Posted by ggbman
A couple of random thoughts...
1.) I feel that people have generally overrated the importance of offensive effeciency stats on the whole. I would make the argument that it's easier for dominant scorers with average efficiency to be more effective in this format than super efficient role players to extrapolate their #'s by playing more minutes. A lot of these guys just played on really medicore teams where they were the only option and should really be much more efficient when surrounded by a lot of talent. I admit to not being super knowledgable about all of these stats, but I have a pretty good feel for them and just think they make some very good players seem less appealing than they should be because they didn't play on well rounded teams.
I disagree with the bolded statement. From what I've seen, inefficient high scoring players do not change much when they become less needed. From an offensive standpoint, I think that many of the drafted teams are putting too much weight on having a team full of scorers, no matter how inefficient they may be.
I took the top scorers who've been in the league for at least 10 years, and broke them down into two categories: The first being the top 12 PPG scorers (draft eligible) who had a True Shooting Percentage under .540, and the second being the top 12 players who shot over .540.
Group I
Allen Iverson, Dominique Wilkins, Vince Carter, Tracy Macgrady, Chris Webber, Stephon Marbury, Antawnn Jamison, Isiah Thomas, Jerry Stackhouse, Tim Hardaway, undrafted guy, Baron Davis.
Group II
Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Shaquille O'neal, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce, Larry Bird, Kevin Mchale, Hakeem , Charles Barkley, David Robinson
While this is a crude measurement, it's not hard to see that group II has undoubtedly been the much more successful group as far as team wins are concerned. If you continue to go down the list for these, you'll see similar patterns. I would have gone further, except many of the players in group II have (rightfully) gone undrafted.
I think efficient scoring is even more important in this league. None of these teams is going to be able to compete with the great squads 1-3, but from their 4th man down, these drafted teams are going to have a huge edge. This curtails the need for someone who can score in bulk, unless that person is more efficient than his options and has the basketball IQ to pass it to them. We should be able to find smarter players given the size of the pool, so there is less need for a player who can create for himself. If you've got an inefficient scorer who doesn't pass that often, he's going to be huge detriment to your team, even if your only other option is a role player who doesn't shoot enough. There is less need to be "the guy" on these teams because, once again theoretically, you should be able to put together a team that knows how to create high percentage situations as a group.
I think the most underrated traits in this draft so far have been efficient scorers who like to pass. If you've got a guy who can draw opposing defenders, he's going to put his teammates in situations that offer higher percentage scoring opportunities, higher than he can manufacture on his own.
Last edited by ClarkNasty; 06-06-2008 at 11:08 AM.