I vote against coaches.

+1

vote against coaches

PER is very valid. so are loss shares. so are every other metric.

lol, nicely done.

I wouldnt take him above any of those guys FWIW

pay that man, pay that man his money
this is redic. redic. he has a lower floor. for sure.

I think thisi s well said and i agree.

i think it's unfair to categorize guys like deng and butler as roleplayers tho. they;re stars/sorta.

i doubt it, moncrief won 2 DPOYs and was easy to tabulate even w/o stats. Natt for sure would be unpicked tho

this

He basically needs to pick up a few points in some combination of rebounds and assists and a couple of tenths in TS% to be equivalent to them. Isn't that expected for just about every rookie, let alone a 19 year old with his talent and potential? Also, his usage is already higher than both of theirs.

hahaha

what pickup game do you play in? my games every other possession is a 3, but most are contested jumpers because people are ****ing stupid.

or just draft phil jackson outright?

I agree w/ Dudd, im all for the absurdity of the draft, lets include coaches.

High usage is not a good thing, alex.

he has a long way to go to equal AI2's defense or Johnson's passing ability etc.

i mean, those guys are all stars or near all stars. you're saying the WORST durant will be is a 2time+ all star/max type contract. the WORST.

absolutely not, the worst is him stagnating and being a chucker who is fairly pedestrian at scoring and sub-avg at every other main component of winning basketball.

Just the game at my gym, here in Phoenix. And its the same here - jacking up 3s like its going out of style. Its sort of frustratingly boring for me, I really just do it for the exercise and I still find it much more intersting than just running. Twos and ones + college 3 = craptacular jackfest.

College 3 line is getting moved back this year, yea? Somehow I doubt gyms will follow suit, but I can hope.

D

I'm against coaches if they are used as a basis for how our team will perform. If they are used for comedy or other reasons, that's cool.

1) Nice new avatar Seadood

2) Against Coaches, but we should start another thread so it doesn't get lost IMO

3) Bobbo, if you're serious, how about this:

a) odds that Durant doesn't get better (by your judgement)?
b) odds that Durant becomes a borderline all-star for every year for the rest of his career (not by voting, by your judgement)?
c) odds that Durant becomes an easy all-star pick for every year for the rest of his career (not by voting, by your judgement)?
d) odds that Durant becomes an MVP candidate (top 5) for a couple years, and other than that is an easy all-star (top 15) (not by voting, by your judgement)?
e) odds that Durant is the GOAT (not by voting, by your judgement)?

I won't argue against yours (I might quote it and say "WOW" though), but my answer is 2, 28, 49.999999, 20, .000001 (this does not factor in injury, but Durant's only injury I can remember, is this one and I don't think he missed any time because of it.)

Lloyd: What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me... ending up together?
Mary: Well, that's pretty difficult to say.
Lloyd: Hit me with it! I've come a long way to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Mary: I'd say more like one out of a million.
[pause]
Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance.

Keep it as it is.

BTW, Sam Cassell's PER was about the same as Durant's. Also, Cassell won the same amount of win shares in fewer games. Cassell's ORtg was higher and his DRtg was lower.

Does anyone still think these metrics are completely valid? Or do you all realize that, while useful, they have gigantic flaws.

a. odds he flat lines? probably 15%. small chance, but again, THAT (what he is now) is his floor.
b. borderline all star, you mean like a guy who MAKES the team (but shouldnt) or a guy who gets SNUBBED from the team (but perhaps should)? in either event, i'd say 50%
c. if this is "easy choice" like carmelo easy, than it goes up, but by my judgment (like in a category of a wade, kg, kobe, etc "easy" selection) less than 15%
d. i would say never, but i suppose 1%
e. never

with your edit, i think we disagree mainly on:
a. chance he busts (i think he's 7x more likely to bust than you do)
b. i think he's more likely to become a near all star player than you do (really, only a 28%? slightly greater than 1 in 4? this doesnt sound like the tbach i know)
c. uhh, buddy, you went from 28 to 50, you should be saying 78->50. you're saying there's a 78% that he becomes a near all star player or better which is absurd, of course
d. you think there is a 1 in 5 chance he's a MVP for a couple of years ? LOL. I will give you 5 to 1 on however much money you want that he is not a top 5 vote candidate over the duration of his career for 3 or more years. since you wont be busto by the time his career ends (20 yrs?) this seems like a fair margin.
e. "does not factor in injury" lol teddy you are too much. turning into epi.

I think they accurately show that Sam Cassell was better this year than Kevin Durant.

vote against coaches

can't do that then someone else drafts jeanie and you get Phil for a couple years before he jets

Addressing your bottom points:
a) Yes, yes you do. Which is pretty shocking IMO. I almost went back and edited the 2% to 1%. 6-to-1 (barring injury) that he doesn't flatline. Phone call me.
b/c) For the record, the following players are at C's level: 'Melo, T-Mac, Iverson, Vince Carter, PP, Ray Allen. IMO the Seattle organization agrees with me, and they're lead by Sam Presti.
d) We can work out some sort of bet featuring (a) and (d)
e) Um...you didn't factor in injury either? It's an important assumption, but if you want me to factor in injury, I'll say his career will be derailed by injury 7% of the time, so if you want, you can proportionally take away those points from my previous percentages.

Also, you say that Kevin Durant will "never" be the GOAT. I'd like to put .01 on that please.

Edit- no it shouldn't be 78--> 50 because it's that caliber of player. Borderline all-star =! All-star. Please be a little more serious and a little less nitpicky/condescending in future posts.