sry lil' bach but you're outclassed here. time for me to turn on the condescension. brrrrrrrrrrrrr.
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FOR THE RECORD YOU OBVIOUSLY NEED TO ****ING PUT THE INJURIES IN YOUR ODDS ASSUMPTION. There is no 'what if' for injuries, because they're very real.
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So you think it's less than 1 in 100 he makes NO improvement? This is ludicrous. You can't imagine that he's at the top of his shooting form, will not add muscle to his little body, and w. all the scouting on him he wont raise his game to beat this? I'm not saying I think this will happen often - I too think he will be BETTER - but for you to call this 1% shows just how little you know about player progression.
Re: Cassell v Durant. This is obviously a pretty even contest. This year Sam-I-Am was better than Kevin Durant, but it was close. Not sure why you'd want to argue this though.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...anke01&y2=2008
So, basically, Sam Cassell played fewer mins, and while playing them, decided to shoot at a below average clip. KD shot even MORE often at the same poor clip, all the while playing worse defense. Rebounding is pretty similar, but Cassell has the edge bigtime in passing.
Per 36 has the small edge to KD in scoring (on 3 more FGA/game), small edge to KD in rebounding, KD turns it over a little more (more TOs than AST) etc.
Again, this year they were fairly similar players.
I think KD
likely (i.e. ~50%) will turn into one of those near-star type guys. But it's just as likely he doesn't. (coin flip cuz)